minyaa(rebounding@$51/b)AAAk (3)… ekspektasi 2016


batas bawah/ support HARGA MINYAK nehweoupdateinfo_0715

strategy&: Leave the worrying about the highs and lows of oil prices to obsessed analysts and headline writers. That volatile aspect of the energy business is largely out of the control of industry leaders. Instead, oil and gas companies (producers or refiners) whose strategic future is still a puzzle should be asking a couple of simple questions, mostly divorced from the cost of oil:

  • Where do we go to lock in demand?
  • Are we prepared to thrive in a business environment that is oversupplied?

If both questions are adequately — and, in some cases, fearlessly — addressed, oil and gas companies should be able to forge a pathway for success, no matter how uncertain the prices for their products.

The ground in the oil patch has shifted dramatically. The forecast for the industry is extremely different today compared with how it looked just a couple of years ago, when the fundamentals of the oil industry were controlled by cartels. That traditional structural discipline has been replaced by a systemic imbalance marked by vastly increased supply and receding demand growth. Global economic weakness (in particular, slower growth in China and continuing financial woes in Europe); tougher fuel economy regulations; more viable forms of alternative energy; and the development of extraordinarily efficient engines on equipment as varied as cars, earthmovers, and power plants have all combined to dramatically curtail the need for oil. Meanwhile, robust new reserves, especially of shale oil, in numerous regions around the world are glutting the market.

The increase in the supply of petroleum and other liquid fuels was twice that of consumption.

Little surprise, then, that the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that in 2014 the increase in the global supply of petroleum and other liquid fuels was almost twice the increase in consumption. That was a recipe for lower prices and shrinking profits. And it presents a troubling outlook for oil giants such as ExxonMobil, BP, Total, Chevron, and Shell that invested tens of billions of dollars in oil exploration when prices were high but did not enjoy a concomitant boost in production or profit margins. Though they’ve slimmed down by shedding unprofitable units and cutting back on investment more recently, these companies still face increased competition from an array of state-owned oil companies and independents.

Fortunately, the picture is a little bit brighter in the gas sector: Global demand for natural gas is expected to have risen by 2.2 percent per year by the end of 2019, according to the International Energy Agency. Yet although natural gas will likely continue to represent an increased share of the global energy mix, a share growing by 2.4 percent annually until 2018, analysts expect production to exceed demand in the short term.

Adjusting to the new reality

As oil and gas producers examine questions about locking in demand and thriving during a period of oversupply, they will inevitably also ask themselves: Do we need to improve the efficiency of our operation or adjust our portfolio? Some companies that we have worked with have chosen to evaluate whether they are “fit for 50” (as in US$50/barrel), which is like being healthy enough to run an ultramarathon even if you may not need to run one. But even if being fit for 50 seems too draconian, oil and gas companies, emerging from a period of high growth and rapid expansion into an era of oversupply, must now redirect their efforts. Their primary focus now should be on driving capital and operating efficiency to preserve their margins and maintain the reinvestment rates necessary to grow production.

Firms have harnessed digitization and robotics to squeeze higher volumes with less investment.

Though it may be surprising, the industry has demonstrated the ability to be innovative and to lower costs when necessary. Producers and refiners have harnessed new technological advances, such as digitization, robotics, and analytics, to squeeze out higher volumes with less investment. But these digital breakthroughs have not often extended to “above the ground” parts of the operation; for example, the logistics of water and waste management in shale oil fields are far from best in class, and lean manufacturing techniques are seldom used by upstream operators. It’s necessary now to tackle these shortcomings and other similar ones. In doing so, oil and gas companies can confront oversupply with increased efficiency and reduced costs.

Additionally, oil and gas producers need to carefully evaluate their portfolios, field by field, to ensure that each operation is a good fit for the company’s core strengths, customer demographics, and preferences and skill sets. Only a few companies will successfully shore up demand and improve margins by consolidating their strongest assets, yet in our view it is an essential element of survival in the energy industry today.

For downstream players, guaranteeing a buyer for their product is everything; the need to confront demand challenges head-on cannot be underestimated. North American and European markets are shrinking to the point where they can no longer absorb all of the oil and gas refined in the region (the U.S. now exports more than 1 million barrels per day of energy products). Increasingly, refiners must look beyond their borders for customers. But what they inevitably find in global markets is fierce competition from the Middle East and other longtime exporters that have built large modern refineries hoping to serve Asian demand. To compete effectively in this environment, downstream companies must either secure more robust and long-term relationships with established and new customers or seek out smaller niche markets to avoid head-to-head rivalries that have the potential to destroy their profit margins.

Conclusion

The biggest mistake that oil and gas companies can make in this difficult business landscape is to focus solely on reducing costs (either operating or general and administrative) and spending; this strategy is effective only in a very narrow range of market conditions and rarely effective enough to make businesses successful over the long term. Rather, companies should carefully consider

  • the supply of assets,
  • analyze the logistics of accessing available markets, and
  • ensure a long-term presence in these markets without getting into a bidding war. Oversupply and lower prices represent a real challenge to the industry, but that doesn’t mean the future is all gloom. It just means that producers and refiners need to be prepared and adopt strategies that take advantage of the new reality.

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di atas $50/b 2016: 

Singapore, June 10, 2016 (AFP)
Crude prices dipped further in Asia on Friday on a stronger dollar, dampening a rally that saw the commodity hit 11-month highs earlier in the week.

The losses were in line with a sell-off on equities markets from Asia to the Americas fuelled by worries about the state of the global economy.

The greenback was boosted by better than expected US unemployment numbers, making oil more expensive and dampening demand.

Traders, however, expect a fresh boost for oil futures if there are new signs of tightening supplies.

“If the positive developments we are seeing like the tightening supply (and) increasing demand in the oil sector continue to develop for the next couple of months, then maybe the strengthening US dollar might not have that great an impact,” said IG Markets’ analyst Bernard Aw.

At around 0825 GMT, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate was 57 cents, or 1.13 percent, down at $49.99 while Brent North Sea crude was 56 cents, or 1.08 percent, lower at $51.39.

Prices have almost doubled since hitting near 13-year lows at the start of the year as US supplies slowly shrink, while production in Nigeria is hit by rebel unrest and Canada’s key oil region is ravaged by wildfires.

On Wednesday the Department of Energy said US commercial stocks fell much more than expected in the week to June 3, fanning talk that demand is improving in the world’s biggest oil consumer.

“As long as prices stay above $50, the uptrend should still be intact,” Aw added.

nozzle

JAKARTA. Harga minyak stabil di atas level US$50 per barel seiring dengan prediksi menurunnya persediaan global. Bila sepekan ini WTI ditutup melebihi US$51, maka peluang reli lebih lanjut kian terbuka.

Pada perdagangan Kamis (9/6) pukul 11:30 WIB harga minyak WTI kontrak Juli 2016 naik 0,32 poin atau 0,62% menuju US$51,55 per barel. Dalam waktu yang sama, harga minyak Brent kontrak Agustus 2016 meningkat 0,20 poin atau 0,38% menjadi US$52,71 per barel.

Dalam tiga sesi perdagangan terakhir, harga minyak stabil di atas level US$50 per barel. Faktor utama yang mendorong ialah persedian minyak mentah AS kembali menurun, gangguan produksi di Nigeria, dan proyeksi meningkatnya permintaan.

Data resmi pemerintah dari U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) yang dirilis pada Rabu (9/6) waktu setempat menuliskan, persediaan minyak mentah mingguan Paman Sam pekan lalu merosot 3,226 juta barel menuju ke 532,476 juta barel.

Meskipun demikian, level produksi minyak mentah dalam waktu yang sama meningkat tipis 0,11% menuju 8,745 juta barel per hari dari minggu sebelumnya sebanyak 8,735 juta barel per hari.

Menurut proyeksi EIA, permintaan bensin AS akan mencapai rekor tertinggi, yakni 9,5 juta barel per hari selama kuartal II/2016. Angka ini naik dari estimasi Mei sebesar 9,48 juta barel per hari.

Dari segi produksi, penyedotan akan terus menurun menjadi 8,1 juta barel per hari pada kuartal III/2017. Sebelumnya di kuartal I/2016, level produksi mencapai 9,2 juta barel per hari.

Jameel Ahmad, Chief Market Analyst FXTM, dalam publikasi risetnya, Kamis (9/6/2016) menuturkan eksportir besar minyak mentah akan bergembira dengan harga minyak WTI yang mencapai level tertinggi 10 bulan di atas kisaran US$50,85 per barel kemarin.

Sejumlah faktor yang mungkin menjelaskan langkah investor ingin membuka posisi beli, antara lain potensi gangguan pasokan di Nigeria, ekspektasi peningkatan permintaan global, dan melemahnya dolar AS.

Prospek paruh kedua 2016 dari sejumlah institusi terkemuka mengatakan persediaan minyak mentah global akan mengalami penurunan tajam. Alhasil, dalam jangka waktu menengah harga minyak mungkin semakin menguat.

Walaupun surplus suplai minyak di dunia masih terus menciptakan bias negatif terhadap pasar minyak, Jameel menyampaikan, penutupan mingguan di atas US$51 pada akhir pekan perdagangan ini dapat membuka jalan menuju peningkatan harga lebih lanjut.

http://market.bisnis.com/read/20160609/94/556111/harga-minyak-wti-tembus-us51-reli-akan-berlanjut
Sumber : BISNIS.COM

buttrock

That may seem counterintuitive in an industry that has been rapidly shedding workers, with more than 350,000 people laid off in the oil and gas industry worldwide.

Texas is one place feeling the pain. Around 99,000 direct and indirect jobs in the Lone Star state have been eliminated since prices collapsed two years ago, or about one third of the entire industry. In April alone there were about 6,300 people in oil and gas and supporting services that were handed pink slips. Employment in Texas’ oil sector is close to levels not seen since the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2009. “We’re still losing big chunks of jobs with each passing month,” Karr Ingham, an Amarillo-based economist, told The Houston Chronicle.

But the damage to the oil industry’s workforce could be exactly why companies could face a skills shortage in the months and years ahead.

North Dakota had nearly 1,000 drilled but uncompleted wells as of March, and more companies are showing some signs that they might step up completions now that oil prices are above $50 per barrel. But they might find it difficult to ramp up the rate of completions if they cannot field enough workers. There are only about eight fracking crews left in the state, down from 45 two years ago, according to Reuters. Fracking crews are brought in to frack and complete wells for oil producers.

A recent survey of oil companies in the Bakken revealed concerns from the industry about the dismantling of fracking crews. “Even if prices went to $100 per barrel of oil, you don’t have any frack crews available to complete all the wells that need fracking,” one survey respondent told Hart Energy Market Intelligence.

One oil worker recently interviewed by Reuters illustrates the problem for places like the Bakken. John Ritchart, a worker that was responsible for heating water for a fracking crew, packed up and left North Dakota, moving back to Washington State after his pay was cut by 30 percent. “I can feed two people at home for a month for what it costs me to eat in Williston for a week,” Ritchart told Reuters. “I can’t afford to stay here.” The city of Williston, located in the heart of the Bakken, saw its population shrink by 16 percent since the summer of 2015.

At a recent industry conference in North Dakota, a top executive at Hess Corp. said that dismantling crews can be counterproductive. “If you just stop your entire operation, you send all your contractors home, you lose all your completion supervisors and you end up in a situation where you have to start all over again,” Gerbert Schoonman, Hess vice president in the Bakken, said at the Williston Basin Petroleum Conference in May.

Related: Why Did Natural Gas Prices Just Rise 25% In Two Weeks?

But the thousands of laid off engineers, technicians, geologists, and rig workers won’t sit around waiting for oil prices to rebound. Many are moving on to find work in other states and in other industries. In Texas, some laid off oil workers are increasingly finding work in the solar industry, which may not pay as much as working in the oil fields, but does offer more stability. One solar company in San Antonio told Marketplace that about a quarter of the resumes they receive come from workers who lost jobs in the oil and gas industry. The problem for solar companies is finding workers that are truly leaving oil and gas and not just waiting for a rebound.

As thousands of out-of-work oil and gas veterans find other jobs, there could be a shortage of skilled workers if drilling picks back up.

“There is going to be within the next, I think, six months to a year a real competitive war for the best and the brightest in this industry,” Les Csorba, a partner at the Houston office of Heidrick & Struggles, said in an interview with Houston Public Media. “You are seeing the baby boomer generation retiring, so you have an aging population within the energy sector…you are seeing an increased demand for technical competence and expertise.”

But the damage from two years of low oil prices is also doing its part. “Obviously we are going to see a number of defections from the energy industry. Young people that came into the business are now leaving because they are afraid of the cyclical nature of the industry,” Csorba said.

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

pra $50/barel LAGE @ harga minyak:

marketwatch: He was known to some as the Alan Greenspan of the oil world.

That is Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s powerful oil minister, who was fired from his post on Saturday. He will be replaced by Khalid-al Falih, the chairman of the country’s state oil company, Saudi Aramco.

“This is a historic one. [Al-Naimi] is the guy who for all intents and purposes has been the global oil market for the last 30 years,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group.

Al-Naimi gained global respect for turning the biggest oil cartel in the world, otherwise known as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), into a respectable organization, Flynn said in a telephone interview. And just as former Fed Chairman Greenspan would lower or raise interest rates when he thought the market needed it, al-Naimi would add or hold back on oil depending on the energy market’s needs, he added.

The move has reminded some who is ultimately in charge. While al-Falih, the new oil minister, now has one of the most powerful posts in the world, Flynn said there is no doubt that 36-year old Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is running the show in Saudi Arabia. “This guy is the new power broker in that country,” he said.

