mIn(donesia)yaaa(REAL1TY)aK (21/10/2016)


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marketwatch: Saudi Arabia on Monday said that it plans to make itself capable of living without oil within the next four years—a very ambitious goal for a country that exports more of the energy source than anyone else in the world.

The kingdom approved a long-term blueprint for economic reform dubbed “Saudi Vision 2030,” which aims to reduce the country’s dependence on oil revenues. It’ll be quite a challenge for a nation that still saw about 70% of last year’s revenue come from petroleum despite the steep drop in prices since mid-2014.

“By 2020, we’ll be able to live without oil,” Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who heads the economic council, told Saudi new channel Al-Arabiya in an interview aired Monday. He also said that less than 5% of the state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. will be publicly sold off in a move that would value the world’s largest energy firm at as much as $2.5 trillion.

Read: Meet the 30-year-old prince emerging as the oil market’s ‘ultimate disrupter’

The reform plan follows a slump oil prices, which saw Brent LCOM6, -0.78%  and West Texas Intermediate crudes CLM6, +0.75%  drop by roughly 70% to lows under $30 a barrel this year, from highs above $100 a barrel in mid-2014. The drop has thrown the kingdom into turmoil, prompting substantial budget cuts and other measures that observers have feared could spark social unrest.

“Saudi Arabia’s new reform agenda is heavily influenced by the sustained dip in oil prices contributing to a budget deficit this year of about $90 billion,” said Usha Haley, a professor of management at West Virginia University, who is an expert on international energy policy.

“Despite some diversification, oil still accounted for over 70% of the kingdom’s revenues,” she said. But the Saudis realize that the present “oil-dependent strategy cannot sustain a high quality of life in Saudi Arabia.”

That said, analysts say that the plan isn’t likely to result in any production cuts.

“Over the longer term, I don’t think this becomes a real threat to supply,” said Robbie Fraser, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric. “Saudi Arabia will continue to produce oil for years to come in order to fund its diversification effort.”

Still, there are four key things that the reform plan hints at:

1) Loss of control

Saudi Arabia’s influence in the oil market has diminished and the Saudis know it.

For Saudi Arabia ‘a lack of control over the long-term price of oil is virtually identical to a lack of control over the country’s long-term economic and political stability.’

Robbie Fraser, Schneider Electric

They see their ability to control oil prices slipping away, said Fraser, “and for the Saudi government, a lack of control over the long-term price of oil is virtually identical to a lack of control over the country’s long-term economic and political stability.”

But the Saudis’ influence in the market hasn’t weakened solely due to falling oil prices.

On a broader scale, there continues to be conflict between the world’s major oil producers. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia, and non-OPEC countries failed to reach an agreement earlier this month to cap output levels.

And if the Saudis can’t get OPEC and non-OPEC nations to work together, they’re “probably thinking the new price norm for WTI oil is $45 to $65 a barrel, said Kevin Kerr, managing editor and executive publisher of Commodities Watch.

2) More market-share battles

Major oil producing countries have been reluctant to cut back on production despite the plunge in prices because they fear losing their share of the market to rivals—and the Saudi reform plan implies that market-share battles will continue.

“The most noteworthy point is that the this plan confirms that Saudi Arabia is going to maintain its current policy in oil markets—defending market share and ignoring commercially unwise calls for an output cut,” said Omar Al-Ubaydli, a program director at the Bahrain Center for Strategic, International and Energy Studies.

“Any speculators who were hanging on to the hope that internal and external political pressure would lead the Saudis into a commercial error [output cut] should really consider moving on, and accept that the Saudis are not going to cut output for the benefit of other producers, and at a significant cost to themselves,” he said.

At the same time, the market-share battle has helped to exacerbate Saudi Arabia’s economic woes.

“The Saudis had already been selling oil at a much lower price than they could maintain to drive the U.S. shale companies out of business,” said Haley. “Shale puts a ceiling on how high oil prices can go.”

But the “survival of shale gas as an alternative and viable resource, and the continued development of other energy sources, has created an urgency for the kingdom, that its leaders could not write off as a blip,” she said.

The reform plan shows that Saudi Arabia are “aware of the looming landscape for energy and intends to do something about it for their country and themselves,” said Haley.

3) Petrodollar endangered?

Economies in the oil-rich Middle East have been taking big hits from the plunge in oil prices and that could prompt them to take further action.

When Saudi Arabia agreed back in the 1970s to price all of its future oil sales in U.S. dollars in return for military protection, that meant that any country who wanted to buy oil from the kingdom would have to buy dollars to make the transaction, Jody Chudley wrote in a recent article for The Daily Reckoning.

The petrodollar has “done wonderful things for asset prices in the United States,” said Chudley.

But the relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia has deteriorated, particularly after the Western nations reached a deal with Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program.

See: This nasty oil rivalry is why a genuine output freeze is a long shot

Now, the U.S. Senate is considering a weapons export ban or limit on Saudi Arabia. “Remember it is military support that was the carrot that the U.S. dangled in front of the Saudis, which enabled the petrodollar in the first place,” Chudley said.

Read: Obama seeks to quell talk of U.S.-Saudi divorce

4) Peak demand

Lastly, the Saudi Vision 2030 plan implies that the world just doesn’t need as much oil as it used to.

The Saudi reforms “strongly point to the slow but powerful forces of peak demand—a long process where the Persian Gulf majors are most vulnerable,” said Richard Hastings, macro strategist at Seaport Global Securities.

The immigration reform component of the plan “allows for more labor to participate in the country,” helping to perpetuate the move away from oil and petroleum products, he said.

“The announcement does not change crude-oil price action immediately, because it now seems very likely that the price collapse in 2014 was triggered by the beginning of the peak demand era,” Hastings said. “Prices now seem to capture most of the process that is now under way in the global petroleum story.”

So Saudi Arabia’s reform plan may have come just in time.

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WASHINGTON, KOMPAS.com – Bank Dunia menaikkan proyeksi harga minyak mentah untuk tahun 2017 menjadi 55 dollar AS per barrel dari sebelumnya 53 dollar AS per barrel.

Alasannya adalah ada kesepakatan produksi yang dilakukan anggota Organisasi Negara-negara Pengekspor Minyak (OPEC) guna membantu mengatasi kelebihan pasokan.

Dalam laporan outlook pasar komoditas yang baru-baru ini dipublikasikan, Bank Dunia menyatakan harga energi, termasuk minyak, gas alam, dan batu bara diprediksi akan naik hampir 25 persen di tahun 2017.

Ini adalah peningkatan yang lebih besar dari proyeksi sebelumnya.

“Kami memprediksi kenaikan yang solid pada harga energi, yang dipimpin oleh minyak, tahun depan,” tulis Bank Dunia dalam laporannya seperti dikutip dari CNBC, Jumat (21/10/2016).

Meskipun demikian, Bank Dunia menyatakan masih ada ketidakpastian yang dapat terjadi pada outlook tersebut.

Bank Dunia masih menanti rincian implementasi perjanjian OPEC, yang bila memang benar-benar diimplementasikan maka jelas akan mempengaruhi pasar minyak dunia.

Perjanjian itu merupakan pemangkasan produksi pertama kalinya sejak 2008. OPEC berencana membatasi produksi menjadi kisaran 32,5 juta hingga 33 juta barrel per hari, dibandingkan dengan rekor produksi 33,6 juta barrel per hari pada September 2016.

Bank Dunia memutuskan tidak mengubah proyeksi harga minyak untuk tahun 2016, yakni 43 dollar AS per barrel.

Pada Rabu (19/10/2016) lalu, Menteri Energi Arab Saudi Khalid Al-Falih menyatakan bahwa pasar minyak global sudah berada di penghujung kondisi penurunan.

Hal ini sejalan dengan membaiknya fundamental serta keseimbangan kembali antara permintaan dan penawaran.

Salah satu kondisi banjir pasokan minyak terbesar dalam sejarah sudah memukul pasar minyak global selama lebih dari dua tahun. Harga minyak dunia jatuh dari 100 dollar AS per barrel pada tahun 2014 menjadi hanya 27 dollar AS per barrel.

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NEW YORK kontan. Bursa AS ditutup di zona merah pada awal pekan kemarin (3/10). Berdasarkan data CNBC, pada pukul 16.00 waktu New York, indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average turun 0,3% atau 54,30 poin menjadi 18.253,85. Saham yang mencatatkan penurunan terdalam adalah Travelers Companies. Sedangkan saham dengan kenaikan tertinggi yakni saham DuPont.

Adapun indeks S&P 500 turun 7,07 poin atau 0,33% menjadi 2.161,20. Sektor real estate menorehkan penurunan terbesar di antara delapan sektor lainnya. Di sisi lain, sektor telekomunikasi merupakan sektor dengan kenaikan terbesar.

Indeks Nasdaq turun 11,13 poin atau 0,21% menjadi 5.300,87.

Penurunan bursa AS seiring langkah investor yang mengawasi data ekonomi AS. Sekadar informasi, September Markit Manufacturing PMI berada di level 51,5, level terendah dalam tiga bulan terakhir.

“Data manufaktur AS memberikan sinyal adanya kenaikan yang moderate baik di bagian volume produksi dan lapangan kerja baru di sepanjang September. Namun survei teranyar menunjukkan hilangnya momentum pertumbuhan dari posisi tertinggi Juli,” papar Markit.

Selain itu, pelaku pasar juga terus mengamati pergerakan harga minyak dunia. Asal tahu saja, harga minyak mengalami kenaikan pada transaksi tadi malam dengan melonjak 1,2% menjadi US$ 48,81 per barel.  

“Saya rasa market masih mencari inspirasi saat ini. Belum ada satu pun kabar yang dapat mendorong market. Terjadinya koreksi tidak terlalu mengejutkan dan ini termasuk koreksi sehat,” papar Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist Key Private Bank.

