SEOUL. Minyak mentah pertahankan kenaikan terbesar dalam sembilan bulan setelah OPEC menyetujui pemangkasan pasokan pertama dalam delapan tahun, Kamis (1/12).

Mengacu Bloomberg, minyak West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman Januari naik sebanyak 68 sen ke US$ 50,12 per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange dan diperdagangkan di US$ 50,09 pada 14:55 siang di Seoul.

Kontrak minyak ini melonjak sebanyak US$ 4,21 menjadi ditutup pada US$ 49,44 per barel pada Rabu kemarin, di mana volume keseluruhan perdagangan di Nymex naik ke rekornya sebesar 2,5 juta kontrak, menurut data CME yang telah diperbarui dan dikumpulkan oleh Bloomberg. Harga naik 5,5 % pada November.

Sedangkan, minyak Brent untuk pengiriman Februari naik sebanyak 72 sen, atau 1,4 %, ke US$ 52,56 per barel di London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Kontrak Januari melonjak US$ 4,09, atau 8,8 %, berakhir pada US$ 50,47 per barel di hari Rabu.

OPEC sepakat untuk mengurangi produksi kolektif sebanyak 32,5 juta barel per hari, Menteri Perminyakan Iran Bijan Namdar Zanganeh mengatakan di Wina.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc dan Morgan Stanley mengatakan harga bisa naik sampai US$ 60 per barel.

http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/minyak-nangkring-di-level-us-50-per-barel
Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID

dollar small

New York detik- Harga minyak melonjak lebih dari 10% pada perdagangan Rabu, hingga menembus di atas US$ 50/barel. Ini merupakan kenaikan harian tertinggi di bulan ini. Penyebabnya negara produsen minyak anggota OPEC memutuskan untuk memangkas produksi minyak mereka, untuk pertama kalinya sejak 2008.

Pemangkasan produksi minyak oleh negara anggota Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) ini dilakukan untuk mendongkrak harga yang masih rendah.

Dalam sebulan ini, harga minyak tercatat naik hampir 5%. Meski begitu, kenaikan harga minyak ini diprediksi hanyalah sementara saja.

OPEC, yang produksi minyaknya mewakili 1/3 dari produksi minyak dunia, sepakat untuk memangkas produksinya sekitar 1,2 juta barel per hari, atau lebih dari 3%, menjadi 32,5 juta barel per hari. Ini disepakati dalam pertemuan OPEC di Wina, Austria.

Indonesia memutuskan membekukan keanggotaannya di OPEC, karena tidak mau memangkas produksi minyaknya. Lihat di sini.

Arab Saudi sebagai pemimpin OPEC, menyatakan bakal memangkas produksi minyaknya hingga 500.000 barel per hari, menjadi 10,06 juta barel per hari. Kemudian Iran, produsen minyak terbesar kedua di OPEC, juga sepakat memangkas produksi minyaknya 200.000 barel per hari menjadi 4,351 juta barel per hari.

Selain OPEC, Rusia yang juga produsen minyak besar dunia non OPEC, sepakat memangkas produksi minyaknya sebesar 300.000 barel per hari.

Kondisi ini membuat harga minyak langsung naik. Harga kontrak minyak jenis West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman Januari naik US$ 4,21/barel (9,6%) menjadi US$ 49,44/barel. Sepanjang perdagangan, harga minyak WTI sempat naik 10% lebih.

Harga minyak jenis Brent untuk pengiriman Januari naik US$ 4,09/barel (8,82%0 menjadi US$ 50,47/barel.

“Akan memakan waktu untuk melihat siapa yang akan menghidupkan aturan (pemangkasan produksi) itu,” kata Analis, Oliver Sloup, dilansir dari Reuters, Kamis (1/12/2016).