The dismissal of al-Naimi comes weeks after the Saudi government unveiled a plan to wean the country off its dependence on oil revenue, given the hit the country has taken from lower oil prices.

Read: Meet the 30-year old prince leading the charge to wean Saudis off oil

Some saw the writing on the wall for al-Naimi after major oil producers failed to reach a deal to freeze production in Doha, Qatar last month. While al-Naimi had previously said a deal was possible even if Iran didn’t take part, Prince Mohammed by all accounts put his foot down and no deal was done.

Worry about al-Falih? Flynn said al-Naimi survived as many of his buddies were fired under Prince Mohammed’s father, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. He said King Salman stopped short of axing al-Naimi because of the respect he commanded both in the country and abroad. It was clear, he said, that al-Naimi didn’t have the power to get a deal done at Doha.

But what some may not realize is that al-Falih also commands much respect in the oil world, said Jason Bordoff, a professor at Columbia University and founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy in New York. “Everyone who pays attention to Saudi Arabia and oil prices knows Khalid al-Falih is very widely regarded and respected as a capable leader of Saudi Aramco,” he said in a telephone interview.

Al-Falih has been working closely with the Prince Mohammed and seems to have the “confidence and trust of him,” said Bordoff, who served as White House energy adviser to President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013.

“Saudi Aramco is widely regarded as one of the most technically sophisticated oil companies in the world, and I’ve had some personal dealings with Khalid and many other people who have view him as an incredibly impressive and smart and capable person,” he said.

Before Saturday’s announcement, Al-Falih had been the country’s health minister, tackling a problematic area of the country’s economy, he said.

As for al-Naimi, no one should be that surprised at an 81-year old, who had spoken for years of retiring, is finally leaving that powerful oil post, he said.

Where now for oil prices? If there’s one thing that rattles the oil market, that’s any sort of surprise, and it’s fair to say the market may get the jitters over the news out of Saudi Arabia.

The Doha meeting created uncertainty for the oil market as well as questions over Saudi Arabia’s futures policies and whether it will rise to the occasion such as in the past, raising and lowering global oil production when it was needed for the rest of the world, said Flynn.

Now uncertainty in the wake of Saturday’s news could give oil prices a push in the near term, he said.

“My assumption is that we’re in a globally oversupplied market. The market might look at it two ways: more uncertainty is bullish overall, though in the short term there is this perception that Saudi Arabia may flood the market with oil,” said Flynn.

Just ahead of the failed Doha meeting, Prince Mohammed told Bloomberg in an interview that his country could boost its daily production number by as much as 20 million barrels if it invested in production capacity and by up to 11.5 million barrels a day right away. But Flynn said that given the country is seeing a strain on its finances because of weak oil prices, it can’t really afford to start ramping up production by more than a small amount.

He said it would be worth watching China closely as for how well the oil market deals with news of a new oil minister in Saudi Arabia. The Shanghai CompositeSHCOMP, -2.82%  fell nearly 3% on Friday on worries about looming bond defaults.

China crude imports in March were the second-highest on record, and any signs that the economy or stocks are stressed will lead the oil market to believe the country could curb that demand, said Flynn. But he’s ultimately optimistic about prices, provided the Chinese economy doesn’t fall apart.

If the Chinese economy does melt down again, he said the market will be talking about a glut, and if things stabilize in China, the conversations will be quite different, more along the balance side.

Bordoff said he doesn’t see much reaction coming from the oil market, though he agrees the changing of the guard could drive prices up in the short term.

“We’ll be watching the next 24 to 48 hours to see if any other news comes out. I don’t think that this was that unexpected. I don’t think people will view it as any indication that large-scale changes are imminent in Saudi oil policy,” he said.

West Texas Intermediate futures CLM6, +0.54%  finished last week down 2.7%, while Brent crude LCON6, +0.60% the global oil benchmark, slid 4.2%. Oil gained on Friday, though as news of wildfires in an oil-rich region of Canada and disruptions to an offshore oil facility in Nigeria outweighed a disappointing U.S. jobs report.

 

la times: IT would be hard to exaggerate the importance of oil in Saudi Arabia. So when an influential young prince started talking this year about selling shares in the state-owned oil company and weaning the economy off its dependence on petrodollars, many were skeptical both inside and outside the conservative kingdom.

This week, the world got a closer look at what the ruling Saud family has in mind.

In an interview with Saudi-owned broadcaster Al Arabiya, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman outlined a sweeping plan dubbed “Saudi Vision 2030.” It includes listing for sale less than 5% of the Saudi Arabian Oil Co., building the world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund, reducing government subsidies and developing sectors such as tourism and mining.

With these steps, the prince said, “I think that if oil stopped in 2020, we can live.”

The bold assertion signaled a growing urgency among the country’s leaders to chart a new course for the world’s largest exporter of crude in an era when vast stores of petroleum reserves are no longer a guarantee of flush government coffers.

Saudi Arabian officials have long recognized that the kingdom’s traditional reliance on petroleum products for 90% of state revenues is not sustainable. The population is growing, some 70% of working Saudis are employed by the government and the private sector depends heavily on government spending.

Economic policymakers have been speaking about diversifying for decades. But when oil prices were high, there was little pressure to act.

“It’s now urgent because of the low oil price,” said Jane Kinninmont, a Middle East scholar at the Chatham House think tank in London.

When oil prices fell from around $100 a barrel in mid-2014 to less than half that last year, it pushed Saudi Arabia into an economic crunch that saw the government burn through some $116 billion in foreign-exchange reserves and post a budget deficit of $98 billion.

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At the same time, Kinninmont said, “You have now someone at the top of royal family decision-making who is very young, who buys into the idea that the private sector needs to be an engine of growth and employment and who is staring the end of the oil era in the face.”

Mohammed, King Salman’s son and second in line to the Saudi throne, has been entrusted with unusual power for someone in his early 30s. As defense minister, he oversees the kingdom’s costly war in neighboring Yemen and other efforts to counter the influence of archrival Iran in the region. He also serves as chief of the royal court and chairs a council responsible for the kingdom’s economic policy. Western diplomats and some media have dubbed him “Mr. Everything.”

In meetings with diplomats and journalists, Mohammed has been unusually candid about the challenges facing the kingdom. Saudi Arabia has an “addiction to oil” that has hurt development in other sectors, he told Al Arabiya in the interview that aired Monday.

Jamal Khashoggi, a leading Saudi journalist who was invited to a gathering hosted by the prince that day, said Mohammed is convinced that new technologies and the pressures of climate change will make oil obsolete before the kingdom runs out of reserves.

“He is predicting that in 20 to 30 years, the oil will be pushed out,” Khashoggi said.

The monarchy has used the kingdom’s oil wealth to heap benefits on the country’s 21 million citizens, including cheap energy and free education and healthcare. The low price of oil — something to which Saudi Arabia contributed by refusing to limit output unless rival producers follow suit — poses a threat to the unwritten social contract that underpins the Saud family’s absolute rule.

At the end of last year, the government took the difficult steps of cutting spending and raising the domestic price of water, electricity and fuel. New taxes and fees on undeveloped land, sugary drinks and luxury goods also have been announced.

“The steps are impressive for their range and ambition — unprecedented really in a country where taxation has been politically taboo for decades,” said Steffen Hertog, an associate professor at the London School of Economics who studies Saudi Arabia. But he said it would take some creative accounting to achieve in so short a time frame the ambitious targets approved Monday by the cabinet.

NEWSLETTER: Get the day’s top headlines from Times Editor Davan Maharaj >>

Some observers have suggested that the royal family may be attempting to negotiate a new deal with its citizens.

Steps have been taken to curb the powers of the religious police, who are charged with enforcing the kingdom’s ultra-conservative interpretation of Islam. There has been talk of bringing greater transparency to the country’s economic affairs — one of the main benefits of the initial public offering in the national oil giant Aramco, according to Mohammed. He also has spoken about issuing green cards for expatriates, providing new sport and leisure options for Saudi youth and bringing more women into the workplace.

But others say it is too soon to talk about a new social contract. Khashoggi for one believes the government is attempting to shore up the arrangement it already has.

“There is no mention of democracy,” he noted.

Some resistance to the plan appears inevitable. The sudden rise in water rates, along with costly billing mistakes, already generated a social media backlash. This month, the minister in charge of water and energy was removed from office, although the new prices remained in effect.

Mohammed told his interviewer Monday that there were plans afoot to further “rationalize” subsidies but said the cuts would apply only to the 70% of the population with above-average incomes — “such as me and you.”

Turki al-Dakhil, Al Arabiya’s general manager, took issue with that, telling the prince, “You have your own category. I am one of the people who expect to receive subsidies.”

“Do not let me say on television what you have, Turki!” the prince retorted, according to a translation provided by Al Arabiya.

The prince offered few details about how the government proposes to implement its plan. Those will come later, he told reporters in the Saudi capital, Riyadh.

Previous government attempts to diversify the economy and encourage private enterprise have yielded some notable failures, including a $10-billion project to build a glitzy financial district in Riyadh that failed to attract many of the banks and other high-end clients it was intended to house. The government is now reportedly proposing to convert parts of the development, launched in 2006, into housing, hotels and commercial establishments.

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kontan: Keyakinan Harga minyak dunia akan segera menembus US$ 60 per barel, dengan berani disampaikan Menteri Energi Arab Saudi yang baru, Khalid Al Falih dalam wawancara eksklusifnya dengan CNNMoney. Pernyataan itu disampaikannya seusai   penutupan kongres OPEC di Wina.

Dalam pertemuan tersebut, Arab Saudi mengajukan usulan penerapan kuota dan pembatasan produksi minyak.  Namun, organisasi pengekspor minyak itu memutuskan untuk menolak penetapan kuota produksi. (Baca: OPEC menolak pembatasan produksi minyak)

“Hal yang harus dilakukan sekarang adalah terus memantau pasar dan membiarkan pasar bekerja. Ini yang berlangsung dalam mendukung kami sekarang,” kata Al Falih, terkait penurunan produksi oleh non-OPEC dan kenaikan harga minyak.

Al Falih, menyatakan Harga minyak dunia sangat mungkin menembus US$ 60 per barel pada akhir tahun ini. Bahkan, harga minyak bisa menanjak lebih tinggi lagi di 2017.

Dia menyatakan, pasokan dan permintaan telah ‘bertemu’ dan harga minyak telah terangkat oleh pembatasan pasokan.

Gangguan pasokan di Nigeria, Kanada dan Columbia baru-baru ini telah menyokong penguatan  harga minyak menembus US$ 50 per barel. Harga ini naik hampir dua kali lipat dari harganya pada Februari 2016.

Meningkatnya harga minyak bakal membuat para pengendara di Amerika menjerit. Maklum saja, harga minyak yang naik tinggi telah mengangkat harga bensin menjadi US$ 2,32 per galon. Padahal Februari lalu harga bensin masih US$ 1,7 per galon.

Namun Al Falih mengingatkan, bahwa Harga minyak dunia US$ 50 belum cukup  menarik bagi investasi untuk menjaga ladang minyak tua. Menteri Energi Arab Saudi ini mengkhawatirkan  potensi penurunan pasokan yang akan memicu lonjakan harga yang ‘untuk jangka panjang justru kontra-produktif terhadap minyak.”

Arab Saudi bertentangan dengan Iran, sekutu lama OPEC yang menggenjot produksi minyaknya ke level sebelum terkena sanksi ekonomi, meskipun  pasokan minyaknya cukup banyak.

Al Falih menegaskan kembali sikap Saudi bahwa Iran harus menjadi bagian dari setiap perjanjian OPEC ke depan untuk menjaga volume produksi. “Jika semua orang berhenti berproduksi, Iran juga harus melakukannya seperti orang lain,” ujarnya.

Namun, sikap Al Falih terhadap Iran tampaknya lebih lunak  dibanding  pendahulunya, Ali al-Naimi yang  puluhan tahun menjadi Menteri Energi Arab Saudi.

Al Falih mengakui  bahwa  “setiap negara memiliki hak dan berdaulat untuk mengelola produksi minyaknya sendiri.”  Dia bahkan menyebut  Iran “anggota kunci ” OPEC,  dan berjanji bahwa Arab Saudi akan “bekerja sama dengan semua negara anggota .”

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Wina – Organisasi Negara-negara Pengekspor Minyak (OPEC) kembali gagal menetapkan kuota produksi minyak setelah melakukan pertemuan yang diadakan di Wina, Kamis (2/6/2016), seorang pejabat OPEC mengumumkan.

Setelah pertemuan yang berlangsung empat jam, para menteri minyak OPEC gagal menyepakati sebuah batas atau pagu produksi, dan memutuskan untuk bertemu lagi di Wina pada 30 November.

Ini adalah kali kedua OPEC telah gagal untuk menentukan pagu produksi pada konferensi di Wina, setelah pertemuan musim dingin lalu.

Ini bisa menjadi tanda bahwa kesenjangan di antara anggota kartel semakin lebih lebar atas strategi pasar mereka.

Menurut laporan media, Iran ingin pagu produksi minyaknya mencapai tingkat pra-sanksi, sementara negara-negara anggota lainnya berpegang pada kuota yang berbeda, yang Arab Saudi tidak setuju.

“Tanpa kuota negara, OPEC tidak bisa mengendalikan apa-apa,” ungkap Menteri Perminyakan Iran Bijan Zanganeh kepada wartawan, yang mengatakan kuota pra-sanksi — 14,5 persen dari produksi umum OPEC — adalah adil untuk Teheran.

Produksi minyak Iran saat ini 3,56 juta barel per hari mendekati produksi pra-sanksi 3,70 juta barel per hari.