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oil price.com: Saudi Arabia will deal ministers a 20 percent pay cut and scale back perks for government employees—two-thirds of employed Saudis—as it grapples with the realities that accompany an $87 billion budget deficit for 2016. A much more acute budget deficit than its rival Iran, as the chart below shows:

 

The state-run Ekhbariya TV announced the royal decree, along with a cabinet statement, on Monday, just as Saudi Arabia began its participation in the International Energy Forum in Algiers.

Saudi Arabia – de facto leader of OPEC – is currently discussing the possibility of a long-desired oil production freeze.

Speculation on whether the 14-member bloc will agree on an output deal has run rampant in recent weeks, taking oil prices on a roller coaster ride. For the third time this year, Saudi Arabia does not seem motivated to curb production as Iran’s oil sector recovers, even as its less financially savvy OPEC comrades crumble politically and economically under the weight of two years of abysmal oil revenues.

As the present economics of oil—which require a $66.70 barrel price to make Saudi crude profitable—continue to work against the world’s energy producers, the KSA has turned its focus towards its long-term “Vision 2030” strategy of economic diversification.

Schlumberger, General Electric and Siemens have all contributed plans for the realization of Saudi Arabia’s revitalization program, according to Abdulaziz al-Abdulkarim, Saudi Aramco’s vice-president for procurement and supply chain management.

The state-run energy giant’s oil infrastructure will receive a $334 billion facelift by 2025, which will enhance the kingdom’s ability to extract shale gas, the executive said at theMiddle East Petrotech Conference in Bahrain on Monday.

“This will be spent on material and services to support service facilities, infrastructure projects, drilling and maintain [oil] potential projects, unconventional resources both in the exploration phase and development and several other projects,” Abdulkarim said.

Related: Lack Of Pipeline Capacity Could Force Down Canadian Crude Prices

Amin Nasser – who, as Saudi Aramco’s CEO, also attended and spoke at the Bahraini conference – originally announced the investments last year as part of the 10-year In-Kingdom Total Value Add (IKTVA) plan. It aims to create 500,000 new jobs for Saudis and double the percentage of domestically produced energy-related goods to 70 percent.

“Working with our suppliers, we will capture value that produces long-term tangible benefits – quality jobs for a growing Saudi population, innovation and diversification of industry, and increased global competitiveness,” the program’s site says.

The largest portion (42 percent) of funds will go towards developing drilling capabilities. Another 31 percent will develop the kingdom’s surface facilities, such as wells and related equipment.

The program forecasts that the number of oil and gas drilling wells will increase by 33 percent to 1,200 and by 50 percent to 600 by the year 2025, respectively.

IKTVA’s promised investments have begun pouring in and Saudi Aramco has been gearing up for an initial public offering (IPO) of five percent of the company in 2018. KSA’s financial team still has not decided which stock exchange would be ideal for the highly coveted listing.

The latest buzz on the issue had Aramco confirming that it still considered the London stock exchange a contender for the listing – an announcement that supports the United Kingdom’s economic relevance after the Brexit vote.

Saudi Aramco and its controlling government have paved the way for the KSA’s economic success in the next ten years, but other OPEC members – particularly those who are not also members of the Gulf Cooperation Council – do not have the financial connections to navigate rock-bottom oil prices without risking political stability.

Related: OPEC Circus Sees Oil Volatility Spike

At the beginning of the oil price crisis in 2014, Saudi Arabia started off with debt-to-GDP ratio close to zero. Algeria (8.76 percent) and Venezuela (roughly 50 percent) – the two countries pushing for an OPEC production freeze most vocally – shouldered larger debt burdens before revenues plummeted.

To be fair, the KSA is not the only country ambivalent about implementing an output deal. Libya, Iraq and Nigeria need price increases to keep their governments functional, but cannot afford to freeze production at stinted levels caused by ongoing internal strife.

Still, as the de facto leader of the bloc and its largest oil-producing member, Saudi Arabia holds the power to make or break a freeze. In April, Saudi Arabia’s refusal to sign off on a negotiated deal caused it to fall apart, not Iran’s defensive position to continue production.

As Abdelkarim, Nasser and freshman Saudi oil minister Khalid Al-Falih make their rounds in regional and international conferences this week, their contrasting can and can’t-do attitudes makes one thing clear: The Kingdom is far more interested in its long-term economic and geopolitical goals than alleviating its short-term oil profitability problem with and for its OPEC partners.

By Zainab Calcuttawala for Oilprice.com

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NEW YORK sindonewsHarga minyak mentah Amerika Serikat (AS) ambruk di bawah level USD40 per barel pada perdagangan hari ini untuk pertama kalinya sejak April. Sementara harga minyak dunia juga merosot hampir mencapai 4% seiring meningkatnya kekhawatiran membanjirnya pasokan, meskipun permintaan bahan bakat akan mencapai puncak di musim panas.

Dilansir Reuters, Selasa (2/8/2016) harga minyak mentah AS selama Juli telah kehilangan hampir sebesar 15%, untuk menjadi yang terbesar selama satu bulan dalam setahun terakhir. “Ini adalah stop-loss yang dikombinasikan dengan likuidasi saat orang takut akan pasokan minyak kembali melonjak,” terang trader dari PSW Investments Phil Davis di California.

Tercatat harga minyak mentah AS West Texas intermediate (WTI) berada pada level USD39,86 per barel dan menjadi yang terendah sejak 20 April, sebelumnya menetap di posisi USD40,06 per barel dengan penurunan sebesar USD1,54 atau 3,7%. Sedangkan harga minyak mentah Brent berakhir turun USD1.39 atau 3,2% di level USD42,14 per barel.

Marathon Petroleum secara tiba-tiba menutup terkait ladang minyak mereka yang mampu memproduksi 212,000 barrel per-hari. Data lain pekan ini menunjukkan stok minyak AS bertambah 44 minyak rig pengeboran pada bulan Juli.

(akr)

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FRANKFURT, Germany/NEW YORK — American and European energy giants have begun pouring money into the Asia-Pacific region to tap a growing market, especially as crude prices show signs of a modest recovery.

Exxon Mobil of the U.S. announced July 21 that it had agreed to buy InterOil, a natural gas explorer based in Papua New Guinea, for up to $3.6 billion. InterOil owns rights to some of the world’s richest gas fields.

Papua New Guinea has low labor costs and is close to major consumers of liquefied natural gas, including Japan, South Korea and China. Exxon Mobil decided to make its biggest acquisition since 2012 in hopes that crude rises from the current level of $50 a barrel by 2020, when InterOil is expected to begin LNG production.

The industry began moving toward consolidation in 2014 amid a downturn in crude prices. Royal Dutch Shell decided in April 2015 to purchase U.K.-based BG Group. Industry watchers expected other energy majors to follow suit, but they held back as crude continued to decline.

The InterOil deal signals changing tides as industry titans battle over smaller players while cheap crude keeps equipment and labor costs low. Papua New Guinea-based Oil Search, backed by French giant Total, had reached an agreement to buy the company in May but was eventually outbid by Exxon Mobil.

BP has plans for expanding the Tangguh LNG project in Indonesia, in which such Japanese companies as Inpex and Mitsubishi Corp. also have interests. An estimated $8 billion will be invested to boost annual output by 50% to 3.8 million tons.

Tangguh is the most competitive LNG project for delivering gas to such markets as Japan, CEO Bob Dudley said last Tuesday.

Asia accounts for three-quarters of global LNG demand, and consumption in such countries as China and India is only expected to grow. In contrast to crude oil development, where governments usually take the lead, most LNG projects are headed by corporations.

Chevron and partners including Exxon Mobil have agreed to invest a total of $36.8 billion in a Kazakhstan oil project to expand crude oil production there to a daily 260,000 barrels. The crude can be transported directly from the field to China via pipeline.

An immediate jump in crude prices remains unlikely, and overall investment by oil majors continues to fall. Exxon Mobil is behind on its planned capital expenditures of more than $23 billion for the year, according to Vice President Jeff Woodbury. Shell is also cutting down on investments.

 

BP expects to use less than the $17 billion initially allocated for capital expenditures for 2016 and is planning its lowest target in a decade for 2017 of $15 billion to $17 billion. But the company will still pursue new projects, with a goal of 800,000 barrels of new daily oil and gas production by 2020.

TAKAYUKI KATO and SOICHI INAI, Nikkei staff writers

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Metrotvnews.com, Jakarta: Kondisi harga komoditas yang masih mengalami penurunan, membuat sektor ini tak banyak dilirik oleh perbankan tahun lalu. Dengan tingkat risiko kredit macet yang lebih tinggi, banyak bank memilih main aman menghindari pembiayaan di sektor komoditas sehingga berdampak pada rendahnya penyaluran kredit bank.

Menteri Keuangan (Menkeu) Bambang Brodjonegoro mengatakan, penurunan harga komoditas tak hanya menyerang industri perbankan. Namun kondisi ini juga menyebabkan terganggunya penerimaan negara serta pertumbuhan sektor riil yang terbilang rendah.

“Kita memahami perbankan tahun lalu menghadapi tantangan berat karena harga komoditas melemah. Sehingga tidak hanya peneriman negara yang terganggu, tetapi sektor riil juga. Bagusnya beberapa bank sudah mengantisipasi kemungkinan adanya peningkatan NPL dari sektor komoditas,” ujarnya di Hotel Ritz Carlton, Pacific Place, Jakarta, Kamis (2/6/2016) malam.

Dirinya menambahkan, ketergantungan komoditas akan sangat mempengaruhi kondisi perekonomian nasional. Bahkan, dampaknya bisa menyebabkan lonjakan pada pemutusan hubungan kerja (PHK) karena rendahnya pendapatan perusahaan yang bergerak di sektor komoditas tersebut.

