HARGA JUAL: faktor ini MUTLAK bwat SEMUA INDUSTRI
jika harga jual RENDAH, bahkan DI BAWAH TITIK IMPAS (breakeven point) maka industri RUGI
jika harga jual TINGGI, bahkan JAUH di atas titik impas, maka industri UNTUNG
semua industri INGIN UNTUNG, tidak mau RUGI
karna RUGI MENGGEROGOTI MODAL (termasuk mengurangi MODAL KERJA), bahkan bisa ZERO MODAL, jika tidak berhati-hati; NAMUN industri bisa menambah modal lewat PINJAMAN/ kredit
bahkan kredit pun ADA BATAS (waktu, jumlah yang bisa diperoleh)
jadi industri minyak bumi pun TERKENA HUKUM RUGI-LABA seperti ini, tak terelakkan
dampak bwat IMPORTIR MINYAK BUMI GLOBAL: jika harga rendah, maka biaya produksi industri penyerap energi minyak akan RENDAH; kesempatan mencetak LABA lebe GEDE
namun bila JUMLAH EKSPORTIR MINYAK MENYUSUT akibat alasan RUGI, n KREDIT tlah tersedot abis-abisan, maka harga jual MERANGKAK NAEK lah, bisa TINGGI KEMBALI
strategi ini yang diterapkan oleh Arab Saudi sebagai PENGEKSPOR MINYAK TERBESAR global
namun karna ternyata ARAB SAUDI SENDIRI MENANGGUNG RUGI RAKSASA akibat harga jual minyak rendah, maka SAAT INI (sekira April n Oktober 2016) produksi minyak global disepakati akan dibekukan bahkan DIKURANGI, sehingga pasokan minyak global turun (lalu efek Hukum Ekuilibrium Ekonomi berlaku) yang memicu kenaekan harga minyak lage
SEOUL. Minyak mentah pertahankan kenaikan terbesar dalam sembilan bulan setelah OPEC menyetujui pemangkasan pasokan pertama dalam delapan tahun, Kamis (1/12).
Mengacu Bloomberg, minyak West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman Januari naik sebanyak 68 sen ke US$ 50,12 per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange dan diperdagangkan di US$ 50,09 pada 14:55 siang di Seoul.
Kontrak minyak ini melonjak sebanyak US$ 4,21 menjadi ditutup pada US$ 49,44 per barel pada Rabu kemarin, di mana volume keseluruhan perdagangan di Nymex naik ke rekornya sebesar 2,5 juta kontrak, menurut data CME yang telah diperbarui dan dikumpulkan oleh Bloomberg. Harga naik 5,5 % pada November.
Sedangkan, minyak Brent untuk pengiriman Februari naik sebanyak 72 sen, atau 1,4 %, ke US$ 52,56 per barel di London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Kontrak Januari melonjak US$ 4,09, atau 8,8 %, berakhir pada US$ 50,47 per barel di hari Rabu.
OPEC sepakat untuk mengurangi produksi kolektif sebanyak 32,5 juta barel per hari, Menteri Perminyakan Iran Bijan Namdar Zanganeh mengatakan di Wina.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc dan Morgan Stanley mengatakan harga bisa naik sampai US$ 60 per barel.
Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID
New York detik- Harga minyak melonjak lebih dari 10% pada perdagangan Rabu, hingga menembus di atas US$ 50/barel. Ini merupakan kenaikan harian tertinggi di bulan ini. Penyebabnya negara produsen minyak anggota OPEC memutuskan untuk memangkas produksi minyak mereka, untuk pertama kalinya sejak 2008.
Pemangkasan produksi minyak oleh negara anggota Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) ini dilakukan untuk mendongkrak harga yang masih rendah.
Dalam sebulan ini, harga minyak tercatat naik hampir 5%. Meski begitu, kenaikan harga minyak ini diprediksi hanyalah sementara saja.
OPEC, yang produksi minyaknya mewakili 1/3 dari produksi minyak dunia, sepakat untuk memangkas produksinya sekitar 1,2 juta barel per hari, atau lebih dari 3%, menjadi 32,5 juta barel per hari. Ini disepakati dalam pertemuan OPEC di Wina, Austria.
Indonesia memutuskan membekukan keanggotaannya di OPEC, karena tidak mau memangkas produksi minyaknya. Lihat di sini.
Arab Saudi sebagai pemimpin OPEC, menyatakan bakal memangkas produksi minyaknya hingga 500.000 barel per hari, menjadi 10,06 juta barel per hari. Kemudian Iran, produsen minyak terbesar kedua di OPEC, juga sepakat memangkas produksi minyaknya 200.000 barel per hari menjadi 4,351 juta barel per hari.
Selain OPEC, Rusia yang juga produsen minyak besar dunia non OPEC, sepakat memangkas produksi minyaknya sebesar 300.000 barel per hari.
Kondisi ini membuat harga minyak langsung naik. Harga kontrak minyak jenis West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman Januari naik US$ 4,21/barel (9,6%) menjadi US$ 49,44/barel. Sepanjang perdagangan, harga minyak WTI sempat naik 10% lebih.
Harga minyak jenis Brent untuk pengiriman Januari naik US$ 4,09/barel (8,82%0 menjadi US$ 50,47/barel.
“Akan memakan waktu untuk melihat siapa yang akan menghidupkan aturan (pemangkasan produksi) itu,” kata Analis, Oliver Sloup, dilansir dari Reuters, Kamis (1/12/2016).
Kuwait, Venezuela, dan Algeria disebut juga siap menyesuaikan diri dengan kesepakatan pemangkasan produksi oleh OPEC. (wdl/wdl)
SINGAPURA. Harga minyak naik sekitar 1 % pada hari Senin (21/11) karena OPEC mendekati kesepakatan pembatasan produksi untuk mengendalikan pasokan yang telah menekan harga selama lebih dari dua tahun.