Arab Saudi, produsen minyak terkemuka di OPEC, akan melanjutkan kebijakan strategi harga minyak rendah, kata para analis.

OPEC menghasilkan sekitar 32,5 juta barel minyak per hari, 2,5 juta barel lebih tinggi dari pagu yang ditetapkan musim panas lalu di Wina.

“Sejak pertemuan terakhir pada Desember 2015, harga minyak mentah telah meningkat lebih dari 80 persen,” kata OPEC dalam siaran persnya, “Ini merupakan bukti, fakta bahwa pasar sedang bergerak melalui proses penyeimbangan,” kata kartel minyak.

OPEC percaya pertumbuhan permintaan tetap relatif sehat mempertimbangkan tantangan dan perkembangan ekonomi baru-baru ini.

Dalam situasi seperti itu, kesepakatan produksi akan menjadi sulit dalam OPEC dan juga dengan produsen-produsen minyak non-OPEC.

Jason Schenker, presiden dan kepala ekonom dari perusahaan riset pasar Prestige Economics, mengatakan strategi OPEC dan harga minyak rendah telah mempengaruhi produksi minyak AS, membuat banyak perusahaan memangkas posisi-posisi pekerjaan dan mendapatkan keuntungan yang berkurang.

Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) memperkirakan pasokan minyak melebihi permintaan rata-rata 1,3 juta barel per hari dalam enam bulan pertama 2016.

Sebelum pertemuan itu, harga minyak dunia naik menjadi sekitar 50 dolar AS per barel.

Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo dari Nigeria diangkat sebagai sekretaris jenderal baru organisasi tersebut dan akan mulai menjabat pada 1 Agustus.

http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2300288/opec-gagal-lagi-tetapkan-kuota-produksi-minyak
Sumber : INILAH.COM

new-chin-year-dragon-02

Singapore, June 3, 2016 (AFP)
Oil prices held steady in Asian trading on Friday after a fall in US crude inventories offset OPEC’s decision to shun production caps.

The commodity initially fell on Thursday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ended its meeting in Vienna with no agreement, as expected, to lower or cap output despite a global supply glut.

However, it rebounded after a US Department of Energy report showed commercial crude inventories sank by 1.4 million barrels last week, indicating a pick-up in demand in the world’s top crude consumer.

At about 0230 GMT, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for delivery in July was two cents up at $49.19 a barrel while Brent for August was four cents higher at $50.08.

A final statement from OPEC said that since its December meeting “crude oil prices have risen by more than 80 percent, supply and demand is converging and oil and producer stock levels in the OECD (industrial economies) have recently shown moderation”.

It added: “This is testament to the fact that the market is moving through the balancing process.”

IG Markets analyst Bernard Aw told AFP that OPEC’s failure to agree a new ceiling had been priced in by the market.

“The OPEC meeting was of not much surprise and was a non-event,” he said.

“For now prices are still sideways and still have that big $50 hurdle to clear.”

Traditionally OPEC, which pumps around a third of the world’s oil, has cut production to boost prices.

But in the most recent prolonged drop, tumbling from more than $100 in mid-2014 to close to $25 in January, OPEC — driven by Saudi Arabia — has changed tack, keeping oil flowing to maintain market share and squeeze competitors.

Aw said a continued fall in US inventories, coupled with rising demand from China and India, could lead to a “fundamental change in supply and demand”.

“The report shows that the US production and stockpiling is on the decline. That helps to ease the oversupply issue and is positive for oil prices,” he added.

Crude prices briefly topped $50 last week for the first time this year as short-term production disruptions in Canada and Nigeria eased concerns about global supplies.

nozzle

Singapore, May 26, 2016 (AFP)
Brent crude rose past $50 a barrel for the first time this year on Thursday, after a fall in US inventories that added to global disruptions which have put a dent in a chronic oversupply.

Prices nosedived from above $100 a barrel two years ago to around $27 in early 2016 due to a massive glut — badly hurting producing nations but meaning lower prices at the pump for consumers.

However the market has rebounded on the back of disrupted production in Canada due to wildfires, outages in Venezuela, and unrest affecting energy infrastructure in Nigeria — Africa’s biggest oil exporter.

Both main contracts had been edging close to $50 for the last fortnight but a strong US dollar curtailed gains, as a firmer greenback makes the dollar-priced commodity more expensive, hampering demand.

The surge in Asian trade came after the US Department of Energy said Wednesday that US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels in the week to May 20.

Canada’s central bank also announced that the fires in its western provinces, which a major supplier of crude to the US market, would impact the country’s economic output numbers.

At 0715 GMT, Brent, the European standard, was up 34 cents at $50.08 a barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate was not far behind, trading 28 cents higher at $49.84.

“News about the US inventory, coupled with Canada’s announcement gave prices the boost it needed to push past the $50 mark,” CMC Markets trader Alex Wijaya told AFP.

– Respite for producers? –

Traders will now be watching to see if the price can be sustained despite the strong US dollar.

Shailaja Nair, associate editorial director at global energy information provider Platts, told AFP it also remains to be seen whether oil producers will find respite after prices breached the $50 mark.

“There’s a little bit of demand but not like suddenly we’ve found a huge pocket of demand, we are not seeing that. Whether it will stay above $50 or not, that is going to tell us whether the producers can breathe a sigh of relief,” she said.

Traders are eyeing a June 2 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna where it is hoped a deal on reducing production can be reached.

But OPEC member Iran, which only returned to world markets in January after the lifting of Western sanctions linked to its nuclear programme, has so far refused to curb production.

Tehran’s stance appeared to reinforce market doubts that OPEC will take any firm action to curb oversupply.

Talks in Doha in April involving OPEC members and other major producers such as Russia failed to reach a deal to cap production.

Other analysts are also sceptical about how long the current prices will hold.

“The remarkable over 80 percent rally in oil since earlier this year may have been overdone, as the underlying macro conditions have not changed proportionally,” IG Markets analyst Bernard Aw said in a client note.

“This suggested that speculative trades have driven up the price these months, and may not be sustainable.”

new-chin-year-dragon-02

Singapore, May 25, 2016 (AFP)
Oil prices edged towards $50 a barrel in Asia Wednesday after a larger-than-expected dip in US stockpiles resulting from wildfires that have disrupted oil production in Canada.

The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported that crude inventories dropped by 5.14 million barrels last week, Bloomberg News reported. Data from the Energy Information Administration due later Wednesday are likely to confirm the fall in supplies.

There have been high expectations of a decline in stockpiles because of wildfires in western provinces of Canada, the biggest supplier of crude to the US market.

“Estimates suggested that output was reduced by over a million barrels per day. This is expected to be reflected when the US Department of Energy releases crude inventories tonight as the market eyes US$50 per barrel,” CMC Markets client services executive Alex Furber wrote in a note.

At about 0300 GMT, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for July delivery was up 62 cents, or 1.28 percent, at $49.24 a barrel after closing at a seven-month high in New York.

European benchmark Brent North Sea oil was up 55 cents, or 1.13 percent, at $49.16 a barrel.

Crude prices have rebounded since plunging to near 13-year lows below $30 a barrel in February amid abundant global supplies. But they are still well short of peaks of more than $100 reached in June 2014.

There are concerns that a strong dollar — bolstered by talk of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates as soon as June — and Canadian producers coming back online may curb gains.

“Prices have been weighed down by a strong dollar, and glut concerns as production from top exporters increases,” Singapore’s UOB Bank wrote in a note to clients.

A stronger US dollar makes dollar-priced commodities like oil more expensive, curtailing demand.

Major exporter Iran has also vowed to keep up oil production after the lifting of Western sanctions in January.

Markets are now eyeing a June 2 OPEC meeting in Vienna where it is hoped a deal on reducing production can be reached.

spiral

LONDON kontan. Minyak terus naik ke level intraday tertinggi dalam enam bulan seiring susutnya pasokan dunia mulai dari Amerika Serikat (AS), Kanada, dan Nigeria. Membantu mengurangi surplus pasokan global.

Minyak jenis West Texas Intermediate (WTI) pengiriman Juni naik sebanyak 69 sen, atau 1,5 %, ke US$ 46,92 per barel, tertinggi sejak 4 November di New York Mercantile Exchange, Kamis (12/5).

Kontrak minyak ini di US$ 46,78 pada 01:09 waktu sore London. Total volume perdagangan sekitar 26 % di atas 100-hari rata-rata. Harga minyak telah naik lebih dari 70 % dari level terendah Februari.

Minyak jenis Brent untuk pengiriman Juli naik 36 sen ke level US$ 47,96 per barel di ICE Futures Europe exchange yang berbasis di London setelah naik 9,1 % dua sesi sebelumnya. Kontrak minyak ini naik US$ 2,08 ke US$ 47,60 pada hari Rabu.

Sebelumnya, persediaan minyak AS turun 3,4 juta barel pekan lalu, data pemerintah menunjukkan Rabu (11/5). Nigeria mengatakan militan telah menahan produksi minyak negara itu sekitar 30 %.

Alhasil, surplus global pada semester pertama tahun ini lebih kecil dari perkiraan sebelumnya karena permintaan yang kuat di India dan negara-negara berkembang lainnya, kata Badan Energi Internasional.

JAKARTA kontan. Suhu minyak terus memanas dalam kurun waktu sebulan ini. Bahkan, minyak bersiap untuk kenaikan bulanan terbesar dalam satu tahun menyusul penurunan produksi minyak Amerika Serikat (AS) ke level terendah sejak Oktober 2014.

Minyak berjangka naik sekitar 21 % dalam bulan April ini di New York, ditetapkan sebagai kenaikan bulanan ketiga dan kenaikan terbesar sejak April 2015.

Minyak mentah West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman Juni naik sebanyak 60 sen menjadi US$ 46,63 per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange dan berada di US$ 46,50 pada pukul 01:37 sore waktu London, Jumat (30/4).

Kontrak WTI naik 70 sen menjadi US$ 46,03 pada hari Kamis (28/4), penutupan tertinggi sejak 4 November.

Sedangkan, minyak Brent untuk pengiriman Juni naik sebanyak 36 sen, atau 0,8 %, ke US$ 48,50 per barel di ICE Futures Europe exchange yang berbasis di London. Kontrak Brent berakhir hari Jumat ini. Kontrak teraktif bulan Juli naik 34 sen menjadi US$ 48,11.

Analis PT SoeGee Futures, Nizar Hilmy mengatakan, harga minyak mencapai level tertinggi sejak November 2015 setelah The Fed mempertahankan suku bunga di level 0,5%. “Tidak ada isyarat kenaikan suku bunga dalam waktu dekat meski peluang masih terbuka,” papar Nizar.

Sementara, Agus Chandra, Research and Analyst PT Monex Investindo Futures, mengatakan, harga minyak terangkat oleh dua faktor, yakni data stok minyak AS menyusut dan pelemahan dollar AS.

Energy Information Administration (EIA) merilis, stok minyak AS pekan lalu bertambah 2 juta barel atau pertumbuhan terendah sejak Oktober 2014. Fokus pelaku pasar selanjutnya pada pertemuan produsen minyak yang tergabung dalam OPEC Juni nanti.

Terus merangkaknya harga minyak ke level di atas US$ 45 per barel semakin membenarkan prediksi bahwa minyak akan pulih dari kemerosotan terburuk. Namun, sebagian lainnya justru bernada sumbang yang meyakini pasar akan jatuh dalam perangkap yang sama seperti tahun lalu.

Dejavu

Mengutip dari Bloomberg, Commerzbank AG, BNP Paribas SA, dan UBS Group AS menyebutkan ada rasa déjà vu, kenaikan minyak sekitar 70% dari level terendah kurun waktu 12 tahun pada Januari menyerupai pemulihan minyak saat ini dengan tahun lalu.

BNP dan UBS pun memperingatkan harga minyak akan kembali tenggelam ke level US$ 30 per barel dalam beberapa pekan ke depan. “Ada pararel berbahaya untuk 2015,” kata Eugen Weinberg, kepala riset komoditas di Commerzbank.

Di 2015, minyak jenis Brent naik 45% terhitung dari Januari sampai Mei sehingga hampir sentuh level US$ 68. Dipicu penurunan cepat output minyak AS karena menyusutnya operasional rig.

Namun, reli minyak berbalik arah saat produksi minyak terus meningkat, memuncak sampai 9.610.000 barel per hari pada Juni 2015. Dan kembali, berkurangnya rig yang aktif melakukan pengeboran mengambil jalannya sehingga produksi minyak AS merosot ke 8,95 juta barel per hari pada 15 April lalu.

Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets LLC menyebut pemulihan saat ini memiliki kesejajaran sekali dengan “reli palsu” dari tahun lalu yang “menahan pemulihan” dengan mempertahankan produksi biaya tinggi.

OPEC dan AS

Sejak Juni 2014, harga minyak dunia terus merosot tajam. Banyak yang menyebutnya sebagai dampak dari perang pasar antara negara-negara Organisasi Negara Pengekspor Minyak (OPEC) dengan AS. OPEC yang dimotori Arab Saudi—melihat minyak serpih (shale oil) yang diproduksi perusahaan-perusahaan minyak AS telah menjadi ancaman bagi mereka.

Booming produksi shale oil AS menyebabkan pasokan minyak dunia melimpah. Akibatnya, harga komoditas ini di pasar turun sangat tajam, lalu menggerus pendapatan negara-negara yang selama ini mengandalkan pada minyak, termasuk negara anggota OPEC.