Kuwait, Venezuela, dan Algeria disebut juga siap menyesuaikan diri dengan kesepakatan pemangkasan produksi oleh OPEC. (wdl/wdl)

lol

SINGAPURA. Harga minyak naik sekitar 1 % pada hari Senin (21/11) karena OPEC mendekati kesepakatan pembatasan produksi untuk mengendalikan pasokan yang telah menekan harga selama lebih dari dua tahun.

Mengutip Reuters, minyak mentah berjangka Brent diperdagangkan pada US$ 47,31 per barel naik 65 sen, atau 0,96 %. Sedangkan, minyak West Texas Intermediate (WTI) naik 0,9 %, atau 41 sen, di US$ 46,10 per barel.

Para pedagang mengatakan pasar tengah mendapatkan sokongan dari rencana negara-negara pengekspor minyak memangkas produksinya.”Minyak mentah akan terus didorong oleh berita pertemuan 30 November mengenai pengurangan produksi,” kata ANZ Bank.

Asal tahu, rencana pemangkasan produksi berulang kali gagal. Beberapa negara produsen minyak, termasuk Iran enggan menyepakati kesepakatan ini.

Namun, kesepakatan ini kian mendekati kenyataan setelah kemungkinan Iran akan diberikan pengecualian. “Saya pikir akan ada semacam kesepakatan pekan depan,” kata Matt Stanley, broker minyak Freight Investor Services.

http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/minyak-naik-sekitar-1-dipicu-kabar-dari-opec
Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID

 buttrock

Riyadh, Oct 19, 2016 (AFP)
Saudi Arabia plans to raise up to $17.5 billion from its first international bond issue, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, as analysts expect strong buyer interest.

It would make the Saudi issue the largest ever from an emerging-market nation, said Bloomberg News, which cited two people with knowledge of the offer.

The figure exceeds the $15 billion which an analyst had previously told AFP could be the value of the issue.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, projected a budget deficit of $87 billion this year after a fall in oil revenues, which still account for most of its income.

To cover the shortfall, Saudi Arabia is re-orienting its economy by imposing unprecedented subsidy cuts, slowing government projects, and in September it chopped cabinet ministers’ salaries, among other measures.

The kingdom last week began meetings with potential investors ahead of the bond issue.

According to the sources cited by Bloomberg News, the kingdom plans to sell dollar-denominated five-year bonds yielding about 140 basis points above US treasuries with similar maturity.

Saudi Arabia will also issue 10-year notes and 30-year securities at a premium, the report said.

It added the proposed pricing is also higher than neighbour Qatar’s bonds which offer a similar maturity.

Christopher Dembik, global head of macroeconomic research at France’s Saxo Bank, told AFP the kingdom’s offer “is going to arouse strong interest on the part of investors”, and could be four or five times oversubscribed.

He said investors are desperately looking for yield, and the Saudi offer “will be certainly slightly above that of its neighbours because of its less favourable sovereign debt rating and a recent global trend towards higher sovereign rates,” he said.

Saudi Arabia has already issued domestic bonds but that has led to a tightening of bank liquidity, according to Patrick Dennis, lead Middle East economist at Oxford Economics in London.

– Helping to fund deficit –

“So that’s the main reason why they’re now borrowing overseas,” he told AFP.

Saudi banks’ loan-to-deposit ratio rose for the fifth consecutive month in August, reaching 90.8 percent, because of faster growth in credit relative to deposits, Riyadh’s Jadwa Investment said in a report this month.

Borrowing abroad also reduces the drain on the kingdom’s foreign reserves, Dennis said.

Official data show those reserves declined to $562 billion in August from $732 billion at the end of 2014.

The reserves remain very large but their rapid drawdown shows a need for diversified funding, Dennis said.

London-based Capital Economics said in a briefing paper that Saudi reserves are now “unlikely to fall much beyond their current level in the coming years” because the bond issue will finance around a third of next year’s budget deficit and almost all of the current account shortfall.

In April the kingdom released its wide-ranging Vision 2030 for diversifying the economy.

At its heart is a plan to float less than five percent of state oil company Saudi Aramco on the stock market.