Mengutip Reuters, minyak mentah berjangka Brent diperdagangkan pada US$ 47,31 per barel naik 65 sen, atau 0,96 %. Sedangkan, minyak West Texas Intermediate (WTI) naik 0,9 %, atau 41 sen, di US$ 46,10 per barel.
Para pedagang mengatakan pasar tengah mendapatkan sokongan dari rencana negara-negara pengekspor minyak memangkas produksinya.”Minyak mentah akan terus didorong oleh berita pertemuan 30 November mengenai pengurangan produksi,” kata ANZ Bank.
Asal tahu, rencana pemangkasan produksi berulang kali gagal. Beberapa negara produsen minyak, termasuk Iran enggan menyepakati kesepakatan ini.
Namun, kesepakatan ini kian mendekati kenyataan setelah kemungkinan Iran akan diberikan pengecualian. “Saya pikir akan ada semacam kesepakatan pekan depan,” kata Matt Stanley, broker minyak Freight Investor Services.
Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID
Riyadh, Oct 19, 2016 (AFP)
Saudi Arabia plans to raise up to $17.5 billion from its first international bond issue, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, as analysts expect strong buyer interest.
It would make the Saudi issue the largest ever from an emerging-market nation, said Bloomberg News, which cited two people with knowledge of the offer.
The figure exceeds the $15 billion which an analyst had previously told AFP could be the value of the issue.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, projected a budget deficit of $87 billion this year after a fall in oil revenues, which still account for most of its income.
To cover the shortfall, Saudi Arabia is re-orienting its economy by imposing unprecedented subsidy cuts, slowing government projects, and in September it chopped cabinet ministers’ salaries, among other measures.
The kingdom last week began meetings with potential investors ahead of the bond issue.
According to the sources cited by Bloomberg News, the kingdom plans to sell dollar-denominated five-year bonds yielding about 140 basis points above US treasuries with similar maturity.
Saudi Arabia will also issue 10-year notes and 30-year securities at a premium, the report said.
It added the proposed pricing is also higher than neighbour Qatar’s bonds which offer a similar maturity.
Christopher Dembik, global head of macroeconomic research at France’s Saxo Bank, told AFP the kingdom’s offer “is going to arouse strong interest on the part of investors”, and could be four or five times oversubscribed.
He said investors are desperately looking for yield, and the Saudi offer “will be certainly slightly above that of its neighbours because of its less favourable sovereign debt rating and a recent global trend towards higher sovereign rates,” he said.
Saudi Arabia has already issued domestic bonds but that has led to a tightening of bank liquidity, according to Patrick Dennis, lead Middle East economist at Oxford Economics in London.
– Helping to fund deficit –
“So that’s the main reason why they’re now borrowing overseas,” he told AFP.
Saudi banks’ loan-to-deposit ratio rose for the fifth consecutive month in August, reaching 90.8 percent, because of faster growth in credit relative to deposits, Riyadh’s Jadwa Investment said in a report this month.
Borrowing abroad also reduces the drain on the kingdom’s foreign reserves, Dennis said.
Official data show those reserves declined to $562 billion in August from $732 billion at the end of 2014.
The reserves remain very large but their rapid drawdown shows a need for diversified funding, Dennis said.
London-based Capital Economics said in a briefing paper that Saudi reserves are now “unlikely to fall much beyond their current level in the coming years” because the bond issue will finance around a third of next year’s budget deficit and almost all of the current account shortfall.
In April the kingdom released its wide-ranging Vision 2030 for diversifying the economy.
At its heart is a plan to float less than five percent of state oil company Saudi Aramco on the stock market.
The proceeds would help form what will become the world’s biggest state investment fund, with around $2 trillion in assets.
With prospects good for the current international bond issue, Dembik foresees Saudi Arabia borrowing $15 billion to $20 billion annually in the market to help finance its economic transformation plan.
NEW YORK kontan. Wall Street tampak sumringah pada transaksi penutupan tadi malam (10/10). Mengutip data CNBC, pada pukul 16.00 waktu New York, indeksDow Jones Industrial Average naik 0,49% menjadi 18.329,04.
Saham ExxonMobil mencatatkan kenaikan tertinggi dan saham Procter & Gamble menjadi saham dengan penurunan terdalam.
Adapun indeks S&P 500 naik 9.92 poin atau 0,46% menjadi 2,163,66. Sektor energi memimpin kenaikan di antara seluruh sektor lainnya.
Sementara, indeks Nasdaq ditutup dengan kenaikan 36,27 poin atau 0,69% menjadi 5.328,67.
Dalam setiap sembilan saham yang naik, terdapat satu saham yang tertekan di New York Stock Exchange. Volume transaksi perdagangan tadi malam melibatkan 669,28 juta saham dan volume transaksi gabungan mencapai 2,817 miliar saham.
Sektor energi memberikan vitamin kuat bagi Wall Street pasca debat calon presiden AS kedua.
“Sebenarnya kondisi di market cukup tenang. Saya rasa pergerakannya masih akan seperti ini hingga ada rilis terbaru mengenai data makro,” jelas Craig Sterling, head of US equity research Pioneer Investment.
Sedangkan Adam Sarhan, CEO Sarhan Capital menambahkan, market mendapatkan sedikit kepastian dari OPEC dan hal inilah yang menjadi faktor bullish bagi pasar saham.
Sekadar informasi, harga kontrak minyak West Texas Intermediate naik 3,1% menjadi US $51,35 per barel. Sedangkan harga minyak Brent menyentuh level tertinggi dalam setahun terakhir.
Pemicunya, Presiden Rusia Vladimir Putin mengatakan bahwa Rusia siap untuk bergabung dalam pemangkasan produksi minyak oleh anggota OPEC.