Di tengah penurunan harga minyak itu, Saudi mengajak negara-negara anggota OPEC untuk memerangi booming shale oil AS. Caranya, produksi minyak OPEC jangan dipangkas sehingga minyak banjir di pasar dan harga menjadi rendah. Tujuannya, agar produsen minyak AS hanya memperoleh keuntungan kecil dari harga minyak.

Sebenarnya, beberapa negara anggota OPEC seperti Venezuela, Iran, dan Aljazair mengusulkan pemangkasan produksi agar harga minyak kembali naik. Hanya saja, karena Saudi memiliki kekuatan yang sangat besar di OPEC, akhirnya usulan tiga negara tersebut kalah. Asal tahu saja, Saudi Aramco, yang 100% sahamnya dimiliki Pemerintah Saudi, setiap hari mampu memproduksi minyak sebanyak 12 juta barel per hari.

Saudi memang memiliki kekuatan besar dalam perang pasar minyak ini, karena biaya produksi minyaknya cukup rendah, yakni hanya US$ 10-US$ 17 per barel. Sedangkan biaya produksi shale oil AS mencapai US$ 70-US$ 77 barel per hari. Dengan harga minyak saat ini, Saudi masih memperoleh keuntungan, sebaliknya AS.

Kembali turun

Terbukti, minyak pun masih dibayangi volatile yang cukup tinggi. Minyak WTI untuk pengiriman Juni turun 46 sen, atau 1 %, ke US$ 45,57 per barel pukul 12:16 waktu New York Mercantile Exchange, Jumat (29/4). Kontrak tersebut menyentuh US$ 46,78 sebelumnya, tertinggi sejak 4 November

Sedangkan, minyak Brent untuk pengiriman Juni turun 42 sen, atau 0,9 %, ke US$ 47,72 per barel di ICE Futures Europe exchange yang berbasis di London. Kontrak berakhir Jumat. Kontrak teraktif bulan Juli  turun 70 sen menjadi US$ 47,07.

Survei Bloomberg menunjukkan ada peningkatan produksi minyak Organisasi Negara Pengekspor Minyak (OPEC) pada April ini. Produksi naik sekitar 484.000 barel menjadi 33,21 juta barel per hari di mana menyentuh angka produksi saham tahun 1989.

Sepertinya, minyak masih menuju kenaikan bulanan terbesar dalam satu tahun karena dollar tumbang dan turunnya produksi minyak AS. “Perkiraan produksi OPEC menekan pasar,” kata John Kilduff, mitra di Again Capital LLC, sebuah hedge fund New York berfokus pada energi.

Iran bisa jadi menjadi bandul pemberat bagi minyak tahun 2016 ini. Menyusul pencabutan sanksi  pada Januari lalu sebagai imbalan pembatasan nuklir. Produksi minyak Iran naik 300.000 barel per hari menjadi 3,5 juta barel per hari, merupakan level tertinggi sejak Desember 2011.

Dengan kata lain, tampaknya minyak akan susah kembali ke level tertingginya US$ 100 per barel.

doraemon

New York, April 27, 2016 (AFP)
Oil prices surged to 2016 peaks for the second straight day Wednesday after the Federal Reserve appeared more optimistic in its outlook for the global economy.

Prices fell in early trade after the weekly US Energy Department report showed US crude stockpiles jumped by two million barrels last week, slightly more than analysts expected.

“We got a build in crude stocks… which seemed to bring some sellers out of the woods,” said Gene McGillian of Tradition Energy.

But the market rallied late in the session following the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement. As expected the Fed left interest rates unchanged, but it also appeared less concerned than a month ago about global conditions, opening the door a crack to a rate hike in June.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in June rose $1.29 to $45.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, closing for the second straight day at its highest level since November.

In London, Brent North Sea for June delivery climbed $1.44 to $47.18 a barrel, also a peak last seen in November.

“The market continues to focus on expectations we’ll see declining North American production levels and increasing demand around the globe,” McGillian said.

The oil market’s recent trend higher is mainly being driven by technical factors, said Matt Smith of ClipperData.

“The breaking of resistance lines has given prices momentum to push higher from here. It’s like a snowball gathering momentum,” he said.

burs-jdy/vs/pmh

nozzle

By
Posted on Tue, 26 April 2016 21:13 | 0

Oil speculators are growing more confident that prices are gaining ground on the back of rising demand and shrinking supply.

U.S. gasoline demand is at a record high for this time of year, with the four-weekconsumption rate for gasoline above 9.3 million barrels per day (mb/d). That is important because the summer months typically see higher consumption than in the spring, so demand could continue to rise.

(Click to enlarge)

At the same time, production is falling. Weekly EIA data shows that output hasdeclined to 8.95 mb/d, sharply down from a peak of nearly 9.7 mb/d in April 2015.

Related: Oil Up As Quarterly Earnings Season Kicks Off

(Click to enlarge)

The converging of supply and demand has speculators increasing their bullish bets on crude oil. Net-long positions for the week ending on April 19 rose to their highest level since May 2015. Short positions fell for the week and long positions jumped. “Investors are looking for larger exposure to crude oil and showing a continuing willingness to buy on the dips,” Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective, told Bloomberg.

Related: Why The Saudi Aramco IPO Will Not Be Enough

Not everyone is convinced. A group of investment banks cautioned not to get too excited about the rally. Barclays said in a report on Monday that it is “not yet convinced that prices will remain here or go even higher.” Morgan Stanley said the rally had more to do with macro factors as well as speculators trying to profit. There are some temporary production outages in several OPEC countries that could be resolved in the coming months, bringing some supply back to the market. The outage in Kuwait from a workers strike was short-lived, and the Kuwait state-owned oil company hopes to boost production to above 3 mb/d by June. Iran has also added around 1 mb/d to production since January when western sanctions were removed.

Speculators could be overextending themselves. Any time there is a run up in bullish bets, the chances that long positions could start to be trimmed rises. Speculators could realize that the rally has run out of steam and then decide to pocket their profits. The liquidation could then spark a correction, forcing prices back down. As Morgan Stanley put it, “a macro unwind could cause severe selling given positioning and the nature of the players in this rally.”

The potential for a correction is mirrored by the fact that the fundamentals still look rather grim, with possible bearish indicators looming on the horizon. Oil storage levels set a new record last week at 538 million barrels in the United States and many analysts expect that figure has room to grow. “Still-elevated inventory levels, the return of some disrupted supply, further boosts to Saudi and Iranian supply, and increased non-OECD product exports all have the potential to move prices lower over the next several months, especially if broader macro sentiment shifts,” Barclays wrote.

Related: China Stockpiling Oil At Highest Rate In Over A Decade

Then there is the possibility that some U.S. shale companies bring production back online as oil prices inch higher. The backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells, colloquially known as the “fracklog,” could start to be worked through as they become profitable again. “Once we start approaching $45 and above, the risk of a much sharper pullback starts to increase as a lot of shale becomes profitable again,” Angus Nicholson, an analyst at IG in Melbourne, told Bloomberg. “It’ll bring more supply back into the market. This happened last year when a swathe of output hit the market after a price gain and subsequently led to oil dropping to record lows.” There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the exact price level that starts to trigger completions, and some analysts believe the price threshold could be much higher. Still, the fracklog will weigh on any price rally.

Oil companies themselves are not convinced that prices could move higher. The Wall Street Journal reported on several producers that have decided to lock in some of their production at hedged prices, foreclosing the opportunity to profit if prices rise but protecting themselves from another downturn. Energen Corp., for example, locked in around half of its 2016 production at about $45 per barrel recently, even though it spurned the chance to hedge its output last year as it waited for a stronger rebound. The story is the same for EV Energy Partners, a company that recently secured hedges at $40 per barrel even though a year ago it refused to do so at $50 per barrel. A range of other companies are following suit. Similarly, airlines are stepping up their hedges, locking in oil at around $40 per barrel.

As usual, the oil markets are rife with confusion and uncertainty. The longer-term looks a little clearer – supply is falling and demand is rising. The market will have to balance out; the only debate is over how quickly that happens. In the short-term, though, there is no consensus on whether prices move up or down.

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

gifi

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Harga minyak mentah ditutup pada level tertinggi dalam lebih dari lima bulan terakhir di tengah tanda-tanda bahwa kelebihan pasokan global semakin berkurang.

Harga minyak West Texas Intermediate untuk pengiriman Juni naik US$1,40 ke US$44,04 per barel. Sedangkan harga minyak Brent untuk pengiriman Juni naik US$1,26 atau 2,8% ke US$45,74 per bare pada penutupan perdagangan Selasa atau Rabu pagi WIBl.

“Sentimen pasar terus membaik. Banyak orang yang yakin bahwa harga telah menyentuh level terendah, dan pasar akan menyeimbangkan harga akhir tahun ini,” kata Tim Evans dari Citi Futures Perspective kepada Bloomberg.

Minyak mentah telah kembali pulih setelah merosot ke level terendah sejak 2003 pada bulan Februari di tengah tanda-tanda kelebihan pasokan global akan berkurang karena produksi minyak AS berkurang. American Petroleum Institute menyatakan pasokan minyak mentah AS kemungkinan turun 1,07 juta barel pekan lalu.

Berdasarkan survei Bloomberg sebelum laporan Badan Informasi Energi AS, persediaan minyak mentah AS diperkirakan akan meningkat sebanyak 1,75 juta barel minggu lalu.

Pasokan minyak mentah AS diperkirakan akan meningkat di atas 540 juta barel untuk pertama kalinya sejak 1929. Stok bensin diperkirakan turun 1 juta barel.

Harga bensin untuk pengiriman Mei naik 3,5% ke US1.566 per galon, tertinggi sejak 31 Agustus. Sementara itu, harga solar untuk pengiriman Mei naik 3,3% ke US1,3325 per galon.

 nozzle

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Harga minyak mentah turun dari level tertinggi dalam hampir lima bulan terakhir di tengah meningkatnya stok minyak mentah AS dan spekulasi bahwa negara produsen tidak akan menyepakati pemekuan produksi.

Harga minyak West Texas Intermediate untuk pengiriman Juni turun US$1 ke posisi US$43,18 per barel. Sementara itu, minyak mentah Brent untuk pengiriman Juni turun US$1,27, atau 2,8% ke level US$44,53 per barel.

“Pasar sedang mengatur napas setelah reli yang panjang, AS memiliki kelebihan cadangan minyak mentah yang sangat besar,” kata Gene McGillian, analis senior dan broker di Tradition Energy seperti yang dikutip dari Bloomberg, Kamis (21/4/2016).

Menurut badan informasi energi AS (EIA), pasokan minyak mentah naik menjadi 538,6 juta barel minggu lalu, tertinggi sejak 1930. Harga minyak melonjak pada hari Rabu setelah EIA menyatakan produksi minyak mentah AS turun ke level terendah dalam 18 bulan terakhir.

Produksi minyak Kuwait hampir kembali normal satu hari setelah aksi mogok pekerja berakhir. Produsen terbesar ke-4 di OPEC ini meningkatkan produksi menjadi 2,9 juta barel per hari pada hari Kamis, Plt. Menteri Perminyakan Anas Al-Saleh mengatakan dalam sebuah surat yang diposting di akun Twitter Kuwait Petroleum Corp.

marketwatch:

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Non-OPEC oil production falling more sharply than expected

Published: Apr 13, 2016 8:26 p.m. ET

Drop could be bullish for oil prices

Bloomberg News

By

BENOIT FAUCON

OPEC said global oil production outside the cartel is falling more sharply than expected, as producers continue to retrench almost two years after crude prices started what has been its sharp descent.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, a group of some of the world’s biggest producers, on Wednesday forecast that a long-expected contraction in non-OPEC oil supply was shaping up to be steeper than expected. In March, it forecast non-OPEC output would fall by 700,000 barrels a day this year. It is now estimating that drop will be 730,000 barrels a day.

The downgrade was due to lower expectations for oil production from China’s onshore mature fields and further declines in the U.S. and the U.K., where projects have been deferred because of lower oil prices.

The new estimate doesn’t represent a dramatic revision to the group’s non-OPEC output expectations. But oil traders have been fixated recently on how today’s lower prices are affecting output. Many producers have been retrenching sharply, leading to growing expectations of a potentially sharp cutback in global supply that could help balance markets and buoy prices.

While the steeper-than-expected drop could be bullish for oil prices, OPEC also warned of rising uncertainties over global oil demand. It also said Iran is fast ramping up its output.

 

nozzle

New York, March 2, 2016 (AFP)
Oil prices edged higher Wednesday as speculation of a potential producer deal to limit output offset a jump in US petroleum inventories.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for April delivery rose 26 cents to $34.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In London, Brent North Sea crude for May delivery added 12 cents at $36.93 a barrel.

US commercial inventories of crude oil rose a lofty 10.4 million barrels for the week ending February 26, according to data released by the Department of Energy.

Inventories of distillate oil, which includes home heating oil, also rose sharply. On the flipside, the data showed that US oil production fell for the 16th straight week.

The EIA figures were decidedly bearish, there’s no doubt about it,” said Andy Lipow of consultancy Lipow Oil Associates.

But analysts said prices were lifted by talk among producers of a plan to coordinate a limit to output. Saudi Arabia, Russia and others have said they would abid by such a cap if other producers follow suit.

Tim Evans, analyst at Citi Futures, said the oil market gained “apparent support from a Venezuelan statement promising a meeting between 15 or more oil producers ‘soon.‘”

Lipow also cited a report that Saudi Arabia had sought international loans of $10 billion as a supporting factor in prices.

“I think the market interpreted that as they’re under such financial stress” that they would soon support action by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut production.

burs-jmb/pmh

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FORTUNE: A healthy economy seems more likely.