“Karenanya bank harus bisa menata ekonomi yang tidak bergatung pada komoditas. Jika tidak sistem perbankan bisa terganggu karena pelemahan harga komooditas. Kita sudah merasakan akibat ketergantungan pada sektor komoditas. Baik itu 2000-an maupun 1990-an ketika harga minyak tembus USD10 per barel,” jelas dia.

Bidik Sektor Manufaktur

Sebagai gantinya, Bambang meminta kepada bank mulai melirik sektor manufaktur. Khususnya sektor manufaktur yang berbasis sumber daya alam karena dianggap memiliki potensi cukup baik untuk menjadi kekuatan utama industri nasional.

Berbagai sumber pertumbuhan ekonomi lain, lanjut Bambang, akan berdampak baik terhadap banyaknya opsi mendongrak perekonomian. Apalagi potensi untuk mengolah dan memveri nilai tambah terhadap berbagai sumber daya alam di Indonesia masih cukup banyak.

“Kita ingin ekonomi kita segera diversifikasi. Banyak opsi untuk tidak bergantung lagi pada sektor komoditas, kita bisa ke sektor manufaktur yang berbasis sumber daya alam, kita punya, batu bara, sawit, karet, cokelat, misalkan, atau singkong, termasuk hasil tambang dan turunannya,” tambah dia.

Dengan adanya potensi itu, maka potensi perbankan untuk turut mendorong pembiayaan sektor manufaktur terbuka lebar. Oleh karena itu, Bambang berharap jika bank mulai melakukan pembiayaan jangka panjang terhadap lokomotif pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional yang baru tersebut.

“Saya ingin ajak kawan-kawan bank, bagaimana kita menghadapi dampak dari penurunan harga komoditas ini. Saya rasa selama sektor tersebut sudah mapan di Indonesia maka sektor tersebut berpotensi akan bersaing di dunia,” pungkasnya.

http://ekonomi.metrotvnews.com/mikro/GbmAY9eb-sektor-komoditas-lesu-bank-diminta-bidik-sektor-manufaktur
Sumber : METROTVNEWS.COM

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Vienna, May 31, 2016 (AFP)
A recovery in the oil price to around $50 has eased pressure on OPEC to turn down the taps when it gathers in Vienna on Thursday for its first meeting with the powerful Saudi crown prince’s new oil minister.

“The general consensus is that there will be no agreement to establish quotas or lower production,” said James Williams at WTRG Economics.

“The most restrictive outcome might be an agreement to a production ceiling.”

Historically the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps around a third of the world’s oil or some 30 million barrels every day, has responded to a fall in prices by cutting production.

But in the current cycle, which saw prices collapse from over $100 in 2014 to close to $25 this January, producers led by kingpin Saudi Arabia have changed strategy, maintaining output even with lower prices.

The aim, experts say, was to keep hold of market share by seeking to put competitors that need a higher oil price than the Gulf states to make money — particularly US shale oil producers — out of business.

And even though it has taken a while, straining even Saudi Arabia’s public finances — to say nothing of struggling OPEC member Nigeria and on-the-brink Venezuela — Riyadh’s approach now looks to be bearing fruit, experts say.

Last week both main oil benchmarks, West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude, briefly touched the psychologically important level of $50 a barrel and remain close to that level despite slipping back slightly.

Dozens of US shale oil firms have gone bankrupt and non-OPEC production is on course to drop sharply this year. The International Energy Agency predicted on May 12 that global oversupply will “shrink dramatically”.

– Doha debacle –

But this easing of pressure is just as well, because the bitter animosity between Saudi Arabia and Iran — regional rivals engaged in proxy wars in Syria and Yemen — means that any agreement to cut OPEC output is highly unlikely.

Since Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with major powers entered into force in January and sanctions were lifted, Tehran has aggressively ramped up output to levels close to pre-sanctions levels, and is unwilling to stop now.

This was in evidence when Iran stayed away from a disastrous meeting in Doha on April 4 between OPEC and non-OPEC members including Russia that failed to agree a possible coordinated output freeze.

Saudi Arabia meanwhile — and in particular the powerful young Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman who is seeking to revamp the country’s economy — is now thought to have gone off putting a cap on output.

After the Doha debacle, the 30-year-old prince replaced veteran oil minister Ali al-Naimi — for 20 years the key player in OPEC’s Vienna shindigs — with Khaled al-Falih, who is thought to be, if anything, less amenable to a cut.

“I see nothing to indicate that (Saudi Arabia) is prepared to back off the war of attrition for market share,” said Helima Croft at RBC Capital Markets.

“(The) all-powerful deputy crown prince seems especially focused on his sweeping economic reform effort and not particularly phased by the current price environment,” Croft said.

Prices could head south again. The recent rise, driven by production problems in Libya, Nigeria and Canada, could reverse, and the prospect of higher US interest rates is adding to downwards pressure on the oil price.

But even then, it is far from certain that the Saudis would change strategy — not least because a lower oil price will hurt Iran.

jra-stu/jh/as

<org idsrc=”isin” value=”CA7800871021″>BANQUE ROYALE DU CANADA</org>

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TOKYO kontan. Sektor energi memimpin kenaikan di antara sektor lainnya di kawasan regional pada Kamis (26/5) siang. Kenaikan sektor ini juga mengerek performaBursa Asia.

Mengutip data Bloomberg, pada pukul 14.41 waktu Tokyo, indeks MSCI Asia Pacific melaju 0,5%. Indeks Topix Jepang naik 1,1%. Sedangkan Shanghai Composite Index China tertekan ke posisi terendahnya dalam tiga bulan terakhir.

Sementara, sektor energi melompat 1,4%. Beberapa saham energi yang menyumbang kenaikan terbesar pada sektor ini antara lain Cnooc Ltd dan Woodside Petroleum Ltd yang menorehkan reli lebih dari 2%.

Kenaikan sektor energi berkaitan erat dengan pergerakan positif harga minyak dunia. Sekadar informasi, harga minyak pada transaksi perdagangan hari ini diperdagangkan di atas level US$ 50 per barel untuk pertama kalinya sejak November lalu.

Kenaikan harga minyak terjadi setelah data cadangan minyak AS menunjukkan penurunan yang lebih besar dari prediksi.

Sentimen lain yang mempengaruhi pasar Asia adalah optimisme mengenai ketahanan perekonomian global jika bank sentral global memberlakukan pengetatan kebijakan moneter.

“Pelaku pasar saat ini sudah mulai menerima ide kenaikan suku bunga AS. Pikiran yang berkembang adalah kenaikan suku bunga tidak akan menghentikan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Namun, jika ekonomi global melambat, itu artinya mereka harus mengubah kebijakan mereka,” jelas Mitsushige Akino, executive officer Ichiyoshi Asset Management Co di Tokyo.

Di sisi lain, hasil polling menunjukkan adanya dukungan yang besar agar Inggris tetap berada di Uni Eropa, sehingga meredakan kecemasan akan prospek “Brexit”.

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JAKARTA. Harga Minyak terus mendekati level US$ 50 per barel. Kemampuan Minyak WTI mengejar level tersebut ditopang oleh dugaan kembali turunnya produksi Minyak Amerika Serikat.

Mengutip Bloomberg, Rabu (25/5) pukul 12.35 WIB harga Minyak kontrak pengiriman Juli 2016 di New York Mercantile Exchange terbang 1,28% ke level US$ 49,24 per barel dibanding hari sebelumnya.

Pasar memang masih menanti rilis data resmi pemerintah AS melalui Energy Information Administration (EIA) pada Rabu (25/5) malam. Dari prediksi pasar data EIA akan menunjukkan penurunan stok sebesar 1,7 juta barel pekan lalu dibanding sebelumnya yang bertambah 1,3 juta barel. Namun American Petroleum Institute melaporkan terjadi penurunan stok Minyak AS sebesar 5,14 juta barel pekan lalu.

“Data API sangat positif bagi harga Minyak WTI, jika nantinya data EIA sama positifnya perlu dicari tahu apakah ini terjadi karena penurunan produksi akibat kebakaran di Kanada atau terjadi kenaikan musiman,” jelas Angus Nicholson, Analis IG Ltd seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg, Rabu (25/5).

Memang biasanya memasuki musim panas di AS akan terjadi peningkatan permintaan Minyak untuk bahan bakar karena memasuki driving season.

Dukungan lainnya bagi harga datang dari laporan stok Minyak di Cushing, Oklahoma, pelabuhan pengiriman Minyak terbesar di AS yang turun 189.000 barel pekan lalu. Dari survey Bloomberg juga diperkirakan terjadi penurunan stok hingga 2 juta barel pekan lalu hingga 20 Mei 2016. Tentunya jika prediksi ini benar tidak sulit bagi harga Minyak WTI mengejar level psikologisnya di US$ 50 per barel.

http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/ini-pemicu-minyak-kian-mendekati-us-50-sebarel
Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID

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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Harga minyak mentah menyentuh level tertinggi dalam tujuh bulan terakhir menyusul spekulasi bahwa stok minyak mentah AS turun minggu lalu sedangkan penurunan pasokan di Kanada dan Nigeria diperkirakan akan mengurangi kelebihan pasokan global.

Harga minyak WTI untuk pengiriman Juni naik 59 sen ke US$48,31 per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange. Sementara itu, Brent untuk pengiriman Juli menguat 31 sen atau 0,6% ke level US$49,28 per barel di ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

Menurut survei Bloomberg sebelum rilis data pemerintah AS hari Rabu, persediaan minyak mentah AS kemungkinan turun sebesar 3,5 juta barel. Ini akan menjadi penurunan mingguan berturut-turut yang pertama sejak September tahun lalu.

Gene McGillian, analis senior dan broker di Tradition Energy, mengatakan berkurangnya kelebihan pasokan global memberikan dorongan di pasar minyak

“Menurunnya produksi dan meningkatnya permintaan diharapkan mengurangi kelebihan pasokan yang menyeret harga minyak ke level terendah dalam 12 tahun terakhir,” kata Gene seperti yang dikutip dari Bloomberg.