Putin, saat menyampaikan pidato di kongres energi di Istanbul Turki, mengatakan dirinya berharap anggota OPEC dapat memberikan konfirmasi mengenai keputusan kuota produksi saat organisasi ini menggelar pertemuan pada November mendatang.
the economist: ALONG with bank runs and market crashes, oil shocks have rare power to set monsters loose. Starting with the Arab oil embargo of 1973, people have learnt that sudden surges in the price of oil cause economic havoc. Conversely, when the price slumps because of a glut, as in 1986, it has done the world a power of good. The rule of thumb is that a 10% fall in oil prices boosts growth by 0.1-0.5 percentage points.
In the past 18 months the price has fallen by 75%, from $110 a barrel to below $27. Yet this time the benefits are less certain. Although consumers have gained, producers are suffering grievously. The effects are spilling into financial markets, and could yet depress consumer confidence. Perhaps the benefits of such ultra-cheap oil still outweigh the costs, but markets have fallen so far so fast that even this is no longer clear.
The new economics of oil
The world is drowning in oil. Saudi Arabia is pumping at almost full tilt. It is widely thought that the Saudis want to drive out higher-cost producers from the industry, including some of the fracking firms that have boosted oil output in the United States from 5m barrels a day (b/d) in 2008 to over 9m b/d now. Saudi Arabia will also be prepared to suffer a lot of pain to thwart Iran, its bitter rival, which this week was poised to rejoin oil markets as nuclear sanctions were lifted, with potential output of 3m-4m b/d.
Despite the Saudis’ efforts, however, producers have proved resilient. Many frackers have eked out efficiencies. They hate the idea of plugging their wells only for the wildcatter on the next block to reap the reward when prices rebound. They will not pack up so long as prices cover day-to-day costs, in some cases as low as $15 a barrel (see article). Meanwhile oil stocks in the mostly rich-country OECD in October stood at 267 days’ net imports, almost 50% higher than five years earlier. They will continue to grow, especially if demand slows by more than expected in China and the rest of Asia. Forecasting the oil price is a mug’s game (as the newspaper that once speculated about $5 oil, we speak from experience), but few expect it to start rising before 2017. Today’s price could mark the bottom of the barrel. Some are predicting a trough of as low as $10.
The lower the better, you might say. Look at how cheap oil has boosted importers, from Europe to South Asia. The euro area’s oil-import bill has fallen by 2% of GDP since mid-2014. India has become the world’s fastest-growing large economy.
Yet the latest lurch down is also a source of anxiety. Collapsing revenues could bring political instability to fragile parts of the world, such as Venezuela and the Gulf, and fuel rivalries in the Middle East. Cheap oil has a green lining, as it drags down the global price of natural gas, which crowds out coal, a dirtier fuel. But in the long run, cheap fossil fuels reduce the incentive to act on climate change. Most worrying of all is the corrosive new economics of oil.
In the past cheap oil has buoyed the world economy because consumers spend much more out of one extra dollar in their pocket than producers do. Today that reckoning is less straightforward than it was. American consumers may have been saving more than was expected. Oil producers are tightening their belts, having spent extravagantly when prices were high. After the latest drop in crude prices, Russia announced a 10% cut in public spending (see article). Even Saudi Arabia is slashing its budget to deal with its deficit of 15% of GDP.
Cheap oil also hurts demand in more important ways. When crude was over $100 a barrel it made sense to spend on exploration in out-of-the-way provinces, such as the Arctic, west Africa and deep below the saline rock off the coast of Brazil. As prices have tumbled, so has investment. Projects worth $380 billion have been put on hold. In America spending on fixed assets in the oil industry has fallen by half from its peak. The poison has spread: the purchasing managers’ index for December, of 48.2, registered an accelerating contraction across the whole of American manufacturing. In Brazil the harm to Petrobras, the national oil company, from the oil price has been exacerbated by a corruption scandal that has paralysed the highest echelons of government.
The fall in investment and asset prices is all the more harmful because it is so rapid. As oil collapses against the backdrop of a fragile world economy, it could trigger defaults.
The possible financial spillovers are hard to assess. Much of the $650 billion rise in emerging-market corporate debt since 2007 has been in oil and commodity industries. Oil plays a central role in a clutch of emerging markets prone to trouble. With GDP in Russia falling, the government could well face a budgetary crisis within months. Venezuela, where inflation is above 140%, has declared an economic state of emergency.
Other oil producers are prone to a similar, if milder, cycle of weaker growth, a falling currency, imported inflation and tighter monetary policy. Central banks in Colombia and Mexico raised interest rates in December. Nigeria is rationing dollars in a desperate (probably doomed) effort to boost its currency.
There are strains in rich countries, too. Yields on corporate high-yield bonds have jumped from about 6.5% in mid-2015 to 9.7% today. Investors’ aversion spread quickly from energy firms to all borrowers. With bears stalking equity markets, global indices are plumbing 30-month lows (see article). Central bankers in rich countries worry that persistent low inflation will feed expectations of static or falling prices—in effect, raising real interest rates. Policymakers’ ability to respond is constrained because rates, close to zero, cannot be cut much more.
Make the best of it
The oil-price drop creates vast numbers of winners in India and China. It gives oil-dependent economies like Saudi Arabia and Venezuela an urgent reason to embrace reform. It offers oil importers, like South Korea, a chance to tear up wasteful energy subsidies—or boost inflation and curb deficits by raising taxes. But this oil shock comes as the world economy is still coping with the aftermath of the financial crash. You might think that there could be no better time for a boost. In fact, the world could yet be laid low by an oil monster on the prowl.