For an increasing number of economists, crashing oil prices and sliding financial markets are a sure sign of bad times to come.

But the bears have got it all wrong, says Deutsche Bank’s chief international economist—a recession isn’t coming.

The problem is that the challenges in the energy sector are not spilling over to the broader economy and the macro data is not deteriorating,” Torsten Slok wrote in a Tuesday note.

Many bearish economists have overemphasized the effects of the markets and the energy sector, while underestimating other indicators such as the U.S.’s strong employment data, consumer spending, and consumer loans, Slok says.

“The reason why we are seeing no signs of a slowdown in bank lending or consumer borrowing is likely that the losses in the energy sector are not located inside the banks but instead among investors globally,” he wrote.

 

Slok pointed out that the U.S. economy is far more resilient than the sloping markets suggest. The Commerce Department reported strong consumer spending for January, with core retail sales increasing 0.3% from a month earlier.

Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported lower-than-expected job growth for January, unemployment dipped to its lowest point since February 2008 as average hourly earnings surged from a month earlier.

“I think the bears will soon realize that the negatives in the energy sector are not big enough to offset the positive effects of lower oil prices on the rest of the economy,” Slok wrote. “The bears have a problem.”

His note comes as Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Russiastruck a tentative deal Monday to freeze their oil output at current levels, giving investors hope that the global oil glut might be finally be slowed.

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kontan: Caracas. Menteri Minyak dan Pertambangan Venezuela Eulogio del Pino mengatakan pada Kamis (25/2) bahwa negaranya akan bertemu dengan Arab Saudi, Rusia dan Qatar pada pertengahan Maret untuk membahas bagaimana menstabilkan harga minyak.

“Kami telah mencapai kesepakatan … di sebuah kota yang belum ditentukan, untuk memutuskan berbagai usulan,” kata Del Pino, seperti dikutip dari kantor berita Xinhua.

Dia juga meminta semua anggota OPEC dan sekutu untuk berpartisipasi dalam pertemuan tersebut, sehingga dapat mengambil tindakan luas untuk mengatasi pasar yang bermasalah.

“Kita perlu menyerahkan perjanjian ini ke produsen-produsen minyak utama di dunia … dan mengambil keputusan tentang bagaimana menstabilkan pasar,” tambahnya.

Pada 16 Februari, menteri minyak dari Venezuela, Arab Saudi, Rusia dan Qatar menandatangani kesepakatan di Doha tentang koordinasi tindakan untuk membekukan produksi minyak dalam upaya menstabilkan harga minyak dunia dan memastikan keuntungan lanjutan dari industri.

Perusahaan minyak nasional Venezuela PDVSA juga mengatakan para menteri sepakat untuk membentuk sebuah komite monitoring “untuk menindaklanjuti hasil tindakan-tindakan ini.”

Pemerintah Venezuela telah aktif mengupayakan pembekuan produksi sejak pertengahan 2015 karena harga minyak telah jatuh sekitar 70% sejak pertengahan 2014 menjadi di bawah US$ 33 per barel pada Rabu (24/2).

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HOUSTON, KOMPAS.com – Menteri Perminyakan Saudi, Ali Al-Naimi pada Selasa (23/02/2016) waktu setempat secara percaya diri mengatakan akan lebih banyak negara bergabung dalam pakta penahanan produksi minyak yang digagas Saudi dan Rusia beberapa waktu lalu.

Namun, sang menteri juga mengesampingkan dulu pemotongan produksi dalam waktu dekat.

Dua pernyataan ini membuat harga minyak jatuh sebesar 4 persen, dan membuat saham Wall Street dan Eropa memerah pada Rabu pagi ini (WIB).

Pernyataan Al-Naimi diucapkan pada pertemuan tahunan IHS CERAWeek di Houston, AS. Al-Naimi mengatakan bahwa eksekutif energi global mendukung langkah penahanan produksi minyak, sehingga demand akan menguat dalam beberapa waktu, yang akan mendorong harga minyak kembali naik setelah mencapai titik terendah dalam satu dekade.

“Penahanan produksi hanyalah satu proses awal. Jika kita bisa merangkul semua produsen top dunia untuk setuju tidak menambah ekstra barrel, maka stok minyak yang tinggi ini akan menurun seiring berjalannya waktu,” kata dia.

Namun, dia juga menambahkan bahwa pasar jangan melihat perjanjian yang baru saja muncul sebagai sebuah persetujuan untuk memangkas produksi minyak, sebab, kata dia, tidak cukup sebuah kesepakatan untuk mencapai tahap tersebut.

“(Kesepakatan) itu tidak akan terjadi karena banyak negara akan tetap berproduksi,” kata Al-Naimi, dalam sesi tanya jawab setelah pidatonya.

Hal ini membuat banyak pihak bertanya-tanya mengapa Arab Saudi tetap mempertahankan produksi minyaknya walau tahu harga minyak terus melorot.

“Bahkan bila mereka bilang akan memotong produksi minyaknya, mereka tidak akan melakukannya. Tidak usah buang waktu untuk mencari pemotongan produksi. Itu tidak akan terjadi,” tambah dia.

Para pedagangn bursa sebelumnya sudah skeptis bahwa upaya penahanan produksi minyak ini akan mendorong pasar dan harga minyak kembali naik setelah turun 4 persen pasca komentar Al-Naimi.

Penulis : Aprillia Ika
Editor : Aprillia Ika
Sumber : Reuters

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Singapore, Feb 22, 2016 (AFP)
Oil prices recovered in Asia on Monday after a steep fall in the previous session, with US crude back above $30 a barrel as traders mulled the impact of a potential freeze by key producers.

Oil spiked sharply last week after major exporters held talks on a potential agreement to reduce a global supply glut that has dragged prices to their lowest levels in nearly 13 years this month.

Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s top crude producers, have agreed to limit production if others followed suit.

But crude resumed its downtrend Friday as traders fretted the deal would not gain traction, with analysts cautioning Iraq and Iran, which is ramping up output after sanctions were lifted, had shown little support.

News commercial oil stockpiles in the US, the world’s top oil consumer, continued to build up added to the pressure.

At around 0335 GMT Monday, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in March was up 50 cents, or 1.69 percent, at $30.14.

Global benchmark, Brent, for April advanced 43 cents, or 1.30 percent, to $33.44 a barrel.

Sanjeev Gupta, who heads the Asia Pacific oil and gas practice at EY, predicted prices would remain under pressure and said he sees “little evidence of any relief from the oversupply”.

The market will now be “looking for clues on the outlook for crude oil demand from the manufacturing and service sector data from the US and Europe that will be released this week,” he added.

Still, Capital Economics said even if the producer talks did not lead to an agreement “they may be the first indication of willingness to act to prevent prices falling further”.

“A sustained recovery may require something more substantial, but for now at least oil prices appear to have found a floor,” it said.

NEW YORK – Harga minyak dunia naik pada Rabu (Kamis pagi WIB), terangkat oleh berita bahwa Iran memasuki pembicaraan dengan produsen besar lainnya untuk mengatasi harga rendah, meskipun menolak memberikan komitmen untuk setiap pembatasan produksi.

Patokan AS, minyak mentah West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman Maret, naik 1,62 dolar AS menjadi berakhir pada 30,66 dolar AS per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange.

Patokan Eropa, minyak mentah Brent North Sea untuk pengiriman April, naik 2,32 dolar AS menjadi menetap pada 34,50 dolar AS per barel di perdagangan London.

Minyak mendapat dukungan setelah Menteri Perminyakan Iran bertemu dengan perwakilan produsen utama lainnya sehari setelah Arab Saudi, Rusia, Venezuela dan Qatar mengatakan mereka siap untuk menahan produksi pada tingkat Januari, tetapi hanya jika produsen utama lain mengikutinya.

Menteri Perminyakan Iran Bijan Zanganeh menyambut langkah Saudi-Rusia, tapi mengindikasikan itu sendiri tidak cukup untuk menyelesaikan masalah harga rendah bagi para produsen.

Dia juga menolak Iran berkomitem untuk setiap pembatasan produksi.

“Ini adalah langkah pertama, tetapi kita membutuhkan yang lain-lainnya. Kami berharap untuk memulai kerja sama antara OPEC dan negara-negara non-OPEC,” katanya, menurut kementerian perminyakan.

“Kami mendukung setiap tindakan yang dapat menstabilkan pasar dan meningkatkan harga.” Analis Citi Futures Tim Evans memperingatkan reli harga minyak pada Rabu bisa berlangsung singkat.

“Tanpa komitmen dari Iran untuk menahan produksi pada tingkat saat ini, benar-benar tidak ada perubahan dalam perkiraan produksi mendatang yang akan memberikan dukungan mendasar bagi harga,” kata Evans.

TapiJohn Kilduff dari Again Capital mengatakan pembicaraan bisa menjadi signifikan.

“Pasar menghadiahi OPEC untuk datang bersama-sama di sini,” kata Kilduff.

“Kenyataan mereka mampu menggelar pertemuan sederhana membuka jalan untuk kesepakatan yang berpotensi lebih baik di masa mendatang.”

Â

http://economy.okezone.com/read/2016/02/18/320/1315081/minyak-naik-didukung-pembicaraan-iran-dengan-produsen-lainnya
Sumber : OKEZONE.COM

rose KECIL

the telegraph: Output freeze: ‘Not a precursor to a future cut’

Jasper Lawler, of CMC Markets, comments on the production freeze agreed earlier this morning by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Venezuela:

The meeting was reported to have finished by 9am, not exactly the longest meeting in history, with an agreement to freeze production at January levels rather than cut it back. Brent crude lost $1.50 per barrel from its highs of the day as the news broke. With the price having just touched its highest this month, oil market risks were always skewed to the downside.

“The output freeze is disappointing because it’s not an outright cut and with Iran not a part of the meeting, it’s still a bit far-fetched to think this is a precursor to a future cut. Iran’s absence from the meeting means overall OPEC output should still rise.”

Brent crude has fallen 4.45pc from an intraday high of $35.50 a-barrel to $33.92, recovering ever so slightly from hitting a nadir of $33.72 today.

REUTERS: Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 pared gains on Tuesday after Qatar said that four of the world’s largest producers agreed to freeze output at January levels, provided that other major exporters followed suit.

Qatari energy minister Mohammad bin Saleh al-Sada told a news conference that the step would help to stabilize the oil market, which has experienced price declines not seen since the early 2000s because of the pace at which supply has outstripped demand.

Analysts said that while the decision is a step in the right direction to bring supply and demand back into balance, global inventories remain near record levels and are likely to dampen any price rallies.

The oil ministers of Russia and Venezuela attended the meeting in the Qatari capital, together with Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi, who said the group’s next steps would be assessed over the coming months.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were up 81 cents at $34.20 a barrel by 09252 GMT, having fallen from an earlier peak of $35.55, the highest price since Feb. 4.

U.S. crude futures CLc1 were up 63 cents at $30.07, off the day’s high of $31.53.

‘BIG CHANGE’

“It’s really the first supply management decision taken since November 2014, so even though there will be some that will try to discount it and say it’s not a cut, it’s a change. It is a big change in policy,” Petromatrix strategist Olivier Jakob said.

“It’s quite typical to have some volatility when (headlines) come out, but I think over the medium term, people will start to review their positions.”

Oil prices have fallen by more than 70 percent in the past 20 months, driven down by near-record production both from OPEC members and other producers, such as Russia.

The closed-door meeting indicates the mood may be shifting among producers that have been determined to defend market share rather than prices.

Venezuela’s Oil Minister, Eulogio Del Pino, has visited major oil producers in recent weeks to rally support for the idea of freezing production at current levels in an effort to halt the downward spiral in prices, sources have said.

The drop in the oil price has eroded the finances of even the more affluent oil-producing nations, forcing governments to cut spending, increase deficit forcasts, borrow more and push through politically unpopular reforms.

In the meantime, U.S. crude prices could come under pressure as inventories remain close to record levels and U.S. refiners cut back processing runs.

U.S. crude could fall to below $20 as a drop in demand outweighs cuts to output as domestic producers shut wells, BMI Research said in a note.

(Additional reporting by Osamu Tsukimori and Aaron Sheldrick; Editing by David Goodman)

 

JAKARTA kontan. Harga minyak mentah West Texas Intermediate (WTI) pada Sabtu (13/2) kemarin untuk pengiriman Maret mencapai US$ 29,44 per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange. Harga minyak yang belum menyentuh level US$ 30 per barel ini membawa kekhawatiran apakah usaha hulu migas masih bisa bertahan di bawah harga minyak yang terus tertekan.

Direktur Pembinaan Program Ditjen Migas Kementerian ESDM, Agus Cahyono Adi bilang harga minyak saat ini yang berkisar US$ 30 per barel sangat tipis dengan biaya produksi usaha hulu migas. Biaya produksi migas saat ini rata-rata sudah mencapai US$ 30 per barel, bahkan ada lapangan migas yang biaya produksinya mencapai US$ 50 per barel.

Dengan begitu perusahaan migas saat ini cukup menderita dengan kondisi harga minyak yang rendah. “Hulu menderita, pemerintah tidak dapat apa-apa dong dari kegiatan usaha hulu. Pendapatan negara dari operasi kegiatan usaha hulu migas bisa nol,” kata Agus di Dewan Pers, Minggu (14/2).

Maklum, industri hulu migas yang dua tahun lalu bisa mendapatkan harga minyak berkisar US$ 100 per barel saat ini hanya mendapatkan harga berkisar US$ 30 per barel. Untuk itu harapannya harga minyak dunia bisa naik hingga mencapai US$ 35 per barel hingga US$ 50 per barel.