Harga minyak telah menguat lebih dari 80% dari level terendah selama 12 tahun terakhir pada menyusul perkiraan berkurangnya kelebihan pasokan global karena penurunan produksi AS.

Sebelumnya, Goldman Sachs Group Inc menyatakan bahwa pasar minyak sedang dalam defisit karena gangguan pasokan di Nigeria dan peningkatan permintaan.

Bensin berjangka AS untuk pengiriman Juni naik 1,7% menjadi US$1,6341 per galon, level tertinggi sejak Agustus 31. Harga solar untuk pengiriman Juni naik 1,9% menjadi US$1,4674 per galon.

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NEW YORK kontan. Dua tahun lalu, Zach Schreiber dengan tepat meramal kejatuhan epik harga minyak dunia. Saat ini, dia mengingatkan lagi akan kemungkinan terjadinya krisis finansial di Arab Saudi.

Prediksinya yang dibuat pada 2014 lalu berhasil mendatangkan keuntungan senilai US$ 1 miliar bagi perusahaannya. Saat Schreiber berbicara, semua orang duduk dan mendengarkan.

“Jika Anda masih berada di posisi long, saya ikut merasa kasihan,” kata CEO hedge fund PointState Capital saat dia membuat taruhan dua tahun lalu dan posisi harga minyak masih di atas US$ 100 per barel.

Ternyata, ramalannya menjadi kenyataan. Harga minyak bahkan sempat jatuh ke level US$ 26 Februari lalu. Kondisi itu membuat pemerintah Arab Saudi dan negara lain yang sangat bergantung dengan minyak sakit kepala. Pasalnya, anggaran belanja mereka sudah dipastikan akan terpangkas.

Arab Saudi, misalnya, sudah menggunting anggaran belanja dan tengah berupaya keras untuk mendongkrak pendapatan. Pekan kemarin, Arab Saudi juga memecat menteri perminyakan mereka yang sudah menjabat selama 21 tahun.

Schreiber percaya, kondisi ekonomi Arab Saudi akan semakin memburuk.

“Saudi memiliki dua atau tiga tahun untuk lepas landas sebelum akhirnya menabrak dinding,” jelas Schreiber saat 21st Annual Sohn Investment Conference pada pekan lalu.

Pernyataannya pada konferensi tersebut mengingatkan pada peringatan Schreiber tentang harga minyak tahun 2014 lalu.

Schreiber meramal, Arab Saudi menghadapi dua ancaman besar terhadap perekonomian mereka. Yakni, komitmen besarnya anggaran belanja dan murahnya harga minyak.

“Tak heran saat ini Arab Saudi merilis banyak sekali obligasi,” jelasnya.

Pangkas subsidi

Setelah bertahun-tahun mendapatkan uang dengan sangat mudah dari minyak, belakangan ini, mesin uang Arab Saudi tersendat. Negara kerajaan tersebut dikabarkan berencana menarik pinjaman senilai US$ 10 miliar dari sejumlah bank. Bahkan, mereka mempertimbangkan untuk merilis obligasi internasional pertama mereka.

Masalahnya adalah Arab Saudi membutuhkan harga minyak kembali ke posisi US$ 100 per barel sehingga bisa menyeimbangkan anggaran belanja mereka.

Pengeluaran Arab Saudi banyak terpakai pada pemberian tunjangan warga mereka yang populasinya hampir mencapai 30 juta orang. Saat ini, tunjangan subsidi tersebut terpaksa dihentikan. Salah satunya dengan menaikkan harga bensin sebesar 50%.

Arab Saudi juga memiliki anggaran militer yang besar mengingat kondisi geopolitik Timur Tengah yang sangat rentan. Meski begitu, anggaran militer mereka tetap dipangkas sebesar 3,6% tahun ini akibat anjloknya harga minyak.

Memang, bank sentral Arab Saudi dikabarkan memiliki dana tabungan untuk masa sulit sebesar US$ 600 miliar. Namun, jumlahnya sudah berkurang sekitar US$ 140 miliar pada kurun waktu akhir 2014 hingga Februari lalu.

Schreiber berargumen, neraca perdagangan Arab Saudi terlalu dilebih-lebihkan. Dia merujuk pada nilai libilitas yang hampir mencapai US$ 340 miliar yang memangkas nilai dana cadangan.

Hal ini dapat menjelaskan mengapa Arab Saudi berencana menjual 5% saham perusahaan milik kerajaan: Aramco.

“Jika mereka menjual saham Aramco, bagaimana mereka mendanai hal lainnya? Ini gila. Saudi menggadaikan masa depan mereka dan tengah membeli waktu saat ini,” jelasnya.

Pada saat yang sama, Schreiber masih bearish terhadap harga minyak untuk jangka menengah-panjang.

“Mari berharap yang terbaik dan mempersiapkan yang terburuk,” kata Schreiber.

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marketwatch: Oil futures are poised to end April with a monthly gain of nearly 19%, but the ride hasn’t been a smooth one and likely won’t be in the weeks to come as traders continue to navigate conflicting clues on the outlook for crude.

“There certainly seems to be a lot of factors pressing on oil prices, yet they keep finding new legs,” said Kevin Kerr, managing editor and executive publisher of Commodities Watch.

Oil’s not-so-smooth April climb

West Texas Intermediate crude CLM6, -0.65%  was trading at $45.53 a barrel on Thursday, its highest since early November, up from the front-month contract finish of $38.34 on March 31. Brent crude LCOM6, -0.93%  was at $47.55, up roughly 19% from the front-month contract settlement at the end of last month.

Read: How to make sense out of a confusing rally for oil futures

“On a fundamental basis, the lack of any type of real cut in production, and a seeming indefinite impasse within and out of [the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries] would strongly point to lower prices,” said Kerr. But “technically, the charts remain bullish,” with a cap to the upside likely around $62 or $65.

Much of April was focused on expectations that major oil producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, would reach an agreement at an April 17 meeting to freeze their crude production at January levels. They failed.

After that, some analysts forecast a drop to $30 within days. Instead, after a brief decline, oil made new highs.

Bullish traders looked for the global glut of crude inventories to subside on the back of continued declines in U.S. output and rig counts, strong gasoline demand, and athree-day oil-workers’ strike in Kuwait that trimmed the nation’s production. Then an OPEC official raised the possibility that the cartel will bring up the output freeze topic again at its June 2 meeting in Vienna.

Adding even more confusion to the oil mix, news report earlier this week said that Saudi Arabia’s state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. was poised to complete theexpansion of its Shaybah oil field by the end of May, boosting its capacity to 1 million barrels a day. That would contribute more oil to the world-wide glut.

‘The Saudis talking about moving away from oil as revenue source is pretty much fantasy and they know it. Their bread and butter is made with oil…’

Kevin Kerr, Commodities Watch

Around the time of that news, however, the kingdom also announced an economic reform plan aimed to steer the country away from its dependence on oil.

See: Meet the 30-year-old prince leading the charge to wean Saudis off oil

“The Saudis talking about moving away from oil as revenue source is pretty much fantasy and they know it,” said Kerr. “Their bread and butter is made with oil and at these price levels, it is putting the pinch into their economy.”

Read: 4 things Saudi Arabia’s economic reform play says about oil

Waiting for balance

Still, there are some convincing signs that point to higher ground for oil.

The “overcapacity on the supply side is shrinking rapidly while demand-wise, big players like China are stepping up their purchases,” said Nico Pantelis, head of research at Secular Investor.

China’s crude imports in March were the second highest on record.

U.S. government data on Wednesday revealed a seventh straight weekly decline intotal domestic oil production. At 8.938 million barrels a day, it’s down nearly 1 million barrels from the 9.22 million it was at for the week ended Jan. 1.

Jay Hatfield, president of InfraCap and portfolio manager of the InfraCap MLP exchange-traded fund AMZA, -2.10% said U.S. oil production has declined by over 600,000 barrels from its peak level and will likely continue to decline through the rest of the year—possibly by another 500,000 barrels by the end 2016.

Added to that, gasoline demand is running about 5% higher over last year, representing additional demand of roughly 500,000 barrels of oil, he said. So a total reduction of 1.1 million barrels in domestic production, combined with the increase in demand of 500,000 barrels “will bring the global market for oil into balance and is likely to maintain the price of oil in the $40-$50 range for the rest of the year,” said Hatfield.

If nothing else, traders can probably be sure of more volatility to come.

“Until something gives either way, we stay fairly range bound and key off of good old supply and demand,” said Kerr. The “weekly [petroleum] inventory report, as well as rig counts and refinery capacity, will be the driving force for traders right now,” between $45-$48 on the low end and $60-$65 on the high end for WTI, he said.

The wild cards, at least when it comes to figuring out demand for oil, are the petroleum products, said Kerr. That will be primarily gasoline as the market gears up for the summer driving season and, as we get into the fall season, heating oil, he said.

“For the meantime, the world watches and waits to see what happens next,” Kerr said.

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SINGAPURA. Minyak turun dari level tertinggi lebih dari empat bulan di tengah ramainya spekulasi kemungkinan hasil dari pertemuan produsen utama minyak membahas pembekuan. Di sisi lain, stok minyak Amerika Serikat (AS) menunjukkan bertambah pada pekan lalu.

Minyak jenis West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman Mei turun sebanyak 90 sen ke level US$ 41,27 per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange dan berada di level US$ 41,35 pada pukul 02:46 siang waktu Singapura, Rabu (13/4).

Minyak jenis ini naik US$ 1,81 ke level US$ 42,17 pada hari Selasa (12/4), yang merupakan penutupan tertinggi sejak 25 November.

Sedangkan, minyak Brent untuk pengiriman Juni kehilangan 90 sen, atau 2 % ke level US$ 43,79 per barel di ICE Futures Europe exchange yang berbasis di London.