JAKARTA kontan. Meskipun Kamis (6/10) sore sempat terkoreksi, harga minyak mentah masih dalam tren kenaikan sebagaimana prediksi para analis. Mengutip dataBloomberg, pukul 16.38 WIB, minyak West Texas Intermediate (WTI) pengiriman November di New York Mercantile Exchange sedikit tergelincir 0,10% ke level US$49,78 per barel setelah sesi sebelumnya pada level US$49,83 per barel.
Kini secara perlahan-lahan minyak mulai bangkit kembali. Pada pukul 20.06 WIB,minyak WTI menanjak ke level US$50,24 per barel. Ini merupakan kali pertamaminyak berada di atas US$50 per barel sejak Juni.
Analis SoeGee Futures Nizar Hilmy melihat, harga minyak memang sudah diprediksi akan melonjak naik pasca pertemuan informal negara-negara anggota Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) di Aljazair.
“Pada pertemuan itu, mereka sepakat untuk mengurangi produksi sampai 33 juta barel per hari, bahkan mereka mencari peluang untuk mengajak negara-negara yang bukan anggota OPEC untuk ikut menurunkan output produksi mereka, dan hal itu membantu mengangkat sedikit harga minyak di pasar,” katanya.
Nizar juga menilai koreksi tipis harga minyak pada Kamis (6/10) juga ditopang oleh momentum perjanjian negara-negara anggota OPEC dua pekan lalu yang mulai menurun. Apalagi, pada Kamis (6/10) ini, Aramco, perusahaan plat merah Arab Saudi malah memberi korting pada harga jual minyaknya sampai 45 sen per barel untuk pasar di Asia.
Selain itu, untuk ekspor di pasar AS dan Eropa, Aramco berencana untuk memotong harga jualnya pada bulan November tahun ini. Pemotongan harga jual ini, menurut Nizar adalah sebuah pembuktian bahwa supply di pasarminyak mentah masih berlimpah, maka pemangkasan output produksi OPECdiharapkan segera terealisasi.
Dia melihat, ke depan harga minyak akan tergantung sejauh mana kesepakatan negara-negara OPEC di Aljazair dipatuhi dan dijalankan. Kalau pemangkasan ini benar-benar terjadi, akan ada perubahan yang signifikan terhadap pasokanminyak mentah dunia dan memicu tren kenaikan harga minyak lebih tinggi.
Selain itu, di benua Amerika sedang banyak badai berkecamuk hingga akhir tahun. Hal ini diyakini Nizar sebagai faktor penghambat produksi minyak global, sehingga dapat kembali menggenjot harga.
oil price : Market enthusiasm around the OPEC deal has facillated significantly over the last week, alternating between optimism and pessimism. A healthy segment of investors view the current agreement with skepticism given the competing geopolitical interests of Iran and Saudi Arabia. And while that skepticism may turn out to be unwarranted; it is certainly possible that one or more of the OPEC members will cheat on any production agreement and overproduce, especially given the lack of effective monitoring mechanisms in place to control production.
None of that matters much though. The more significant point about the OPEC agreement that investors may be missing is the sign of shifting attitudes that it portends. An agreement between two foes as intractable as the Saudis and Iran suggests that OPEC has finally accepted an important reality – they cannot turn back time. While U.S. unconventional production has been curtailed, only a fool would believe it has been hobbled permanently. As oil prices start to rise, U.S. production will likely rise as well.
OPEC seems to have finally accepted the fact that they are not as strong as they once were, and that the market forces behind unconventional production in the U.S., Canada, and abroad are not as weak as OPEC had supposed. While a few U.S. firms have been bankrupted by the last few years, those bankruptcies have only served to strengthen top tier players in the space like Devon and Continental.
Far from shutting down U.S. production, OPEC’s actions have only helped to lower costs by putting pressure on the overall supply chain and associated prices. This has made unconventional crude more profitable at lower prices and exacerbated the problem that OPEC started with. Where unconventional crude producers once needed $80 per barrel oil prices to succeed, today breakeven levels are closer to $40.
OPEC appears to have finally given up the dream of crushing U.S. production and returning to a world in which the Cartel controlled the market. US producers may not be the lowest cost producers, but could well be the most flexible producers. OPEC’s actions did succeed in stalling new investment in future reserves development, but this hit both unconventional and conventional production in nearly equal measure.
If OPEC could have sustained a decade or more of low prices, eventually the curtailed E&P programs would have led to a structural shift in the oil markets and pushed new production down dramatically. OPEC never had that level of foreign currency reserves though. The Saudis would have needed at least $2 trillion more in reserves in order to sustain lower oil prices for a decade, and while that might be feasible for the Kingdom (with enormous asset sales and tapping international bond markets), most other members of OPEC would have run out of cash well before that ever occurred. To kill unconventional production, OPEC needed a scorched earth policy that its members were ill-prepared to adopt.
None of this means that oil is headed dramatically higher immediately or that companies will return the halcyon days of yesteryear. The market has changed. But OPEC’s production deal does signal acceptance of reality by the Cartel. Producers from the Saudis to Nigeria do not have the ability to withstand continued low prices. They are taking corrective action at this point because few options are left, and domestic political pressures are too great. Investors can capitalize on this trend. The current deal may or may not hold, but the game OPEC was playing for the last two years is coming to an end.
By Michael McDonald of Oilprice.com
cnbc: The commodities’ strategist who called the rally in crude this week says more gains are to come, as Saudi Arabia appears ready to play ball and scale back production—a move likely to boost oil prices.
“This speaks to the economic realities of lower oil prices that are really biting Saudi Arabia,” said top RBC commodities analyst Helima Croft on CNBC’s “Futures Now” this week. The world’s largest oil producer, along with other major oil producers, has struggled economically with crude languishing below $50 per barrel.
“Saudi Arabia really had to give considerable ground to accommodate the Iranian demands to get the deal done,” Croft told CNBC. “This is more than just a freeze. It’s actually cutting from current levels.”