The proceeds would help form what will become the world’s biggest state investment fund, with around $2 trillion in assets.

With prospects good for the current international bond issue, Dembik foresees Saudi Arabia borrowing $15 billion to $20 billion annually in the market to help finance its economic transformation plan.

lol

NEW YORK kontan. Wall Street tampak sumringah pada transaksi penutupan tadi malam (10/10). Mengutip data CNBC, pada pukul 16.00 waktu New York, indeksDow Jones Industrial Average naik 0,49% menjadi 18.329,04.

Saham ExxonMobil mencatatkan kenaikan tertinggi dan saham Procter & Gamble menjadi saham dengan penurunan terdalam.

Adapun indeks S&P 500 naik 9.92 poin atau 0,46% menjadi 2,163,66. Sektor energi memimpin kenaikan di antara seluruh sektor lainnya.

Sementara, indeks Nasdaq ditutup dengan kenaikan 36,27 poin atau 0,69% menjadi 5.328,67.

Dalam setiap sembilan saham yang naik, terdapat satu saham yang tertekan di New York Stock Exchange. Volume transaksi perdagangan tadi malam melibatkan 669,28 juta saham dan volume transaksi gabungan mencapai 2,817 miliar saham.

Sektor energi memberikan vitamin kuat bagi Wall Street pasca debat calon presiden AS kedua.

“Sebenarnya kondisi di market cukup tenang. Saya rasa pergerakannya masih akan seperti ini hingga ada rilis terbaru mengenai data makro,” jelas Craig Sterling, head of US equity research Pioneer Investment.

Sedangkan Adam Sarhan, CEO Sarhan Capital menambahkan, market mendapatkan sedikit kepastian dari OPEC dan hal inilah yang menjadi faktor bullish bagi pasar saham.

Sekadar informasi, harga kontrak minyak West Texas Intermediate naik 3,1% menjadi US $51,35 per barel. Sedangkan harga minyak Brent menyentuh level tertinggi dalam setahun terakhir.

Pemicunya, Presiden Rusia Vladimir Putin mengatakan bahwa Rusia siap untuk bergabung dalam pemangkasan produksi minyak oleh anggota OPEC.

Putin, saat menyampaikan pidato di kongres energi di Istanbul Turki, mengatakan dirinya berharap anggota OPEC dapat memberikan konfirmasi mengenai keputusan kuota produksi saat organisasi ini menggelar pertemuan pada November mendatang.

 ets-small

the economist: ALONG with bank runs and market crashes, oil shocks have rare power to set monsters loose. Starting with the Arab oil embargo of 1973, people have learnt that sudden surges in the price of oil cause economic havoc. Conversely, when the price slumps because of a glut, as in 1986, it has done the world a power of good. The rule of thumb is that a 10% fall in oil prices boosts growth by 0.1-0.5 percentage points.

In the past 18 months the price has fallen by 75%, from $110 a barrel to below $27. Yet this time the benefits are less certain. Although consumers have gained, producers are suffering grievously. The effects are spilling into financial markets, and could yet depress consumer confidence. Perhaps the benefits of such ultra-cheap oil still outweigh the costs, but markets have fallen so far so fast that even this is no longer clear.

The new economics of oil

The world is drowning in oil. Saudi Arabia is pumping at almost full tilt. It is widely thought that the Saudis want to drive out higher-cost producers from the industry, including some of the fracking firms that have boosted oil output in the United States from 5m barrels a day (b/d) in 2008 to over 9m b/d now. Saudi Arabia will also be prepared to suffer a lot of pain to thwart Iran, its bitter rival, which this week was poised to rejoin oil markets as nuclear sanctions were lifted, with potential output of 3m-4m b/d.