Sebelumnya, Menteri Perminyakan Iran Bijan Namdar Zanganeh tidak akan menghadiri pertemuan produsen di Doha pada 17 April nanti dan sebagai gantinya akan mengirim perwakilan.

Sekretaris pers Kremlin Dmitry Peskov mengatakan ia masih melihat harapan dalam kesepakatan pembatasan produksi terlepas dari posisi Iran, menyusul pembicaraan antara Menteri Energi Rusia Alexander Novak dan rekan Saudi nya.

Sementara, stok minyak AS naik 6,2 juta barel pekan lalu, American Petroleum Institute mengatakan dalam laporan. Data pemerintah Rabu diperkirakan akan menunjukkan kenaikan 1 juta barel, menjaga stok tetap berada di dekat level tertinggi sejak 1930.

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Oil rose the most in two months as U.S. crude production continued to slide before talks between suppliers to discuss freezing output.

Futures climbed 6.6 percent in New York. U.S. output slid for the 10th time in 11 weeks through April 1 and crude stockpiles fell, according to data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. dropped to the lowest level since 2009 this week, Baker Hughes Inc. data show. Major producers from Saudi Arabia to Russia will meet in Doha on April 17 to discuss freezing output in a bid to stabilize prices.

“There’s a lot of nervousness about the April 17 meeting and what it will mean for the market,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York hedge fund focused on energy. “We’re still hemmed in a range below $40. Breaking through would be very bullish for the market.”

Crude slid to the lowest level in almost 13 years in February before rebounding on signs a global glut will ease. Prices have whipsawed this week amid speculation over whether an accord to cap output can be reached. Saudi Arabia said it will only agree to a freeze if it’s joined by other suppliers including Iran, while Kuwait said a deal can be done without Tehran’s support.

West Texas Intermediate for May delivery advanced $2.46 to close at $39.72 a barrel at on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It’s the biggest gain since Feb. 12. Prices climbed 8 percent this week. Total volume traded was 58 percent above the 100-day average at 2:53 p.m.

Doha Meeting

Brent for June settlement rose $2.51, or 6.4 percent, to $41.94 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The front-month contract closed at an 8-cent discount to the second-month. The global benchmark oil closed at a 95-cent premium to June WTI.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell to the lowest since June, bolstering investor demand for commodities priced in the currency. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, a gauge of 22 raw materials, increased 2 percent.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Index climbed to the highest level since December. The 10 biggest gainers on the S&P 500 were commodity companies.

Volatile Market

“Prices just flop back and forth,” said Kyle Cooper, director of research with IAF Advisors and Cypress Energy Capital Management in Houston. “The market is extremely psychotic, subject to sharp reversals on inconsequential information.”

Russia is seeking a successful result from the Doha meeting, Energy Minister Alexander Novak told reporters in Moscow Friday, adding that countries are discussing a freeze of oil production at January levels. Russian oil and condensate production will rise through 2017, even as the nation prepares for the talks, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Global oil producers won’t discuss output cuts at the Doha meeting, Ecuadorean Oil Minister Carlos Pareja said at a meeting of Latin American ministers in Quito, Ecuador.

“I’m not buying this rally,” said Stewart Glickman, an equity analyst at S&P Capital IQ in New York. “We went from $26 to $41 on optimism that something will happen to curb supply. The risks of a sharp downturn remain greater than those for a rally.”

Iranian Policy

Recent moves signal Iran is seeking to win market share, not curb output. State-run National Iranian Oil Co. will sell the Forozan Blend oil for May to Asia below the level offered by rival Saudi Aramco for Arab Medium, the third month the grade is being offered at a discount after being at a premium for almost seven years through February, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“The news doesn’t justify this move,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “We should be moving lower on the Iranian comments. Hope about the U.S. economy and the drop in shale production must be giving the market support.”

U.S. crude production slid by 14,000 barrels a day to 9.01 million a day, according to EIA data. Refinery utilization rates rose ahead of the summer driving season by 1 percentage point for a second weekly gain, to 91.4 percent of total capacity.

That number of active U.S. oil rigs has dropped steadily, slipping to 354 this week from 1,609 rigs in October 2014.

Refinery Flames

Fuel prices rose after a fire broke out at the LyondellBasell Industries NV’s refinery along the Houston Ship Channel. The facility has curbed operating rates by as much as 30 percent, a person familiar with operations said. The plant has a capacity of about 264,000 barrels a day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Gasoline for May delivery climbed 6 percent to $1.4637 a gallon, the highest settlement since March 28. Diesel for May delivery increased 6.6 percent to close at $1.2004.

Oil-market news:

  • Front-month Brent traded in backwardation on Thursday for the first time since January as scheduled maintenance at North Sea fields was seen curbing European supply.
  • Wall Street’s biggest banks need to set aside more cash to cover losses as low oil prices take their toll, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

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JAKARTA ID – Harga rata-rata minyak mentah Indonesia (Indonesian Crude Price/ICP) pada Maret lalu tercatat naik menjadi US$ 34,19 per barel, dari sebelumnya pada Februari US$ 28,92 per barel. Sedangkan harga Minas/SLC mencapai US$ 33,82 per barel, naik sebesar US$ 5,16 per barel dari US$ 28, 66 per barel pada bulan sebelumnya.

Tim Harga Minyak Mentah Indonesia mengatakan, peningkatan harga minyak mentah Indonesia tersebut sejalan dengan perkembangan harga beberapa minyak mentah utama di pasar Internasional. Peningkatan harga utamanya disebabkan oleh penurunan produksi minyak pada Februari lalu.

Berdasarkan publikasi OPEC Maret 2016, terjadi penurunan suplai minyak mentah dunia sebesar 0,21 juta barel per hari (bph) menjadi 95,73 juta bph. International Energy Agency (IEA) melaporkan suplai minyak negara OPEC turun 90 ribu bph menjadi 32,61 juta bph.

“Penurunan produksi OPEC disebabkan berkurangnya produksi oleh Irak, Nigeria, dan Uni Emirat Arab, serta penahanan produksi oleh Arab Saudi,” tutur Tim Harga Minyak Mentah Indonesia dalam keterangan resmi, Selasa (5/4).

Adanya rencana pertemuan soal rencana penahanan tingkat produksi minyak juga mempengaruhi menguatnya harga minyak. Produsen minyak anggota OPEC maupun negara lain lainnya akan bertemu di Doha, Qatar pada 17 April untuk membahas masalah ini. Terdapat 15 negara OPEC dan Non-OPEC yang menguasai 73% suplai minyak mentah dunia mendukung pertemuan di Doha tersebut.

Selanjutnya, menguatnya harga minyak juga didorong oleh penurunan stok. Berdasarkan laporan Energy Information Administration (EIA) Maret 2016, terdapat penurunan stok di Amerika Serikat pada minggu ketiga Maret dibandingkan akhir bulan Februari. Rincinya, stok gasoline turun sebesar 9,9 juta barel dan distillates 1,3 juta barel.

Selain itu, kenaikan harga minyak juga didorong oleh penurunan penggunaan rig Februari lalu menjadi 1.695 unit. Kemudian, penguatan harga juga disebabkan oleh tren nilai tukar mata uang Dolar Amerika Serikat dibandingkan basket 6 mata uang mayoritas dunia yang menurun sebesar 3,80 poin dari 98,37 menjadi 94,57 dibandingkan bulan Februari 2016.

Untuk kawasan Asia Pasifik, kenaikan harga minyak mentah juga disebabkan oleh meningkatnya impor minyak mentah Tiongkok dari Kuwait sebesar 2,1% menjadi 250 ribu bph dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya. “Selain itu juga didorong oleh meningkatnya utilisasi kilang di Jepang sebesar 1% menjadi sebesar 543.509 kiloliter (KL) per hari,” ujar Tim Harga Minyak Mentah Indonesia. (ayu)

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JAKARTA. Penurunan harga minyak mentah WTI masih terus berlanjut. Bahkan kini harganya menyentuh level terendahnya dalam sebulan terakhir.

Mengutip Bloomberg, Selasa (5/4) pukul 13.05 WIB harga minyak WTI kontrak pengiriman Mei 2016 di New York Merchantile Exchange merosot 0,31% ke level US$ 35,59 per barel dibanding hari sebelumnya.

Antisipasi pelaku pasar terhadap sajian data cadangan minyak AS menjadi penyebab penurunan harga minyak kali ini. Sebab diprediksi, akan terjadi peningkatan cadangan minyak yang membuat pasokan minyak AS terbang ke level tertingginya dalam delapan dekade terakhir.

Menurut prediksi Bloomberg Survey, cadangan minyak AS akan naik sebanyak 2,85 juta barel pekan lalu. Jika sesuai prediksi, maka ini merupakan kenaikan cadangan beruntun selama delapan pekan beruntun.

Saat pasokan masih tinggi maka sulit untuk membuat harga minyak bertahan di level atas. Sejak pernyataan negatif dari Arab Saudi kemarin momentum pergerakan harga minyak negatif,” jelas Michael McCarthy, Chief Strategist CMC Markets di Sydney, seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg, Selasa (5/4).

Tekanan lainnya datang dari laporan yang dirilis Energy Information Administration (EIA) bahwa cadangan minyak AS menyentuh 534,8 juta barel per 25 Maret 2016 lalu.

http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/harga-minyak-wti-kian-murah
Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID

marketwatch:

The end of Saudi subsidies

But now times have changed again. Here are my reasons for OPEC’s actions. First and foremost is a question of logic. Why should the lowest-cost producers of oil subsidize the highest cost? In what we know is the beginning of the end of the oil age, it simply doesn’t make any sense to let the highest-cost producers survive when the entire oil industry is slowly gliding toward a form of long-term business run off. It is not in the interest of the low-cost producers to cut production when the market will eventually kill the high-cost producers.