Dengan harga US$ 50 per barel perusahaan produsen migas akan cukup nyaman dalam melakukan kegiatan usaha produksi dan eksploritasi migas.

Namun karena harga minyak belum juga naik, Agus pun mengatakan perusahaan hulu migas harus melakukan efisiensi superketat. Maklum, hingga saat ini pemerintah masih belum menetapkan insentif yang akan diberikan kepada kontraktor kontrak kerjasama (KKKS). Padahal Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) telah mengusulkan sejumlah poin insentif untuk membantu KKKS dalam menghadapi rendahnya harga minyak.

I.G.N Wiratmaja Puja, Direktur Jenderaal Migas Kementerian ESDM beralasan, pemerintah harus melakukan kordinasi dengan banyak stakeholder terlebih dahulu untuk membuat regulasi untuk memberikan insentif kepada KKKS.

Sementara itu, Agus menyebut saat ini pemerintah memang belum memberikan insentif. Pemerintah justru meminta KKKS agar tidak melakukan pemutusan hubungan kerja (PHK) karyawannya.

“Insentif yang dilakukan kan ada perpajakan yang serta merta mengikuti juga. Paling penting tidak melakukan PHK. Mereka melakukan cost efisiensi di perusahaan mereka,”tegas Agus.

Sementara itu Wianda Pusponegoro, VP Communication PT Pertamina (persero) mengatakan Pertamina sebagai salah satu KKKS memang terus melakukan efisienai biaya agar biaa mendapatkan quick yield return dalam kegiatan ekplorasi dan produksi migas. Di sisi lain, pihaknya pun selalu berdiskusi dengan pemerintah di tengah situasi harga minyak yang cukup menantang biarpun insentif belum juga diberikan.

“Kami biasa berdiskusi dan dialog bersama pemerintah apalagi SKK Migas berada dibawah ESDM, satu  kementerian teknis dengan Pertamina,”kata Wianda menanggapi masih belum adanya intensif bagi KKKS.

marketwatch: U.S. stocks snapped a five-day losing streak Friday and logged their largest daily gains so far this month, as battered bank and energy shares led a rebound at the end of a turbulent week.

J.P. Morgan Chase JPM, +8.33%  and Goldman Sachs Group GS, +3.87%  were the two top performers on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as financial shares found support after Deutsche Bank AG’s announcement that it would repurchase $5.4 billion of its senior unsecured debt, analysts said.

“[Banks] are in much better shape than the market is interpreting at this stage,” saidOliver Pursche, chief executive officer of Bruderman Brothers.

Dow industrials DJIA, +2.00% finished 313.66 points, or 2%, higher at 15,973.84, while the S&P 500 index SPX, +1.95% gained 35.70 points, or 2%, to 1,864.78. Financial shares were up 4%, making that group the best performing sector on the S&P, followed by materials, up 2.9%, and energy, up 2.6%. Every sector except for utilities was in the green.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite NDAQ, +2.23% rose 70.67 points, or 1.7%, to 4,337.

Unfortunately, the gains weren’t large enough to avert a second straight weekly loss for all three main indexes. The Dow was down 1.4%, the Nasdaq lost 0.6% and the S&P 500 slid 0.8%.

Oil prices CLH6, +10.72% LCOJ6, +8.62% recorded their largest one-day rise in seven years Friday, boosted by speculation about a possible production cut by the Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries. Data showing a drop in the North American rig count also supported prices.

‘Market sentiment has gotten so bearish that it’s just overdone.’

Oliver Pursche, Bruderman Brothers

Pursche said Friday’s recovery was a repudiation of excessive pessimism after a brutal week of trading. “Market sentiment has gotten so bearish that it’s just overdone,” he said.

Stocks also benefited from a strong reading on consumer spending. Retail sales rose 0.2% in January, beating expectations for a 0.1% increase from a survey of economists polled by MarketWatch, while the 0.1% decline initially reported for December was revised to show 0.2% growth.

The retail-sales figures suggest consumer confidence is on the rise despite the recent volatility in global stock markets. “We’ve been witnessing a steady increase in consumer confidence against a backdrop of doom and gloom,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank.

Stocks had an initial negative reaction to a survey from the University of Michiganshowed consumer sentiment has softened in February, largely due to a drop in its expectations component.

Read: 5 signs we might already be in a bear market

A recovery in oil prices helped boost energy shares and boost investors’ appetite for risky assets, analysts said.

It has taken between 50-300 million years to form, and yet we have managed to burn roughly half of all global oil reserves in merely 125 years or so.

The world now consumes 85 million barrels of oil per day, or 40,000 gallons per second, and demand is growing exponentially.

Oil production in 33 out of 48 out countries has now peaked, including Kuwait, Russia and Mexico. Global oil production is now also approaching an all time peak and can potentially end our Industrial Civilization. The most distinguished and prominent geologists, oil industry experts, energy analysts and organizations all agree that big trouble is brewing.

The world is not running out of oil itself, but rather its ability to produce high-quality cheap and economically extractable oil on demand. After more than fifty years of research and analysis on the subject by the most widely respected & rational scientists, it is now clear that the rate at which world oil producers can extract oil is reaching the maximum level possible. This is what is meant by Peak Oil. With great effort and expenditure, the current level of oil production can possibly be maintained for a few more years, but beyond that oil production must begin a permanent & irreversible decline. The Stone Age did not end because of the lack of stones, and the Oil Age won’t end because of lack of oil. The issue is lack of further growth, followed by gradual, then steep decline. Dr King Hubbert correctly predicted peaking of USA oil production in the 1970’s on this basis.

It is now widely acknowledged by the world’s leading petroleum geologists that more than 95 percent of all recoverable oil has now been found. We therefore know, within a reasonable degree of certainty, the total amount of oil available to us. Any oil well has roughly the same life cycle where the production rate peaks before it goes into terminal decline. This happens when about half of the oil has been recovered from the well. We have consumed approximately half of the world’s total reserve of about 2.5 trillion barrels of conventional oil in the ground when we started drilling the first well at a current rate of over 30 billion a year, meaning the world is nearing its production plateau.

Worldwide discovery of oil peaked in 1964 and has followed a steady decline since. According to industry consultants IHS Energy, 90% of all known reserves are now in production, suggesting that few major discoveries remain to be made. There have been no significant discoveries of new oil since 2002. In 2001 there were 8 large scale discoveries, and in 2002 there were 3 such discoveries. In 2003 there were no large scale discoveries of oil. Given geologists’ sophisticated understanding of the characteristics that would indicate a major oil find, is is highly unlikely that any area large enough to be significant has eluded attention and no amount or kind of technology will alter that. Since 1981 we have consumed oil faster than we have found it, and the gap continues to widen. Developing an area such as the Artic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska has a ten year lead time and would ultimately produce well under 1% of what the world currently consumes (IEA).

Oil is now being consumed four times faster than it is being discovered, and the situation is becoming critical.

“The consumption of a finite resource is simply a finite venture and the faster we use the quicker it peaks”  (M. Simmons)

Global oil production is rapidly approaching its peak, even if natural gas liquids and expensive, destructive, risky deepwater and polar oil are included.

Recent Warnings:

“Peak oil is now.” German Energy Watch Group –2008

“By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear..…” U.S. Department of Defense –2008 & 2010.

“A global peak is inevitable. The timing is uncertain, but the window is rapidly narrowing.” UK Energy Research Centre -2009

“The next five years will see us face … the oil crunch.” UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security –2009

 

The Saudi Arabia Case

With more than fifty oil-producing countries now in decline, focus on the oil-rich Middle East has sharpened dramatically. Countries of the Middle East have traditionally been able to relieve tight oil markets by increasing production, but, as the this region nears its own oil peak, any relief it can provide is limited and temporary.

Saudi Arabia is a major oil producer with 73% of all incremental world demand being met by this country. The worrying fact is that 90% of their production comes from only 5 mega fields (one is the Ghawar field which is the biggest ever discovered), and are all at risk of unplanned production collapse. In 2004 there were warning signs of production falling into depletion. For years, Aramco, the Saudi national company, use secondary recovery techniques by injecting enormous amounts of seawater (7 million  barrels daily) into their biggest field to boost production. These methods have only temporary effects, and lead to accelerated rates of depletion in the future.

Matt Simmons, long time energy analyst who studied energy for 34 years, in his book “Twilight in the Desert” effectively confronts the complacent belief that there are ample oil reserves in Saudi Arabia and has created a compelling case that Saudi Arabia production will soon reach a peak, after which its production will decline and the world will be confronted with a catastrophic oil shortage. The factual basis of the book is over 200 technical papers published over the last 20 years which individually detail problems with particular wells or particular fields, but which collectively demonstrate that the entire Saudi oil system is “old and fraying” with reserves deliberately vastly overestimated.

Geologist Dr Colin Campbell in a 1998 article in Scientific American also details numerous discrepancies about estimates in Middle East reserves. The extent of reserves reported remained amazingly constant from year to year and then jumped dramatically. A similar unexplainable jump occurred in other countries in the Middle East, sometimes even in the total absence of exploration, strongly suggesting that OPEC’s reserves are overstated.

 

Peak Oil Imminent

The only uncertainty about peak oil is the time scale, which is difficult to predict accurately. Over the years, accurate prediction of oil production was confronted by fluctuating ecological, economical, and political factors, which imposed many restrictions on its exploration, transportation, and supply and demand. At the end of 2009, the Kuwait university and the Kuwait Oil company collaborated in a study to predict the peak date using multicylic models, depending on the historical 2 oil production trend and known oil reserves of 47 major oil production countries, to overcome the limitations and restrictions associated with other previous models. Based on this model, world production is estimated to peak in 2014. Other experts, oil companies and analyst firm estimate the peak date between now and around 2020. What’s certain is that the global production will go into a permanent decline within our generation.

“One of nature’s biggest forces is exponential growth” 

(Albert Einstein)

At a current average global consumption growth rate of 2% annually (1995-2005), by 2025 the world will need 50% more oil (120 mbd), and the International Energy Agency (IEA) admits that Saudi will have to double oil production to achieve this, which is not feasible in even the most optimistic scenario. And that’s not even taking into account that 80% of the world is only just starting to use oil & gas. In recent years, energy demands from mostly emerging economies have increased dramatically in populous countries as their oil consumption per capita grows. The International Energy Agency estimates that 93% of all incremental demand comes from non-OECD countries. Therefore, in time oil prices will continue to rise.

Based on Simmon’s analysis, sudden and sharp oil production declines could happen at any time. Even under the most optimistic scenario, Saudi Arabia may be able to maintain current rates of production for several years, but will not be able to increase production enough to meet the expected increase in world demand. There is no likely scenario that some new frontier can replace Middle East oil declines.

From Wiki leaks it has emerged that Senior Saudi energy officials have privately warned US and European counterparts that Opec would have an “extremely difficult time” meeting demand and that the reserves of Saudi have been overstated by as much as 40%.

“Even an attempt to get up to 12 mbd would wreak havoc within a decade by causing damage to the oil fields. 
-Saudi Aramco official

Exxon Mobil Corporation, one of the world’s largest publicly owned petroleum companies, is the most forthright of the major oil companies having had the courage and honesty to quietly publish the declining discovery trend, based on sound industry data with reserve revisions properly backdated. Furthermore, the company is running page-size advertisements in European papers stressing the immense challenges to be faced in meeting future energy demand, hinting that the challenges might not be met despite its considerable expertise. Chevron recently joined their campaign publishing an advertisement in national newspapers stating that the ‘Era of Easy Oil is Over’ (see here to view full ad).

“Initially it will be denied. There will be much lying and obfuscation. Then prices will rise and demand will fall. The rich will outbid the poor for available supplies.” 

 

The fallacy of Alternatives

The public, business leaders and politicians are all under the false assumption that oil depletion is a straightforward engineering problem of exactly the kind that technology and human ingenuity have so successfully solved before. Technology itself has become a kind of supernatural force, although in reality it is just the hardware and programming for running that fuel, and governed by the basic laws of physics and thermodynamics. Much of our existing technology simply won’t work without an abundant underlying fossil fuel base. In addition, physicist Jonathan Huebner has concluded inThe History of Science and Technology that the rate of innovation in the US peaked in 1873, and the current rate of innovation is about the same as it was in 1600. According to Huebner, by 2024 it will have slumped to the same level as it was in the Dark Ages. Hence, without sufficient innovation and a comfortable surplus of fossil fuels, we may simply lack the tools to move forward.

With this energy base dwindling, there is simply not enough time to replace a fluid so cheap, abundant and versatile. It is rich in energy, easy to use, store, and transport. Nothing has the bang for the buck of oil, and nothing can replace it in time – either separately or in combination. Wind, waves and other renewables are all pretty marginal and also take a lot of energy to construct and require a petroleum platform to work off.

Natural gas is a diminishing resource as well and cannot satisfy the growing demand for energy. US Gas supplies were so low in 2003 after a harsh winter that to preserve life and property supplies were close to being cut off to manufacturers, electric plants and lastly homes.

Ethanol has a net energy value of zero (not accounting for soil and water damage and other costs due to unsustainable agricultural practices) – it is subsidized as a boon to agribusiness and would have a negligible effect (Prindle, ACEEE).

Solar energy produces marginal net energy, but are still decades away at best from being a viable substitute given the recent rate of progress in efficiency and costs (averaging about five percent a year) and is nowhere ready to meet the world’s energy needs. More importantly, solar photovoltaic cells (PVC) are built from hydrocarbon feed stocks and therefore require excess resources. It is estimated that a global solar energy system would take a century to build and would consume a major portion of world iron production (Foreign Affairs, Rhodes).