A deal of this nature represents the first reduction since 2008. Once announced, the deal sent crude prices soaring over 5 percent on Wednesday before closing the week above $48. Now Croft, who has been calling for $50 oil for since the 2016 lows, explained that her firm remains bullish through the end of 2016, with the notion that a floor is now in place.
“It can continue to be choppy based on weekly stats, rig count numbers and broader macro trends,” she added. “But we think we are done with sub-$40, barring a major macro meltdown panic, and firms the case for 50’s by year end and trending into the 60’s next year.”
Croft told CNBC that her firm expects the pact to hold with a belief that the Saudis are willing to bear the lion’s share of the reductions needed to get down to 32.5 million barrels of oil produced each day globally by OPEC members.
The agreement, slated to go into effect in November, would require Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih to oversee major production cuts in order to help reduce nearly 1 million barrels from the market on a daily basis.
In a research note that claimed OPEC ‘blinked’, analysts at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch also said they expect oil prices to reach $60 by next year, and maintained a mid-2017 target of $70. Still, the move by OPEC underscored a new reality in world energy markets.
“We’ve gotten beyond the peak power generation,” explained Croft when discussing why cuts from top producers are realistic. “So Saudi production tends to trend down lower anyway. They’ll probably come in at their January numbers at 10.2 [million barrels a day].”
However, Croft addressed concerns that producers may now ramp production in the coming months to counter the November cuts. She strongly believes that OPEC is for real this time as members can’t sustain the low price of oil for much longer.
“Saudi Arabia was serious about doing this. I think they ramped production because of peak seasonal factors. That was a Summer ramp that we saw,” Croft added, referencing Saudi Arabia’s record output in June.
“Saudi Arabia needs the money and I think this speaks to domestic considerations,” Croft said. “That’s why they made this deal.”
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Harga minyak sampai akhir tahun sulit mencapai level US$50 per barel, jika tidak ada kesepakatan antara tiga kubu dalam membatasi produksi.
Tiga kubu tersebut ialah OPEC, non OPEC yang mencakup Rusia dan Oman, serta negara yang tidak berkelompok seperti AS dan Kanada.
Pada perdagangan Kamis (29/9/2016) pukul 16:28 WIB, harga minyak West Texas Intermediate (WTI) kontrak November 2016 turun 0,25 poin atau 0,53% menjadi US$46,8 per barel. Sementara itu, harga minyak Brent kontrak November 2016 merosot 0,43 poin atau 0,88% menjadi US$48,26 per barel.
Sebelumnya, harga minyak sempat mencatatkan kenaikan tertinggi sejak April 2016, karena OPEC untuk pertama kalinya menyepakati mengurangi produksi sejak 8 tahun terakhir. Kesepakatan informal ini dilakukan dalam agenda International Energy Forum di Aljazair.
Menteri Perminyakan Iran Bijan Namdar Zanganeh mengatakan, OPEC sepakat mengurangi produksi menjadi sekitar 32,5 juta — 33 juta barel per hari. Artinya, organisasi setuju memangkas pasokan baru sekitar 700.000 barel per hari dari level produksi sebelumnya sejumlah 33,24 juta barel per hari.
Ibrahim, Direktur Utama PT Garuda Berjangka, mengatakan selain faktor OPEC, harga minyak kemarin meningkat akibat dua faktor besar, yakni naiknya proyeksi pertumbuhan domestik bruto (PDB) China periode 2016 dan menurunya persediaan minyak AS.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) menaikkan proyeksi PDB China untuk tahun ini, dari sebelumnya 5,8% menjadi 6,6%. Sentimen ini turut memperkuat harga komoditas, seperti minyak, karena meningkatnya ekspektasi bertumbuhnya permintaan.
Harga minyak terdorong sentimen positif dari menurunnya persediaan minyak mentah mingguan AS. Data U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) yang dirilis Rabu (28/9) menunjukkan stok minyak mentah AS per Jumat (23/9/2016) menurun 1,88 juta barel menuju 502,7 juta barel.
Angka stok terbaru menunjukkan posisi terendah sejak awal Februari 2016. Selain itu, hasil ini melanjutkan tren positif pada pekan sebelumnya karena persediaan merosot 6,2 juta barel.
“Tanpa keputusan OPEC pun harga minyak berpotensi menghijau dengan adanya sentimen dari AS dan China. Karena langkah OPEC mengurangi produksi 700.00 barel per hari belum sesuai ekspektasi pasar,” tutur Ibrahim kepada Bisnis.com, Kamis (29/9/2016).
Menurutnya, saat ini suplai pasar minyak dikuasasi oleh tiga kubu, yakni OPEC, non OPEC yang mencakup Rusia dan Oman, serta negara yang tidak berkelompok seperti AS dan Kanada. Bila pembatasan produksi dilakukan secara serius, maka harus melibatkan ketiga kubu tersebut.
Sayangnya, meski OPEC menyuarakan pembatasan produksi, dua kubu lainnya belum mengonfrimasi akan turut serta. Alhasil harga minyak masih akan tertekan oleh surplus pasokan.
Ibrahim memprediksi, harga minyak hingga akhir tahun bergerak di level US$40,8–US$49 per barel. Harga bisa saja mencapai US$50 per barel, tetapi harus melewati level resistance kuat di US$49.
“Terlalu dini kalau menyebut harga dalam waktu dekat bisa ke US$50, karena level US$49 juta belum tercapai,” tandasnya.
Apalagi Federal Reserve dipercaya bakal mengerek suku bunga pada Desember 2016, sehingga menguatkan indeks dolar. Sentimen ini secara langsung akan menekan harga-harga komoditas, termasuk minyak mentah.