The International Energy Agency also just came to the same conclusion: “In 2016, we are living in perhaps the first truly free oil market we have seen since the pioneering days of the industry.” If that’s the case, low-cost producers will produce as much as possible from here on out. Oil-price increases will come from lower output from higher-cost producers who can’t finance questionably economic new projects going forward in most cases.

Saudi Arabia has no intent to cut production. Their freeze agreement with Russia and a few others is simply an acknowledgment that they have reached the point where they want to be. Anybody who listened to or read Crown Prince and defense minister of Saudi Arabia Muhammad bin Salman’s interview in January (The Economist) should have no doubts about his resolve. He realizes the power of the kingdom’s oil and is going to use it.

One clear sign that Saudi Arabia has no intention of cutting production is the likelihood that they are taking Saudi Aramco public. By doing this, Saudi Arabia can claim that they are not in control of oil production, the same way that Russia and western nations do when they point out their oil companies are privately owned. By taking Aramco public, the Saudis can take a windfall and create a cash-flow machine for the royal family and the country (presumably). I could see a small cut in Saudi oil production just ahead of taking Aramco public to goose the IPO, but not likely before then.

What about the other players?

Iran has stated that they will increase production by a million barrels per day over the next year. While they probably miss on that target, there is no doubt they are on a path to much higher production. The rest of OPEC will never cut to offset Iranian production entering the market over the next two years when higher-cost oil will die anyway.

Iraq, while they have signed off on the freeze, is only partially signing off. The Kurds in the north, who operate independently (though maybe not completely legally), are not going to stop increasing oil production short term. Longer term, Iraq is unlikely to hold the line as they need more revenue to rebuild.

Libya is over a million barrels per day below their normal production due to the civil war there. At some point, that production will come back to the market, as they too will need to rebuild.

Non-OPEC adjustments

So, over the next year or two, there is virtually no chance that OPEC cuts production. After that, they might cut production slightly to maintain pricing, but not at the expense of market share. We will continue to see the adjustments to supply come from non-OPEC higher-cost producers depleting assets and not reinvesting. OPEC will not only keep their market share, they will increase it by a couple of million barrels most likely. I’ve come to agree with those who think the oil market won’t clear until the price of oil hits $20/barrel or lower for a day or two — likely sometime this spring, in my opinion — and trades in a range of $25 to $45 for a period as the National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC recently suggested.

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Singapore, March 30, 2016 (AFP)
Oil prices were lifted Wednesday by a weaker dollar after Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen signalled a cautious approach to US interest rate hikes, but rises were tempered by worries about a supply glut.

A US energy department report to be released later in the day is expected to show another rise in US commercial crude stockpiles, indicating softer demand in the world’s top oil consumer.

At around 0340 GMT Wednesday, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for May delivery was up 30 cents, or 0.78 percent, at $38.58 and Brent crude for May was 18 cents, or 0.46 percent, higher at $39.32.

Both contracts had been sliding since the middle of last week after bouncing back from near 13-year lows reached in February.

The dollar weakened after Yellen said Tuesday that interest rates were not likely to rise before June and that any move will be slow and gradual.

A weaker US currency makes dollar-priced oil cheaper for holders of other units, encouraging traders to buy and lifting prices.

But analysts said any oil price rise not driven by real demand is unlikely to last.

“The oil price advance today is going to be quite limited. If it hinges on US dollar weakness, it is not going to go much higher,” said Bernard Aw, market strategist at IG Markets in Singapore.

“In the longer term, it’s still a demand and supply game. It’s still a supply glut issue. There’s only so much the US dollar can do.”

Prices have collapsed from levels above $100 in mid-2014 largely due to supply outrunning demand as global economies, particularly China, suffer a growth slowdown.

Major producers led by Russia and Saudi Arabia will meet in Doha on April 17 to discuss measures to stabilise prices, including a proposal to freeze output.

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Liputan6.com, Jakarta Harga minyak bervariasi pada penutupan perdagangan Selasa, sebagai imbas dari serangan Brussels yang menewaskan puluhan orang. Harga minyak Amerika Serikat tergelincir, sementara minyak acuan dunia naik.

Brent, minyak acuan global ditutup naik 26 sen ke level US$ 41,8 per barel setelah menyentuh sesi rendah di level US$ 40,97.

Sementara harga minyak acuan AS untuk kontrak Mei ditutup di level lebih rendah 7 sen atau 0,1 persen ke angka US$ 41,45 per barel, puliih dari perdagangan rendah di intraday US$ 40,77.

Dolar melemah terhadap euro juga telah membuat minyak lebih terjangkau untuk pembeli yang menggunakan mata uang tunggal.

“Minyak sangat terganggu oleh peristiwa makro saat ini, mengukur sentimen di pasar yang lebih luas dan mengambil aksi dari itu,” kata Matthew Smith, direktur riset komoditas di data Clipper New York dilansir dari CNBC, Rabu (23/3/2016).

Setidaknya 30 orang tewas dalam serangan di bandara Brussels dan kereta metro jam-jam sibuk di ibukota Belgia, menurut lembaga penyiaran publik VRT, memicu peringatan keamanan di seluruh Eropa dan membawa beberapa lalu lintas batas berhenti.

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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Harga minyak bertahan di atas US$41 per barel di New York di tengah tekanan spekulasi kenaikan stok minyak mentah di Amerika Serikat.

Perdagangan kontrak minyak WTI ditutup turun 0,17% ke US$41,45 per barel, sedangkan Brent bergerak naik 0,07% ke US$41,57 per barel pada pukul 04.21 WIB.

Harga minyak cenderung stagnan setelah sempat merosot hingga 1,8% beberapa saat setelah ledakan bom di bandara udara dan stasiun kereta bawah tanah di Brussels, Belgia.

“Pada awalnya pasar komoditas beraksi terhadap teror di Brussels. Namun, pelemahan hanya sesaat. Pasar didukung banyak sentimen positif,” kata John Kilduff dari Again Capital LLC kepadaBloomberg.

Tekanan terhadap pergerakan harga minyak justru muncul di penghujung perdagangan dari spekulasi kenaikan stok minyak mentah AS sebanyak 8,8 juta barel pada pekan lalu. Kenaikan tersebut membuat stok di AS semakin melimpah meskipun sudah berada di volume terbanyak dalam 86 hari terakhir.

Adapun survei Bloomberg memproyeksikan kenaikan stok sebanyak 2,53 juta barel per pekan lalu. Kenaikan stok minyak mentah diiringi oleh penurunan stok bensis sebanyak 2,2 juta barel. Konsumsi BBM di AS tercatat sebanyak 9,36 juta barel dalam 4 minggu terakhir, level konsumsi tertinggi dalam 10 tahun.

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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Harga minyak melanjutkan penguatan setelah sehari terkoreksi, didorong optimisme investor atas penurunan stok minyak global.

Minyak jenis WTI diperdagangkan menguat 1,19% ke US$39,91 per barel pada perdagangan Selasa (22/3/201) pukul 03.34 WIB, sedangkan Brent bergerak naik 0,85% ke US$41,55 per barel pada pukul 04.09 WIB.

“Persediaan minyak akan merosot dan harga akan naik, hanya menunggu waktu,” kata Jay Hatfieled dari Infrastructure Cap Advisors di New York kepada Bloomberg.

Energy Information Administration pekan lalu menyatakan produksi minyak di Negeri Paman Sam turun 10.000 barel per hari menjadi 9,07 juta barel per hari yaitu level terendah sejak November 2014

Rencana pertemuan 15–16 negara produsen minyak di Qatar pada 17 April untuk membicarakan pembekuan pertumbuhan produksi juga berpotensi penurunan stok minyak global juga berpotensi mengikis stok minyak dunia.

Harga minyak telah naik lebih dari 50% sejak menyentuh level terendah 12 tahun pada Februari. Harga mulai menanjak setelah pengumuman kesepakatan antara Arab Saudi dan Rusia untuk mempertahankan output di level Januari.

Spekulasi harga minyak bergerak menguat naik 17% sepanjang minggu lalu, kini berada di level tertinggi sejak Juni. Adapun kontrak yang bertaruh atas kenaikan harga minyak naik 15.122 kontrak menjadi 348.082 kontrak dalam sepekan.

“Pasar didorong oleh traders yang percaya keseimbangan pasar akan terjadi tahun ini. Berita ekonomi positif, penurunan produksi AS dan persetujuan pembekuan bisa memberi tambahan dorongan pada reli,” kata Gene McGillian dari Tradition Energy kepada Bloomberg.

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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Ekspor minyak Iran naik ke level tertinggi dalam 22 bulan pada Januari setelah sanksi ekonomi negara tersebut berakhir, membuka jalan mereka untuk mengekspor lebih tinggi ke Asia dan penjualan baru ke Eropa dan Afrika.

Berdasarkan data Joint Organization Data Initiative (JODI) yang berbasis di Riyadh, yang dikutip Jumat (18/1/2016), volume ekspor minyak iran naik menjadi 1,55 juta barel per hari, tertinggi sejak Maret 2014 dan 9,2% lebih tinggi dari bulan sebelumnya. Produksi minyak negara tersebut naik menjadi 3,37 juta barel, terbesar sejak Februari 2014.

Iran berencana meningkatkan produksi menjadi 4 juta barel per hari, sebelum mempertimbangkan bergabung dengan produsen lainnya dalam proposal pembekuan output produksi.

Menurut data JODI, jika rencana peningkatan produksi tersebut terealisasi, maka itu akan menjadi yang tertinggi sejak Oktober 2008. Iran merupakan negara produsen kedua OPEC, sebelum dikenakan peningkatan sanksi pada 2012.

Bulan lalu, negara tersebut telah mengirimkan kargo pertamanya ke Eropa sejak 2012. National Iranian Oil Co. telah menandatangai kontrak penjualan sekitar 400.000 barel minyak mentah per hari untuk perusahaan rafinasi di Eropa. Namun jumlah tersebut masih belum bisa terpenuhi, karena restriksi keuangan yang masih berlaku.