The widespread belief that hydrogen is going to save the day is a good example of how delusional people have become. Hydrogen fuel cells are not an energy source at all, but are more properly termed a form of energy storage. Free hydrogen does not exist on this planet. It requires more energy to break a hydrogen bond than will ever be garnered from that free hydrogen. The current source of hydrogen is natural gas – that is, a hydrocarbon. In the envisioned system of solar PVC & hydrogen fuel cells, every major component of the system, from the PVC to the fuel cells themselves will require hydrocarbon energy and feedstocks. The oil age will never be replaced by a hydrogen fuel-cell economy.

Coal is abundant, but its net energy profile is poor compared to oil and its conversion process to synthetic fuels is very inefficient. Coal would have to be mined at much higher rates to replace declining oil field. In addition, coal production is extremely harmful to the environment. One large coal burning electric plant releases enough radioactive material in a year to build two atomic bombs, apart from emitting more greenhouse gases than any other fuels.  Coal is implicated in mercury pollution that causes 60.000 cases of brain damage in newborn children every year in the USA. Resorting to coal would be a very big step backwards and what we may face then may be more like the Dim Ages. More importantly,  coal is distributed very unevenly with the top three countries (China, USA, USSR) possessing almost 70% of total. Much of the current oil  and gas supply is in low-population countries, such as Saudi Arabia, that cannot possibly use all of the production for themselves.  They are hence quite willing, indeed eager, to sell it to other countries.  When oil and gas are gone, and only coal remains, and the few (large-population) countries that possess it need all of it for their own populations, it will be interesting to see how much is offered for sale to other countries.

Obtaining usable oil from tar sands requires huge amounts of energy, as it has to be mined and washed with super hot water. From an energy balance, it takes the equivalence of two barrels of oil to produce three, which is still positive but poor in terms of energy economics. In the early days of conventional oil, this ratio used to be one to thirty.

Nuclear power plants are simply too expensive and take ten years to build, relying on a fossil fuel platform for all stages of construction, maintenance, and extracting & processing nuclear fuels. Additionally, uranium is also a rare and finite source with its own production peak. Since 2006, the uranium price has already more than doubled.

Nuclear fusion is the kind of energy that the world needs. However, mastering it has been 25 years away for the past 50 years, and still is…

Fossil fuels allowed us to operate highly complex systems at gigantic scales. Renewables are simply incompatible in this context and the new fuels and technologies required would simply take a lot more time to develop than available and require access to abundant supplies of cheap fossil fuels, putting the industrial adventure out of business.

In an interview with The Times, former Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer calls for a “reality check” and warns that the world’s energy crisis cannot be solved by renewables. “Contrary to public perceptions, renewable energy is not the silver bullet that will soon solve all our problems. Just when energy demand is surging, many of the world’s conventional oilfields are going into decline. The world is blinding itself to the reality of its energy problems, ignoring the scale of growth in demand from developing countries and placing too much faith in renewable sources of power”.

Alternative energies will never replace fossil fuels at the scale, rate and manner at which the world currently consumes them, and humankind’s ingenuity will simply not overcome the upper limits of geology & physics.  

Current Global Energy Production: No substitutes can replace fossil fuels at the same scale & rate at which the world currently use them

 

marketwatch: If it feels as if the stock market and oil futures are moving in lockstep these days it’s because, to a large extent, they are.

As oil futures plunged in the first two weeks of the new year to 12-year lows, U.S. equities put in the worst-ever start to a new calendar year.

The Tuesday price action was no exception. Oil futures CLG6, -2.42% CLH6, -2.33% surged overnight, lifting global equities and sending U.S. stock-index futures sharply higher. As those oil gains started to fade, stocks also lost altitude. As oilturned lower, U.S. equities soon followed suit, giving up gains to trade in negative territory.

To be a little more precise, Leo Chen, quantitative analyst at Cumberland Advisors, noted that the correlation became very tight after oil fell below $40 a barrel in December. Since then, the contemporaneous correlation between Brent futuresLCOH6, -2.54%  and the S&P 500 SPX, +0.05%  is “unbelievably high” at 91.39% (see chart below), Chen said, in a note.

Cumberland Advisors

That’s pretty close to lockstep, and on par with the correlation between U.S. gross domestic product and the S&P 500, Chen wrote.

Such a close correlation isn’t the norm. In fact, over a five-year period, the correlation was negative 71.8%—meaning stocks and oil tended to move in opposite directions (see chart below), Chen said. And over the last 20 years, the correlation between the two assets, while positive, is only 25%, he said, citing Barclays data.

That low correlation over time might explain why investors have been so confounded by the inability of equities to rally as the oil plunge accelerated. After all, stock-market bulls point out that, energy sector aside, lower fuel costs would seem to be a positive for the U.S. economy.

So why the sudden tie-up? Chen writes that while “random walk theory” argues that market price is unpredictable, empirical evidence suggests that asset prices tend to be correlated during periods of downside movement. “Downward drift” is often observed, he said, which accounts for “negative momentum.”

“The fact that oil has kept breaking the psychological barriers of $100, $90, $80, $70…all the way to $30 has shattered investors’ confidence and made many of them hit the panic button,” Chen wrote.

It’s been a similar story when it comes to Chinese equities, which also have a low long-term correlation but have moved very closely since the start of the new year, Chen notes.

Read: The next 5% move by stocks will be up: Deutsche Bank.

The good news for stock-market bulls is that if the U.S. market has overreacted to tumbling oil prices and Chinese stocks, then an actual decline to $20 a barrel for crude or another 10% drop in Shanghai may not sting as much, Chen said, while a rebound by oil or Chinese equities could lead to a “quite pleasant” bounce on Wall Street.

 

Singapore, Jan 12, 2016 (AFP)
US crude tumbled below $31 a barrel Tuesday, extending a sell-off that has pushed it to more than 12-year lows amid a global supply glut, a strong dollar and tepid demand.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in February was down 87 cents, or 2.77 percent, to $30.54 per barrel for February delivery at around 0630 GMT.

European benchmark Brent crude fell 98 cents, or 3.11 percent, to $30.57.

The last time prices were so low for WTI was in December 2003 and in April 2004 for Brent. WTI touched a low of $29.66 in December 2003 and Brent in April 2004 hit $29.95.

Prices plummeted 10 percent last week as investors grew concerned about the global supply glut and weakness in key market China, the world’s biggest energy user.

Potential geopolitical risks, including the escalating Saudi Arabia-Iran row, are also keeping traders on edge.

The rise in the greenback, which makes dollar-priced oil more expensive for holders of weaker currencies, was also a key factor in Tuesday’s price decline, analysts said.

“The drop mainly comes from the increasing dollar strength… That accounts for the bulk of the movement,” Phillip Futures investment analyst Daniel Ang told AFP.

But Ang said he did not think prices would breach the $30 psychological support barrier.

“We may see some bearishness in the short term where prices may continue falling a little bit but I think they will remain highly supported (at $30),” he said.

The market is also bracing for new crude supplies from Iran once Western economic sanctions on the country are lifted under a deal struck last year to curb Tehran’s nuclear programme.

This could bring another one million barrels of oil per day on to the already saturated global market within months.

“When you have a supply overhang, there’s going to be continued downward pressure on prices,” Ric Spooner, a chief analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney, told Bloomberg News.

“Investors are looking toward a difficult few months for oil, especially with Iran set to boost exports. We are likely to see production cuts at these prices, but they may take some months to come through.”

 

Jakarta detik-Volatilitas harga minyak dunia belum berakhir. Sepanjang tahun lalu, harga minyak dunia anjlok hingga mencapai 35% dan berada di level US$ 37 per barel. Rendahnya harga minyak tersebut belum pernah terjadi setelah krisis keuangan global.

Dalam waktu dekat, harga minyak dunia belum akan pulih. Sebagian besar para ahli memperkirakan, harga minyak akan kembali bangkit pada akhir tahun 2016.

Demikian dilansir dari CNN.com, Minggu (3/1/2016).

Goldman Sachs memprediksi, harga minyak dunia akan bergerak di level rata-rata US$ 38 per barel pada Februari 2016, bahkan lebih rendah dibandingkan tahun lalu.

Penurunan harga minyak yang terus-menerus ini terjadi akibat pasokan global yang melimpah. Sehingga pasar minyak tidak seimbang.

Di satu sisi, permintaan melambat terutama di China. Di sisi lain, produsen minyak terbesar di dunia terus memompa produksi mereka.

Negara-negara yang masuk dalam produsen minyak atau Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) yang merupakan pemain terbesar minyak dunia enggan untk memangkas produksi mereka.

Di samping itu, sebuah persaingan baru telah muncul dalam OPEC. Iran bersiap untuk kembali masuk jajaran tertinggi produsen minyak global. Sanksi Iran telah lama mengekang mereka untuk bisa memproduksi dan mengekspor minyak.

Setelah sanksi dicabut, Iran bersiap untuk kembali meningkatkan produksi sebanyak 1,5 juta barel per hari di tahun ini.

Itu berarti akan terjadi kelebihan pasokan minyak global.

Penurunan harga minyak dari US$ 108 per barel menjadi US$ 37 per barel dalam 18 bulan terakhir, menekan AS sebagai salah satu produsen terbesar minyak dunia. Akibatnya, utang negara adidaya tersebut kian membengkak.

Industri minyak AS juga ikut terkena imbasnya, sampai-sampai harus memangkas 100.000 tenaga kerja mereka di tahun 2015.

Pasokan minyak AS diperkirakan menurun di tahun 2016, akan tetapi ini juga belum bisa mengimbangi pasar.

Badan Energi Internasional memonitor tren pasar bagi negara-negara terkaya di dunia dan memperkirakan pasokan minyak dunia masih akan berlimpah di tahun ini. Itu artinya, harga minyak dunia masih akan merosot.

(drk/drk)

the guardian Nils Pratley : A glut of oil, the demise of Opec and weakening global demand combined to make 2015 the year of crashing oil prices. The cost of crude fell to levels not seen for 11 years – and the decline may have further to go.

There have been four sharp increases in the price of oil in the past four decades – in 1973, 1979, 1990 and 2008 – and each has led to a global recession. By that measure, a lower oil price should be positive for the world economy, with lower fuel costs for consumers and businesses in those countries that import crude outweighing the losses to producing nations.

But the evidence since oil prices started falling from their peak of $115 a barrel in August 2014 has not supported that thesis – or not yet. Oil producers have certainly felt the impact of the lower prices on their growth rates, their trade figures and their public finances butthere has been no surge in consumer spending or business investment elsewhere.

Economist still reckon there will be a boost from a lower oil price particularly if it looks as if the lower cost of crude will be sustained.

Dhaval Joshi, an economist at BCA, a London-based research company, said: “A commodity bubble has deflated three times in the past 100 years: the first was after world war one; the second was after the 1980s oil shock; the third is happening right now.”

For the big producer countries, this is a major headache, the ramifications of which are only starting to be felt. Oil powers base their spending plans on an assumed crude price. The graphic below shows just how far below water their budgets are.

https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2015/12/oilpricebreakeven-zip/giv-27167yJRVb9AasfZd/

Joshi says crude prices may fall by a further 35% to reach its long-term trend. That would mean an oil price closer to $25 a barrel – and fiscal crises in some of the world’s most pivotal economies.

Saudi Arabia

Low oil prices are not just squeezing Saudi Arabia’s domestic budget, imposing austerity on a kingdom not used to it: it is taking its toll on Saudi support for foreign projects too.

The kingdom this week announced swingeing budget cuts for 2016 to address an alarming deficit of 15% of GDP run up this year. Subsidies for water, electricity and petroleum products are likely to be cut, and government projects reined in.

But overseas beneficiaries will face some austerity too. For years, Saudi Arabia has used its oil wealth to support friends and allies around the world, including media organisations, thinktanks, academic institutions, religious schools and charities. Countries that have traditionally benefited from Saudi largesse include Jordan, Lebanon, Bahrain, Palestine and Egypt.

But now the IMF has raised the prospect that Saudi Arabia could go bankrupt in five years without changes to its economic policy, cuts in support to foreign allies seem inevitable.

Egypt’s black-hole economy is potentially the kingdom’s most expensive foreign policy commitment. In recent years, Saudi Arabia has donated billions in cash and oil products but, despite this, the Egyptian economy, battered by war, terrorism and political instability, is facing an acute foreign currency shortage.

Speculation is mounting that Saudi financial support to Egypt is starting to dry up – something the Egyptian authorities have denied – and that this is damaging the bilateral relationship.

There have been some signs of tension. In July, Egypt’s oil minister said he had no objections to importing crude oil from Iran, a move sure to ruffle the Saudis. In September, the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi – known for his closeness to the Saudi state – raised eyebrows when he said the new Egyptian culture minister, Hilmi al-Namnam, who is well known for his secularism and dislike of Wahhabi Islam, should never have been appointed.

So far, the Saudi authorities have given few clear signs about how they are planning to respond to the oil price crisis, let alone lay out a long-term plan for a post-oil Saudi Arabia.

Options under consideration are thought to include cutting construction projects, energy subsidies and public sector wages, introducing new taxes and privatisations, and issuing debt.

Another possibility foreign observers have posited is that the Saudis will be forced to unpeg the riyal from the dollar, although given the potential this would have for uncontrollable knock-on effects on the rest of the economy, this seems likely to be a last resort.

Cuts impacting on ordinary Saudis are something the government will be keen to avoid to maintain political stability, so industry, the public sector and foreign allies are likely to bear the brunt of the economic burden.