Crude oil was at a 13-year record $25 low in mid-January 2016 and has soared more than 70 per cent since. The battle is on again. We are talking about the mighty forces whipping up the oil prices. How does the investor work out where the oil price will go? Ultimately, you have to make your own forecasts, at least on the general, long term direction of oil prices – short term movements tend to be driven by news stores on the day. In particular, you need to take into consideration the following dimensions:
– Supply and demand: if producers are outstripping demand, prices will fall and if there is a shortage of oil, prices will rise.
– Political events: a war, rebellion or political uncertainty affecting major oil producers may prevent those countries from producing and selling, reducing the supply of oil.
– Economic growth: if demand is expected to grow faster than production, excess supply will be soaked up and shortages will arise.
– Related markets: the futures market, availability of transport, currency rates and the cost and of extraction equipment and labor can all affect the price of oil.
We took these factors into consideration when assessing six reasons for the recent rise in crude oil prices. Will this rally continue, or has the price peaked?
Weaker dollar raises oil prices
The market price of crude oil is valued in US dollars. Therefore, when the oil price falls or rises, you also need to look at the value of the dollar against a range of currencies. If an oil refinery in Chinaneeds to buy crude oil, it has to convert its income, derived in the local currency, Yuan into dollars. An oil producer, such as Saudi Arabia, needs to convert its income into the local currency, the Riyal in order to cover its costs. Large buyers go direct to suppliers in order to get a good price for their oil. China is particularly adept at this practice and has written up agreements to pay in its own currency for crude oil, rather than in dollars. So, if the value of the dollar falls by 10 per cent, the contract price of those agreement rises by 10 per cent, even though it hasn’t changed at all in the contract currency.
In fact, this phenomenon is notable in all commodities priced in dollars – steel, copper, gold, and silver have all experienced price rises in 2016. This is not because there is a shortage in those commodities; it is just because the currency in which they are priced has fallen.
To start with, oil prices rose in tandem with the decision of the Federal Reserve to keep its federal funds rate unchanged, prompting the dollar to fall. In a record of sorts, this is the third time the Federal Reserve left the rates where they were. The last hike was way back in December.
Subsequent to the decision, the Brent crude futures hit a new high of $47.19 per barrel. Brent, in fact, spiked nearly twenty percent in April, the largest monthly gain in 2016. For its part, the WTI too hit a 2016 high at $45.33. To put things in perspective, Brent was trading at just $26 a barrel at the start of 2016. That begs the question, how does a Federal Reserve rate impact the oil prices? Well, the answer lies in the alliance between interest rates and weak dollar. As we know, crude is traded internationally in dollars. If the dollar goes down versus other currencies, oil prices follow suit. That’s because a weak dollar makes commodities traded in it cheaper in the market, and all the more attractive and affordable for traders holding foreign currencies like Euro.
Alongside, the Federal Reserve also stopped referring to risky world financial conditions, thus implying improved market status. As such the Federal Reserve is expecting the world economies to pick up and use more oil to produce and for exchanges. Similarly, the World Bank also raised its forecast of crude oil prices to $41 per barrel in 2016 from its earlier estimate of $37 per barrel .
US oil inventories and storage space
In mid-April, the American Petroleum Industry reported a significant drop in deliveries to oil storage facilities and this information was echoed by the Energy Information Administration. Market reporters seized on this news as a sign that the excess of oil available on the market was reducing. Those headlines caused the price of crude oil to rise by 5 per cent in two days. What the news reports didn’t explain was that collections from the storage tanks drop even further than delivery levels, resulting in record levels of oil in storage – which indicates that the supply of oil is exceeding the demand for oil at an even greater rate than even before. That storage factor caused one of the largest rises in the price of oil in April – on inaccurately reported information.
As with the currency market, the trade in storage space can impact the price of oil. If all available space is full, no one can store up new oil production. As with any market, shortage of space causes the cost of storage to rise. Higher storage costs reduce the incentive to buy now, and increases the futures price of oil to near-contango. The traditional message of the futures market is that it indicates the direction of spot oil prices. Speculators read the forward price of oil as though it says “this will be the price of oil in 3 months time.” In fact, it is saying “this is the cost of buying oil now and storing it for 3 months.”
Everyone knows that there is an excess supply of oil and that prices will not rise until that excess disappears. So, market analysts watch the utilization of oil storage in the United States very closely. This has become an indicator of where the price of oil is going.
In the US, overproduction is tapering off. Between 2010 and 2015 there was a wave of a shale oil boom in the US. From importing over ten million barrels a day, shale provided energy security helping reduce imports. During what oil-price.net dubbed “the American oil revolution”, domestic crude oil production reached a record high of 9.3 million barrels per day. Since then, US oil production has dropped – nearly 6 percent in the last year alone. The present drop in production is the lowest since September 2014 as output stands at 8.8 million barrels per day, shaking off about 113,000 barrels per day. Oil production in Eagle Ford shale basin in Texas declined three percent in March while output from Bakken shale in North Dakota sagged by two percent in February. We forecast previously thatfew fracking companies relying on $70/barrel oil would be able to weather cheap oil for a long time. Some have maintained production at a loss; some brilliantly reduced maintenance costs. However, in this kind of cheap oil intricate environment, time is the enemy. Many have gone under resulting in a reduction of oversupply.
So far, 60 oil and gas companies in the US have declared themselves bankrupt. Why? Shale wells have a high depletion rate. Depletion can commonly be 45 percent a year for fracked wells (vs. around 10 percent for classic wells). By the numbers this means that after one year a fracked well produces on average 55% of what it did on day 1. After 2 years remaining production has plummeted down to 30%, or less than 1/3 of initial output. And at 12 million dollars a pop, new wells are not cheap.
Whereas $70 oil prices allowed financing a “rolling mat” of wells in various completion stages to provide a continuous supply of oil to compensate depletion, things are entirely different now that oil is in the $40 range.