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oil price.com: Oil prices have shown signs of life over the past few weeks, as production declines in the U.S. raise expectations that the market is starting to adjust. As a result, Brent crude recently surpassed $40 per barrel for the first time in months.

A growling list of companies are capitulating, announcing production cuts for 2016. Continental Resources, for example, could see output fall by 10 percent. A range of other companies have made similar announcements in recent weeks. The energy world has been speculating about declines from U.S. shale, and the declines are finally starting to show up in the data.

Despite the newfound optimism that oil markets are balancing out, crude oil sitting in storage is at a record high in the United States. Energy investors may have preferred to focus U.S. production declines, or the fall in gasoline inventoriesin early March, but meanwhile crude oil stocks continue to signal that oversupply persists.

Related: Why Oil Prices May Not Move Higher

Crude stocks rose once again last week, hitting yet another record of 521 million barrels. Storage levels at Cushing, Oklahoma, an all-important hub where the WTI benchmark price is determined, have surpassed 90 percent of capacity. U.S. output may be starting to decline, but it is doing so at a painfully slow rate.

It isn’t just a U.S. problem. Crude oil storage levels continue to climb around the world. Commercial stocks in the OECD surpassed 3 billion barrels in 2015. TheEIA sees oil storage in the OECD rising to 3.24 billion barrels by the end of this year. It doesn’t stop there. Storage levels rise a bit more next year, hitting 3.30 billion barrels by the end of 2017.

That is a staggering forecast that should scare any oil investor. It also suggests that the price rally over the past few weeks, which has pushed oil prices up around 40 percent since early February, could be fleeting. There is evidence that suggests the rally was driven by speculators closing out short bets on oil, after accruing net-short positions at multiyear highs in recent months. In early March, hedge funds and other major investors shed short positions at the fastest rate in almost a year. The rally, then, hinged on the sudden shift in sentiment from oil speculators.

 nozzlerose KECIL

marketwatch:Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are planning to meet with Russian energy officials and other oil producers in Doha on April 17 to hash out an agreement to limit output, the Qatari oil ministry said Wednesday.

Talks have been going on for weeks to set up a meeting between OPEC members like Saudi Arabia and Venezuela and big producers outside the group like Russia. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and Qatar had already agreed on Feb. 16 to limit their oil production to January levels, as long as other big producers like Iran follow suit.

A Qatari oil ministry news release called that agreement the “Doha initiative” and credited it with changing the sentiment of the oil market. Crude prices CLJ6, +1.90%LCOK6, +1.70%  have rallied in recent weeks to nearly $40 a barrel since sinking to less than $27 a barrel in January, the lowest levels in more than a decade and down almost three quarters since June 2014.

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So much for “drill, baby, drill.”

The number of active oil and natural gas rigs in the U.S. has plunged to the lowest level on record going back to 1949, according to a Baker Hughes report released on Friday.

It’s a reflection of the dramatic downturn in the U.S. energy industry caused by excess supply. Last month, oil prices plunged to a 13-year low of $26 a barrel, even though they have recentlybounced back to $39. Natural gas prices remain near 17-year lows.

Baker Hughes said there were just 480 rigs drilling for oil and natural gas last week, down by a stunning 57% from the year before. The previous low was set in 1999.

oil gas rigs decline

Related: What oil crash? Gulf of Mexico pumping like never before

Oil rigs have been shutting down at warp speed in recent months. Just last week, Baker Hughes said the rig count fell by six to 386, the lowest since 2009.

The rig count topped out at 2,026 back in November 2011 when oil prices were comfortably sitting near $100 a barrel.

Drilling has gone dark at many U.S. shale fields because they require higher prices to turn a profit.

Even though U.S. oil rig counts have been falling sharply since late 2014, actual production has been surprisingly resilient. That’s because oil companies have been getting more out of existing fields and are focusing on their most economical projects. Domestic production has also been boosted by strong output from deepwater projects in the Gulf of Mexico.

The U.S. pumped 9.26 million barrels of oil in December, down 2% from the year before and 4.5% from the April 2015 peak.

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London, March 11, 2016 (AFP)
Oil prices barrelled higher this week to mark the fourth successive weekly gain, sparking talk that the commodities rout was over.

The price of iron ore also surged on Chinese demand hopes, further fuelling speculation of an end to the commodities selloff.

However, analysts cautioned that the recent recovery could mark merely an upward blip on a broader downward trend.

“The recent moves in commodity markets are simply a correction of a very oversold market,” warned analyst Craig Erlam at trading firm Oanda.

“It is very natural for this to occur but does not indicate an end of the selloff just yet,” he told AFP.

“Fundamentally, very little has changed. We remain in a very oversupplied market.”

Goldman Sachs analysts argued in a research note that commodity prices were experiencing a “premature surge” that they believed was “not sustainable”.

“While we still believe oil will likely rebalance this year and create a deficit market by year-end, ‘green shoots’ of a deficit alone are not sufficient for a new sustainable bull market,” Goldman analysts wrote.

“Only a real physical deficit can create a sustainable rally.”

– Not out of woods yet –

ANZ Bank analysts meanwhile declared that commodities from crude oil to copper were “showing signs” that the worst of the rout may be over.

“Sentiment has picked up… This is not to say we are completely out of the woods,” they cautioned.

This week, London Brent crude jumped Tuesday to $41.48 per barrel, the highest since December 9, 2015.

New York’s West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil hit a similar peak at $39.02 on Friday, aided also by strengthening US gasoline consumption and easing output.

The oil market has staged an impressive rally since January, when it collapsed close to 13-year lows on a chronic supply glut.

The recent upswing in prices prompted the International Energy Agency to declare Friday that the market may have “bottomed out”.

However, the IEA argued that there is a long way to go before oil supply and demand find a real balance, probably in 2017.

“International crude oil prices have recovered remarkably in recent weeks,” the IEA noted in its monthly market report.

“This should not, however, be taken as a definitive sign that the worst is necessarily over. Even so, there are signs that prices might have bottomed out.”

Back in January, Brent had tumbled to $27.10 and WTI to $26.05 in a heavy slump that was also rooted in worries of an impending global recession that would ravage demand.

Sentiment has since been boosted by growing hopes of a producers’ oil output freeze deal and the brighter economic outlook.

Nevertheless, prices have still crashed by 60 percent since striking highs above $100 in mid-2014, plagued by stubborn oversupply, booming US shale output and the OPEC oil cartel’s refusal to curb record production.

– Global recession fears dim –

“People are not as concerned about an imminent global recession as they were at the start of the year when fear took over,” Erlam told AFP.

“We were also overdue a correction in commodity markets following what was a remarkable sell-off over the last 18 months.

“The latter suggests these (upward) moves are likely to be temporary and further downside could come in the second quarter of the year,” he warned.

Many commodities also extended their recovery after the European Central Bank delivered fresh economic stimulus on Thursday.

The dollar initially rallied against the euro after the stimulus and interest rate cuts, but then slumped after ECB chief Mario Draghi suggested more action was not planned.

Gold was catapulted on Friday to a 13-month peak at $1,285.18 per ounce, boosted by the weak greenback which stimulates demand for dollar-denominated raw materials.

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<org idsrc=”isin” value=”US38141G1040″>GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP</org>

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Singapore, March 10, 2016 (AFP)
Oil prices held most of the previous day’s strong gains Thursday, but while a dive in US gasoline stockpiles fuelled hopes for a pick-up in demand, traders remain on edge over the long-running supply glut.

Both main contracts soared on Wednesday, with US benchmark West Texas Intermediate hitting a more than three-month high and Brent breaking $41 after the US energy department report.

The figures showed gasoline inventories plunged three times faster than expected while the country’s commercial crude stockpiles rose almost two-thirds less than forecast. WTI put on 4.9 percent and Brent 3.6 percent soon after the data.

On Thursday WTI eased five cents to $38.24 and Brent dipped 14 cents to $40.93.

Analysts said it remains to be seen whether the price rise would be sustained, especially after China this week reported a plunge in exports in February, stirring renewed fears of a “hard landing” for the world’s second biggest economy.

“I’m still not leaning towards prices moving up sustainably because the fundamentals have not changed,” said Phillip Futures analyst Daniel Ang.

He pointed to US crude production, which he said rose marginally last week after weeks of decline, describing it as “rather bearish” for prices.

EY oil and gas analyst Sanjeev Gupta said the market it looking forward to a March 20 meeting of major crude producers to discuss an output freeze proposed by key players Russia and Saudi Arabia aimed at stabilising prices.

The meeting “will provide vital clues about price development in the near term”, Gupta said, but other analysts have cautioned against too much expectations that an agreement will be reached.

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JAKARTA. Reli harga minyak kembali menjadi energi utama yang menopang penguatan indeks Wall Street menjelang rapat European Central Bank.

Indeks Standard & Poor’s 500 ditutup menguat 0,51% atau 10 poin ke level 1.989,26 pada perdagangan Rabu (9/3/2016), sedangkan Dow Jones berakhir naik 0,21% atau 36,26 poin ke level 17.000,36.

Wall Street rebound setelah kemarin mengakhiri reli 5 hari. Indeks bursa New York telah naik 8,8% sejak menyentuh level terendah pada Februari didorong oleh rebound saham-saham perbankan dan komoditas. Reli dalam beberapa pekan terakhir memangkas pelemahan sejak awal tahun dari 11% menjadi sekitar 3%.

Saham-saham di bursa Amerika Serikat hari ini rebound di saat investor menanti hasil rapat ECB yang mulai berlangsung hari ini. ECB diperkirakan akan mengambil langkah tambahan untuk mendongkrak laju inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Eropa.

“Investor menunggu apa yang akan diumumkan ECB besok. Mereka butuh diyakinkan untuk mendoron S&P melewati level 2.000. Namun, pasar saham masih rebound mengikuti harga minyak,” kata Michael James dari Wedbush Securities di Los Angeles kepada Bloomberg.