Despite the Saudis’ efforts, however, producers have proved resilient. Many frackers have eked out efficiencies. They hate the idea of plugging their wells only for the wildcatter on the next block to reap the reward when prices rebound. They will not pack up so long as prices cover day-to-day costs, in some cases as low as $15 a barrel (see article). Meanwhile oil stocks in the mostly rich-country OECD in October stood at 267 days’ net imports, almost 50% higher than five years earlier. They will continue to grow, especially if demand slows by more than expected in China and the rest of Asia. Forecasting the oil price is a mug’s game (as the newspaper that once speculated about $5 oil, we speak from experience), but few expect it to start rising before 2017. Today’s price could mark the bottom of the barrel. Some are predicting a trough of as low as $10.

The lower the better, you might say. Look at how cheap oil has boosted importers, from Europe to South Asia. The euro area’s oil-import bill has fallen by 2% of GDP since mid-2014. India has become the world’s fastest-growing large economy.

Yet the latest lurch down is also a source of anxiety. Collapsing revenues could bring political instability to fragile parts of the world, such as Venezuela and the Gulf, and fuel rivalries in the Middle East. Cheap oil has a green lining, as it drags down the global price of natural gas, which crowds out coal, a dirtier fuel. But in the long run, cheap fossil fuels reduce the incentive to act on climate change. Most worrying of all is the corrosive new economics of oil.

In the past cheap oil has buoyed the world economy because consumers spend much more out of one extra dollar in their pocket than producers do. Today that reckoning is less straightforward than it was. American consumers may have been saving more than was expected. Oil producers are tightening their belts, having spent extravagantly when prices were high. After the latest drop in crude prices, Russia announced a 10% cut in public spending (see article). Even Saudi Arabia is slashing its budget to deal with its deficit of 15% of GDP.

Cheap oil also hurts demand in more important ways. When crude was over $100 a barrel it made sense to spend on exploration in out-of-the-way provinces, such as the Arctic, west Africa and deep below the saline rock off the coast of Brazil. As prices have tumbled, so has investment. Projects worth $380 billion have been put on hold. In America spending on fixed assets in the oil industry has fallen by half from its peak. The poison has spread: the purchasing managers’ index for December, of 48.2, registered an accelerating contraction across the whole of American manufacturing. In Brazil the harm to Petrobras, the national oil company, from the oil price has been exacerbated by a corruption scandal that has paralysed the highest echelons of government.

The fall in investment and asset prices is all the more harmful because it is so rapid. As oil collapses against the backdrop of a fragile world economy, it could trigger defaults.

The possible financial spillovers are hard to assess. Much of the $650 billion rise in emerging-market corporate debt since 2007 has been in oil and commodity industries. Oil plays a central role in a clutch of emerging markets prone to trouble. With GDP in Russia falling, the government could well face a budgetary crisis within months. Venezuela, where inflation is above 140%, has declared an economic state of emergency.

Other oil producers are prone to a similar, if milder, cycle of weaker growth, a falling currency, imported inflation and tighter monetary policy. Central banks in Colombia and Mexico raised interest rates in December. Nigeria is rationing dollars in a desperate (probably doomed) effort to boost its currency.

There are strains in rich countries, too. Yields on corporate high-yield bonds have jumped from about 6.5% in mid-2015 to 9.7% today. Investors’ aversion spread quickly from energy firms to all borrowers. With bears stalking equity markets, global indices are plumbing 30-month lows (see article). Central bankers in rich countries worry that persistent low inflation will feed expectations of static or falling prices—in effect, raising real interest rates. Policymakers’ ability to respond is constrained because rates, close to zero, cannot be cut much more.

Make the best of it

The oil-price drop creates vast numbers of winners in India and China. It gives oil-dependent economies like Saudi Arabia and Venezuela an urgent reason to embrace reform. It offers oil importers, like South Korea, a chance to tear up wasteful energy subsidies—or boost inflation and curb deficits by raising taxes. But this oil shock comes as the world economy is still coping with the aftermath of the financial crash. You might think that there could be no better time for a boost. In fact, the world could yet be laid low by an oil monster on the prowl.