Although innovative financing methods meant that frackers already had their financing and output contracts in place for new wells drilled throughout 2015 and 2016, that source of funds has now dried up, resulting in a near-cessation of new well drilling. This feeds through into a lower number of overall wells in the USA as older wells are not being replaced. So understandably, with investment in new wells dwindling, few new wells were drilled. We are now 2 years into the sub-$50 oil price range and as the above numbers illustrate, the compounded depletion is making itself felt. The existing wells are rapidly producing less and less and what used to be US oversupply flooding the market is no more. Naturally, the imports are rising again to offset the falling production thus pushing up the price of oil, as of late.
Disruption in supplies
Channeling the ground realities, disruption in oil supply across the world as a result of terrorism, strikes, sabotage or lack of maintenance are all sharp reasons for price fluctuations. In all, “unplanned disruptions” accounted for a loss of about 2.5M b/d. Evidently, this is rarely reported, but when oil prices are low expect more disruption. This has more to do with human nature than economics. With oil revenues down, oil producers cut corners and reduce staff levels. Maintenance becomes comparatively expensive and in some parts of the world (even in the US, we’re looking at you BP) it is simply postponed, turned into technical indebtedness.
Routine safety checks are not performed and lapsed. Record-keeping becomes sparse. People are laid off resulting in fewer people operating the same rig under now unsafe conditions. Also low oil prices depress local economies due to the loss of jobs and just less money going around. When resentment towards oil companies and desperation sets in, acts of sabotage are common. So it comes as no surprise that disruption in any oil operation is more likely following periods of low crude prices.
Supply disruptions across the world dipped investor confidence. In Brazil, a fire broke out at P-48 off shore oil platform, putting it out of production. In this case, it’s alleged that safety concerns were repeatedly ignored. In Ghana, several off shore platforms are offline for maintenance.
At one point in time, estimates in Kurdistan were put at 45 billion barrels of oil. True to the hyped estimates, Kurdistan emerged as an important player helping Iraq’s output to increase by 3.99 million barrels a day. Yet, with the emergence of ISIS, the region has become chaotic, to say the least. This February, oil exports from the region were halted due to attacks on pipelines through Turkey. Production in Northern Fields operated by Iraq’s National oil company remains in doldrums because of political tensions with the Kurds. A worker’s strike in Kuwait forced the Gulf state to reduce its oil output. The three day strike wiped out 1.5 million barrels from the daily production. Indeed, that’s roughly equivalent to the ‘overproduction’ of oil in the world today. Since the refining operations too were affected, traders reacted to the strike by buying more oil on the following Monday. Further, a pipeline fire in Nigeria affected the flow of 142 kb/d of crude. Apart from this too, Nigeria has been plagued by supply disruptions. Pipeline disturbances in Iraq and Nigeria removed more than 800,000 barrels of crude a day off the market, contributing to about two percent of oil price rise last February.
Staying with Kuwait, Brent gained from the news that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait were still unclear over the start of Khafji oilfield. In March, both the countries agreed to restart production in the field that produced 280,000 to 300,000 barrels per day. To look back, the oil field was closed in 2014 over environmental concerns. Much more so, the news has injected hope of shaving off the glut that persists.
Finally there are justifiable concerns over disruption in Canada’s oil supply due to wild fires. Many of the pipelines have been shut down as precaution and decline from the region is but expected.
Volatility of the market
Plain volatility has markets acting defensively. We have previously reported on the current record volatility in oil prices. Volatility makes traders nervous, pushing the prices to higher margins because of geopolitical factors. OPEC countries are hurting because of budget deficits. It may be their own fault to use their oil dominance and it may be biting them back to be still relying on oil to fund everything. For the first time since pretty much anyone alive can remember, OPEC countries have to tighten their belts. And, as we mentioned before there are strikes in Kuwait. Venezuela, member of OPEC since 1960, is hurting so bad it can’t keep the lights on and declared a 2-day workweek to save electricity. The cash crunch and crumbling infrastructure in Venezuela is a major worry for OPEC’s production.
Also OPEC is getting more and more serious about limiting output – so much so it invited outsider Russia. Earlier OPEC gathered in Doha, Qatar to come to an agreement on production cuts with Russia. A prospective cut in production sent the analysts in a tipsy with a rally of 5 percent. Predictably Russia did not appreciate that state-owned Saudi Aramco had sold crude to Chinese refineries, asserting its dominance over Russia and Iran. And so, in typical OPEC fashion, the meeting ended in a stalemate – although the need to limit production remains on the table. So, the upcoming June meeting gains significance for a possible cut in production.
Saudi Arabia’s shady outlook
As places like Saudi Arabia tighten their belts to avoid further crisis they will inevitably contemplate either levying higher taxes on their citizenry or cutting subsidies to balance their budgets. However if history teaches us anything, it is that taxation without representation doesn’t work – not for very long. In short people who pay taxes want to have a say in how their tax money is used, universally. Saudi Arabia has zero income tax for that very reason: Saudis are placated with generous subsidies and don’t typically complain about the near total lack of individual freedoms in the theocratic kingdom. But start levying taxes and they will – like anyone would – demand to choose how it is spent.
Given that the Saudi kingdom’s legislative, judiciary and executive systems are entirely based on religious writings unchanged since the 6th century, any reform won’t happen overnight. But time is of the essence for Saudi Arabia who has already liquidated $140 billion of its foreign reserves since the oil price plunged below $50 in 2014 and will run out of cash within 4 years if oil prices stay there.
Today relying on high oil prices to pay for everything is coming back to haunt Saudi Arabia who desperately needs $86 oil to balance its budget. So to stem the hemorrhage of cash, the Saudis are planning to create a new wealth fund whereby state-owned companies like Saudi Aramco will be imbibed into, so that it would be easier to invest inside Saudi Arabia thus attracting foreign capital.