Kontrak WTI di bursa komoditas New York sempat diperdagangkan di US$38,51 per barel atau level tertinggi 3 bulan. Pada pukul 04.52 WIB, WTI menguat 4,66% ke US$38,20 per barel.

Beberapa saham yang bergerak signifikan hari ini termasuk Chevron Corp yang naik 4,6%, Nike Inc. yang melemah 2,5%, dan Goldman Sachs Group Inc. yang turun 1,1%.

http://market.bisnis.com/read/20160310/7/526669/bursa-as-indeks-dow-jones-ikut-harga-minyak
Sumber : BISNIS.COM

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New York – Harga minyak dunia melonjak, Selasa (08/03/2016) pagi WIB. Itu karena data menunjukkan para produsen minyak telah mengurangi produksi mereka di tengah harga yang rendah.

Patokan AS, minyak mentahh West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman April, naik US$1,98 menjadi menetap di US$37,9 per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange. Sementara itu, patokan Eropa, minyak mentah Brent untuk pengiriman Mei, naik US$2,12 menjadi berakhir US$40,84 per barel di London ICE Futures Exchange.

Perusahaan-perusahaan energi AS mengurangi rig minyak mereka untuk pekan kesebelas berturut-turut, menurut data yang dirilis oleh perusahaan jasa minyak Baker Hughes, Jumat.

Para analis memperkirakan perusahaan minyak serpih besar AS terus memangkas pengeluaran. Produksi minyak mentah AS jatuh menjadi 9,077 juta barel per hari pada minggu yang berakhir 26 Februari, penurunan 25.000 barel per hari, menurut laporan yang diterbitkan oleh Badan Informasi Energi AS baru-baru ini.

Pasar juga terangkat karena Arab Saudi dan Rusia baru-baru ini mengumumkan bahwa mereka akan menghentikan peningkatan produksi, dan mendorong produsen-produsen besar lainnya untuk mengikuti langkah mereka.

http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2279476/harga-minyak-dunia-naik-karena-pasokan-rendah
Sumber : INILAH.COM

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NEW YORK – Harga minyak dunia melonjak pada Senin (Selasa pagi WIB), karena data menunjukkan para produsen minyak telah mengurangi produksi mereka di tengah harga yang rendah.

Patokan AS, minyak mentahh West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman April, naik USD1,98 menjadi menetap di USD37,9 per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange.

Sementara itu, patokan Eropa, minyak mentah Brent untuk pengiriman Mei, naik USD2,12 menjadi ditutup pada USD40,84 per barel di London ICE Futures Exchange.

Perusahaan-perusahaan energi AS mengurangi rig minyak mereka untuk pekan kesebelas berturut-turut, menurut data yang dirilis oleh perusahaan jasa minyak Baker Hughes, Jumat.

Para analis memperkirakan perusahaan minyak serpih besar AS terus memangkas pengeluaran.

Produksi minyak mentah AS jatuh menjadi 9,077 juta barel per hari pada minggu yang berakhir 26 Februari, penurunan 25.000 barel per hari, menurut laporan yang diterbitkan oleh Badan Informasi Energi AS baru-baru ini.

Pasar juga terangkat karena Arab Saudi dan Rusia baru-baru ini mengumumkan bahwa mereka akan menghentikan peningkatan produksi, dan mendorong produsen-produsen besar lainnya untuk mengikuti langkah mereka.

http://economy.okezone.com/read/2016/03/08/320/1330299/harga-minyak-dunia-melonjak-ke-usd37-9-per-barel

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Sumber : OKEZONE.COM

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Singapore, March 4, 2016 (AFP)
Oil prices rose in Asia Friday after Nigeria said key crude producers plan to meet in Russia later this month to discuss a proposed output freeze.

The pick-up follows a week of gains for the battered commodity, which in January was wallowing near 13-year lows below $30 a barrel owing to overproduction, a supply glut and a slowdown in the global economy.

Nigerian oil minister Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu said Thursday that the meeting will be held on March 20 and predicted there will be a “dramatic price movement”, Bloomberg News reported.

At around 0400 GMT, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for April delivery was 24 cents higher at $34.81 a barrel. Brent for May rose 11 cents to $37.18 a barrel.

Both have gained about $2 since last week.

Crude has picked up recently following speculation over plans by major oil producers including OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia to cap output.

Market strategist Bernard Aw from IG Markets Singapore told AFP that for the potential meeting between OPEC members and Russia to bear fruit, the major producers have to be present.

“If the big players such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, agree to freeze output, it could help somewhat. But, the fundamentals of the market remain largely unchanged, it is still quite oversupplied.

“Maybe in the short term it will help development in the oil market, we could see a return to maybe $40,” Aw said.

Another boost to the hammered commodity was US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data released Thursday showing oil production falling to just over nine million barrels per day in the week to February 26.

“There were a series of positive developments in the oil market… If this keeps up, then I think we will see a more sustainable rebound in oil markets, at least for the near term,” Aw added.

Oil is still down about six percent this year on speculation a global glut will be prolonged amid brimming US stockpiles and the outlook for increased exports from Iran after the removal of sanctions, Bloomberg reported.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela agreed on February 16 in Doha that they would freeze output if other producers followed suit in an effort to tackle the oversupply problem.

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Jakarta -Sepanjang Februari 2016, harga rata-rata minyak mentah Indonesia (Indonesia Crude Price/ICP) mencapai US$ 28,92/barel, naik tipis US$ 1,43/barel dibandingkan Januari 2016.

Dalam data Kementerian ESDM, Rabu (2/3/2016), disebutkan, harga minyak Minas/SLC di Februari 2016 naik US$ 2,03/barel menjadi US$ 28,66/barel.

Tim Harga Minyak Indonesia menyatakan, peningkatan harga minyak mentah Indonesia tersebut sejalan dengan perkembangan harga minyak mentah utama di pasar Internasional, yang diakibatkan oleh beberapa faktor yakni:

  • Menurunnya suplai minyak mintah dunia sebesar 0,5 juta barel/hari setelah Arab Saudi, Qatar, Rusia, dan Venezuela setuju untuk membekukan produksi minyak mentah untuk tetap dengan tingkat produksi tahun 2015, serta semaraknya penurunan produksi Shale Oil di Amerika Serikat.
  • Berdasarkan publikasi OPEC Februari 2016, permintaan minyak mentah dunia kuartal I-2016 meningkat 0,37 juta barel/hari dibandingkan tahun 2015 menjadi 93,33 juta barel/hari.
  • Berdasarkan publikasi OPEC Februari 2016, penggunaan rig dunia Januari 2016 menurun 44 rig dibandingkan Desember 2015.
  • Berdasarkan ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), nilai tukar mata uang dolar AS dibandingkan basket 6 mata uang mayoritas dunia menurun sebesar 1,37 poin.

Dinyatakan pula, anomali untuk minyak mentah WTI (Nymex), terjadi penurunan harga yang diakibatkan oleh beberapa faktor yakni:
– Berdasarkan publikasi OPEC Februari 2016, terjadi revisi turun tingkat perkembangan ekonomi Amerika Serikat sebesar 0,3% dibandingkan publikasi bulan sebelumnya.
– Berdasarkan laporan EIA (Energy Information Administration) Februari 2016, terdapat peningkatan stok minyak mentah, gasoline dan distillates di Amerika Serikat dibandingkan Januari 2016 sebagai berikut:

  1. Stok minyak mentah naik sebesar 4,9 juta barel.
  2. Stok gasoline naik sebesar 2,1 juta barel.
  3. Stok distillates naik sebesar 1,0 juta barel.

Untuk kawasan Asia Pasifik, peningkatan harga minyak mentah juga dipengaruhi oleh meningkatnya utilisasi kilang Singapura sebesar 1,1% menjadi 1,13 juta barel/hari dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya.

Perkembangan harga rata-rata minyak mentah utama di pasar Internasional pada Februari 2016 dibandingkan Januari 2016 mengalami variasi, sehingga perkembangannya menjadi sebagai berikut:

  • WTI (Nymex) turun sebesar US$ 1,16/barel dari US$ 31,78/barel menjadi US$ 30,62/barel.
  • Brent (ICE) naik sebesar US$ 1,55/barel dari US$ 31,98/barel menjadi US$ 33,53/barel.
  • Basket OPEC naik sebesar US$ 2,15/barel dari US$ 26,50/barel menjadi US$ 28,65/barel.

(wdl/wdl)

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LONDON. Minyak masih bertahan di level mendekati penutupan tertinggi dalam delapan pekan. Pemicunya data minyak mentah Amerika Serikat (AS) yang menurun di tengah pelonggaran volatilitas harga.

Minyak jenis West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman April berada di level US$ 34,61 per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange, turun 5 sen, pukul 07:54 waktu pagi London. Kontrak minyak jenis ini naik 26 sen menjadi US$ 34,66 pada hari Rabu (2/3), penutupan tertinggi sejak Januari 5.

Output minyak AS turun untuk pekan keenam untuk 9.080.000 barel per hari, level terendah sejak November 2014, menurut Administrasi Informasi Energi.

Persediaan minyak mentah naik, menjaga persediaan tertinggi dalam lebih dari delapan dekade. Indeks CBOE Crude Oil Volatility yang mengukur ekspektasi perubahan harga, turun ke level terendah sejak 6 Januari. “Apa yang telah paling penting adalah menenangkan pasar,” kata Michael McCarthy, a chief strategist at CMC Markets.

Asal tahu saja, minyak masih turun sekitar 7 % tahun ini karena spekulasi melimpahnya pasokan global akan berkepanjangan di tengah stok AS dan prospek untuk meningkatkan ekspor dari Iran setelah penghapusan sanksi.

http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/minyak-bertahan-mendekati-level-tertinggi-8-pekan
Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID

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