This move is part of a larger ambition to foster entrepreneurship in Saudi Arabia with major projects such as the King Abdullah Financial District hosting 73 high towers connected with a speed train. But after decades of living on government subsidies, transitioning into a competitive workforce promises to be a bit of a rude awakening for Saudis who make up one of the highest paid, least productive workforce in the world. As one CEO stated: it is “a serious battle trying to get those that they hire to actually do anything” which explains why over 90% of Saudi private companies hires are foreigners.
Whether Saudi Arabia can actually achieve its goals of promoting enterprise and creativity, while remaining autocratic remains to be seen. Generally, freer more socially accepting societies are needed to encourage free enterprise
Furthermore there is a bill in the US congress known as the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA), that will, if passed, allow the families affected by the 9/11 terrorist acts to sue the Saudi Government (15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudi nationals). This would be a very public slap in the face for the Saudis who in retaliation have threatened to sell billions worth US assets. And they may have to liquidate these assets rather quickly: if found connected to terrorism by a court, these assets can be seized by the US Federal Government; if so these assets would instantly evaporate from the Saudis books.
Regarding the Saudi Aramco IPO, valuation will be tricky to establish as the company’s oil reserves are considered a state secret which no foreign expert is allowed to audit, prompting many to accuse the Kingdom of grossly overstating these reserves. Foreign investors would also be exposed to the Saudi government re-nationalizing Saudi Aramco on a whim, like it did in 1980. Both the timing and lack of transparency in the Saudi Aramco IPO are reminiscent of the Enron IPO.
As oil prices continue rising, Saudi Arabia may be able to buy more time to take more steps towards the reforms needed by a productive society. In any case once they start levying taxes or cutting subsidies, the result will be identical. Saudi citizens will likely demand more rights: the right for representation in the case of taxation and the freedom of enterprise to provide for their families if subsidies are cut. In both cases more unrest and oil price volatility.
Right now, the “smart money” is avoiding Saudi Arabia altogether: not a single major western financial institution has opened office in any of the 73 tours of the new King Abdullah Financial District. Understandably it would be disastrous for any western bank to come under scrutiny from the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act. But there is more to it: Saudi Arabia just does not have a viable plan B for after it runs out of cash 4 years from now, and the “smart money” is wondering who will control Saudi oil reserves by 2020.
All the reasons given above may be distilled but are not marked in perpetuity. Much more so, they are imprinted with nifty dissolutive variables. Yet, it’s undeniable that there’s resurgence in the price of oil. From geo-political to market forces, the reasons are indeed varied as we’ve touched upon. And while the effects of the ongoing fires in Canada are yet to be known, they aren’t going to bring down the price of oil. The OPEC meeting on June 2 can.
Crude oil prices have stabilised near the $50 per barrel mark, leaving traders confused as to whether the next 20 percent move from the current levels is going to be higher or lower. The divergent views of the experts don’t make the job easier, and instead, add to the confusion.
A Raymond James report forecasts an $80 per barrel oil price in 2017—a figure which is 60 percent higher than current levels.
On the other hand, A. Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., a New Jersey consultancy, and author of “The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation,” forecasts that oil will drop to $10 per barrel from the current levels, reports Bloomberg.
Further complicating matters, there is a Goldman Sachs report that says that the oil market will be back in a surplus by early 2017, reports Oilprice.
So which outcome currently looks most likely to become a reality in the future?
Though supply disruptions are not a new phenomenon, large-scale supply outages to the tune of 3.5 million barrels per day is significant, because it turns the supply glut into a deficit. Though it is easy to confirm that the Canadian supply will be completely restored, forecasting normalization of disruptions in Nigeria and Libya is more difficult. However, efforts are in progress in both places to bring supply back on track.
The result of these efforts was seen in Nigeria in June, where production increased from 1.3 million barrels per day in the early part of the month to 1.9 million barrels per day by the end of the month, as per Nigerian government sources. Nigeria is targeting production of 2.2 million barrels per day in July 2016, if pipeline repairs are completed, reports the Market Realist.
If Nigeria is able to do so, it will be a significant boost to the supply. As these disruptions are temporary in nature, any success with normalization will again lead to a supply excess.
Gone are the days when the world used to watch Saudi Arabia and OPEC exclusively. These days, the world markets are keen to understand what oil price level will bring the shale oil drillers back into full swing.
Crude prices of $50-55 per barrel are not high enough to rekindle the U.S. shale oil output growth, Anadarko chief executive Al Walker says. “At $50-55/bl, we don’t cycle cash quickly enough to create capital investment for growth,” he says. The industry needs “$60/bl or more, at service costs we have today, for the cash cycle to start,” reports Argus media.
Therefore, a price anywhere between $50-60 per barrel should prompt some level of increase in shale oil production.
While the markets focus attention on the shale patch, we should not discount the outer continental shelf. An additional 500,000 barrels a day of new production from the Gulf of Mexico is set to come online this year and next, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis, which is enough to offset the 480,000 barrels a day drop in onshore production this year, reports the WSJ.
Hence, the loss in the U.S. supply, as anticipated, might not come about, and we might see the resilience of the U.S. oil industry continue.
OPEC and Russia
Considering that most of the OPEC countries and Russia depend on oil to fund their budgets, the supply is likely to increase in the future rather than decrease.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich predicts “some increase” in oil production in Russia in 2017 and no decline in production, reports Tass Russian News Agency.
Most experts are in unison about robust demand growth both in 2016 and 2017, barring a recession in the world economy. Hence, any rise or drop in oil prices will be due to the supply-side factors.
Currently, the balance in the oil market continues. If the supply is restored, prices are likely to tip over, but if disruptions continue, oil is likely to rise to the $60 per barrel mark.
By Rakesh Upadhyay for Oilprice.com