Nigeria

The oil price slump has not prevented Nigeria’s new government from unveiling big spending plans – but analysts warn that the generosity is misplaced at a time when oil prices languish below $40 a barrel.

Nigeria is Africa’s top oil producer and the World Bank estimates crude sales fund about 75% of the country’s budget.

In its £19.8bn budget proposal, the government plans to increase spending by about one quarter over last year’s budget, and to pay for it by improving tax collection and cutting the cost of government.

The budget includes £1.65bn for cash transfers to poor Nigerians. The programme was a campaign promise of the president, Muhammadu Buhari, who was elected in March on a platform of cutting corruption and weaning Nigeria’s economy off its dependence on oil revenue.

But some analysts think the proposed budget is unrealistic during times of $40 oil.

“This brings a dose of reality to a people who have extremely high expectations,” said Bismarck Rewane, the chief executive of Financial Derivatives Co. He predicted the government would have to back down on some of its promises.

Nigeria is Africa’s largest economy, but most of the money is concentrated in the hands of a wealthy elite and about two-thirds of Nigerians live in poverty, according to the United Nations development programme.

Unemployment has climbed this year, hitting 9.9% in the third quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Chuba Ezekwesili, research analyst at Nigerian Economic Summit Group, says despite the falling price of crude, the country has been able to avoid a jump in inflation by imposing limits on the availability of foreign currency.

While other major oil producing economies have let their currencies lose value along with oil prices, Nigeria has spent its reserves to prop up the value of the naira. But Ezekwesili says they can only do that for so long.

“They’re sort of delaying the inevitable,” he said. “I feel like eventually it has to give way, and by the time it does I feel the economy is going to be hurt because a lot of businesses can’t work under those conditions.”

Ezekwesili was also sceptical of the government’s ability to generate the revenue necessary to pay for programmes such as cash transfers to the poor. He doubts the government can accomplish its goals of streamlining its costs and generating more revenue by next year.

“One thing I’ve learned about policies in Nigeria is we tend to be very optimistic but it never really works out exactly as we want it to,” Ezekwesili said.

Russia

Vladimir Putin goes into 2016 with record approval ratings but the shakiest economic outlook since he took charge. In the 15 years he has been at the helm, 2015 was the first year that real wages registered a decline, something that did not happen even during the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Oil and gas exports make up about half of the Russian budget, and the rouble ratehas been strongly linked to the price of oil.

Sanctions against Russia, particularly the ban on Russian banks seeking western credit, combined with falling oil prices in late 2014 to create a perfect storm that demolished the rouble, with the currency losing half of its value against the dollar, reviving memories of previous crashes. The currency regained some of its value by spring, but falling oil prices in autumn have caused it to fall back to lows similar to those it experienced in late 2014.

Falling oil prices were one of the principal reasons for the collapse in the Soviet economy, and some economists are warning of history repeating itself. Riding on a wave of high oil prices for most of his presidency, the Russian president did not expect such a sharp downturn. Last October, Putin said that if the price of oil fell below $80 a barrel, the world economy would crash. A range of other top Russian officials made similar statements, in effect ruling out the possibility that oil could fall below $70.

Some analysts say the rouble is still overvalued, and the current oil price should theoretically push the rouble down further. This is necessary to balance the budget: the fewer dollars Russia receives for the oil it sells, the higher the exchange rate needs to be for the budget to receive the requisite amount of roubles. For the budget to balance at 65 roubles, not far off the current rate, the price of oil should be $70, a recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch report found.

For ordinary Russians, it could be a tough year ahead. Those who were used to travelling abroad have already had to scale back as the rouble made the cost of visiting foreign cities prohibitive; and rising food prices have made it harder to balance the books for many families.

The 2016 budget, fixed in October, requires oil to be at $50 in order to run a 3% deficit within “acceptable” rouble rate limits, meaning if the price does not rise soon, cuts will need to be made or reserves spent. The war in Syria is an extra cost, and the announced increases in military spending are not likely to be reversed.

US

Filling up at the gas station hasn’t been this cheap in the US since the recession. The nationwide average price of a gallon of regular is now $2.02 (£1.36), down 58 cents from this time last year, according to auto club AAA, and expected to fall further.

Scared that North America’s oil boom threatens its grip, Opec, the oil cartel, stepped up production and forced a price war that has driven oil prices down to below $35 a barrel. US consumers have benefited from lower petrol prices to the tune of about $700 a year, according to the US government, and that money is fuelling consumer spending. According to a recent report from JP Morgan, 80% of that saving is being spent on goods and services.

But the collapsing price of oil has also cast a shadow over the US energy industry – formerly one of the country’s fastest growing employers. Fracking – the controversial process of extracting oil and gas from shale rock – has become less attractive to investors as the oil price has fallen, and tens of thousands of jobs have been lost as a result. This year, the International Energy Agency said low oil prices would “slam the brakes” on the US shale industry and the impact is already being felt across the country’s oil producing areas.

The US energy sector has cut more than 90,000 jobs this year, according to outplacement company Challenger, Gray & Christmas. And while the overall US unemployment rate has continued to fall, in Texas unemployment has risen since August, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics. In North Dakota, home of the Bakken shale oil field, more than 17% of the mining jobs – which include oil and natural gas – have disappeared in the past year. More jobs look certain to be lost in the coming months.

North of the border in Canada, things are even worse. In Alberta, “the Texas of the north”, job layoffs and the downturn of the economy have been blamed for a30% rise in suicides between January and June, compared with 2014. In Saskatchewan, another energy-dependent region, there have been 19% moresuicides this year.

Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodity broker with RJO Futures, said the situation was only likely to get worse for those employed in the US energy sector. “There are oil tankers just sitting off the coast because we don’t need more supply. We have too much,” he said. “There’s oversupply and a lack of anybody trying to tighten production because they don’t want to lose market share.”

As a result he predicts oil prices will go lower, taking more jobs with it. But for most consumers, it’s a win. Unlike other global economic trends, the oil price fall actually benefits average Americans, said Pavilonis. “This is our money,” he said. “For most people, it’s a good thing.”

Venezuela

In most of the world, falling oil prices have caused significant reductions in petrol prices. But in the country with the world’s largest oil reserves, the oil glut could force a price rise.

“It’s probably the only place in the world where with oil prices so low, they may raise gasoline prices,” says Pedro Méndez, an informal taxi driver in Caracas, the Venezuelan capital, who fills the tank of his Ford Laser for less than a dollar.

But the lower the price of oil goes, the deeper Venezuela’s economy sinks. It’s near total dependence on crude exports for hard currency has seen the government of president Nicolás Maduro struggling to try keep the economy afloat.

The political effect is already being felt. Gripped by spiraling inflation, chronic shortages of basic goods and a quickly depreciating currency, Venezuelan voters this month gave the opposition an overwhelming majority in the new legislature, which takes office in January.

Each $1 drop in oil prices results in more than $685m in lost yearly oil income for PDVSA, the state-owned oil company, according to analysts.

And every drop in crude prices means less funding for the health, education and housing and other social welfare programmes that won Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez, widespread support for his self-styled “Bolivarian revolution”.

While dwindling oil revenue hurts the social programmes, Antonio Azpurua, a financial consultant with CFS Partners/LA Group, says it could be a blessing in disguise, allowing Venezuela to wean itself of its dependence on crude. “Venezuela needs to take advantage of low oil prices to build its industrial base,” he says.

With a super-majority in the National Assembly, the opposition could reverse some of Maduro’s populist measures, which have contributed to the current economic crisis. They could also choose to raise petrol prices.

Iran

Iran is rushing to implement the landmark nuclear accord in order to cash in on sanctions relief as early as next month, but the plummeting price of oil is tempering its expectations even though its economy has become less dependent on crude sales.

Tehran currently exports 1.1m barrels of oil per a but the Iranian oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, has announced that the country is aiming to double that amount within six months of sanctions being lifted, hoping it will return to the pre-sanctions level of 2.2m.

Although the EU lifted Iranian sanctions in October after the Vienna nuclear agreement, the measures will only come into effect after what has become known as “implementation day”, the unknown date when the UN nuclear watchdog, IAEA, will verify that Iran has taken the necessary steps as outlined under the nuclear deal. Iran is expediting whatever it can to bring this date forward to as early as January.

In an effort to woo foreign investment in the post-sanctions era, Iran put a set of new lucrative oil and gas contracts, worth more than $30bn, on the market this month. But all these efforts have come at a time when global oil prices are falling as a result of a crude surplus of 2m barrels a day, a phenomenon Tehran blames on the Saudis.

“The drop in oil prices hurts all oil producers, not just Iran,” said Amir Handjani, president of PG International commodities trading services and a member of the board directors of RAK Petroleum.

“Saudi Arabia is very aware that Iran will be able to sell its crude unencumbered by sanctions on the international market very soon and will use all means at its disposal to make sure Iran doesn’t recapture the market share it lost over the past four years,” he said.

“Basically, Riyadh’s message to Tehran is simple: we can endure low oil prices for a while; can you?”

But the experience of years under sanctions has made the Iranian economy “incredibly resilient”, according to Handjani. Iran’s economy faced huge economic problems in recent years due to international sanctions imposed over Tehran’s nuclear programme. Plummeting oil prices only added to economic woes in a country with the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves.

“To be sure, low oil prices deny Tehran much needed revenue but unlike the Saudis, Iran’s economy is not solely dependent on oil exports. Oil revenue accounts for about 15% of Iran’s GDP,” Handjani told the Guardian. Sanctions have forced Iran to diversify its economy, he said. It has a large manufacturing base, IT sector, and robust agro-industries, which make its economy on the whole “much more balanced” than Saudi Arabia.

“The Iranian economy has absorbed so many shocks over the past 36 years, from war to sanctions, that the pain of low oil prices now, as it breaks from international isolation, pales in comparison.”

Without naming Saudi Arabia, Zanganeh said last week that it was clear which country had an excess of supply and that there was “no ambiguity about who they are”. On the occasion of unveiling new oil contracts, the Iranian minister said last month that his country was willing to play a major role in oil supply and was even ready to work with American companies. “The way for the presence of these companies in Iran’s oil industry is open,” he said at the Iran Petroleum Contracts Conference in Tehran.

The deputy managing director of the national Iranian oil company (NIOC) told the Guardian in September that the Iranian government was earning more from tax than oil for the first time in almost half a century as the country shifts its traditional reliance on crude to taxation revenues in the face of falling oil prices. Critics say Iran is unlikely to maintain that equation when the lifting of sanctions allows it to export more oil.

According to Opec, Iran on average was selling oil at $38.92 a barrel in November, $5.63 less than the average in October, which is the worst drop among the group’s members.

Libya

Plunging oil prices are threatening disaster in Libya, where civil war has left the population depending on fast-dwindling oil revenues to survive.

Libya has Africa’s largest oil reserves and in normal times this provides 95% of the country’s export revenues, keeping the economy afloat. But civil war between rival governments at either end of the country has shattered the economy, leaving the population almost wholly dependent on revenue generated overseas.

The crash in oil prices has halved revenues, and shortages of foodstuffs and medicines – even petrol – are starting to be felt.

This cash squeeze has triggered a three-way battle for control of what remains of the country’s oil wealth. Much of Libya’s largest group of oil fields, the Sirte Basin, is now held by Islamic State, which has interposed itself between forces of the rival governments. Most of what remains is in eastern Libya, held by the elected parliament based in Tobruk.

Tobruk is using its status as the internationally recognised government to battle in foreign courts for the right to income from other producing fields, opposing the state-owned National Oil Corporation, whose headquarters remains in Tripoli, held by a rival parliament.

Tobruk has set up a second National Oil Corporation, based in eastern Libya, and last month demanded international oil companies switch payments that currently go to Tripoli.

Countering that, Tripoli’s NOC chief, Mustafa Sanallah, convened a conference in London in October calling on oil buyers to stick with him. Two of the world’s largest oil buyers, Glencore and Vitol, have agreed, but the eastern government has vowed legal action.

London courts are likely to be the proving ground for this test of wills, with both governments already gearing up for a precedent-setting high court battle, due early next year, for control of the Libya Investment Authority, the country’s £65bn sovereign wealth fund.

But whoever wins control of what remains of the oil industry may find it a pyrrhic victory. John Hamilton, director of London’s Cross-border Information, says the glut of oil on world markets and turbulence around the few remaining oil ports means Libyan oil has already been “priced out” by many buyers.

 the age Energy companies are anxiously awaiting the bottom of the seemingly endless plunge in the oil price, but one company has defied expectation and posted a share price gain.

The S&P/ASX energy sub-index is the worst performing sector for the year, down 34.8 per cent year-to-date, compared to the broader ASX 200 which is down 5.6 per cent. The materials index is the second-worst performer, down 23 per cent.

But resources companies may take heart from Credit Suisse Private Banking and Wealth Management which believes commodity prices are closer to stabilising.

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“Although we are not positive on commodities we do believe they could be closer to stabilising and this would provide a boost for Australia,” chief investment strategist for Australia David McDonald said.

The investment team had turned positive on Australian equities for 2016, almost purely on a valuation basis, and said particular value could be found in the beleaguered materials and energy sectors.

“Certainly if you’re willing to take a longer view there is compelling value in some of the resources stocks,” Mr McDonald said.

“We’ve seen earnings of the resources sector revised down from a positive… to minus 25 per cent now, that’s a pretty negative outlook and further revisions down are unlikely,” he said.

An iron ore price back above $US40 a tonne and oil returning above $US45 a barrel would provide a lift, he said.

Oil’s slip

Oil prices are however languishing at 11-year lows amid a worsening supply glut. The slide accelerated after the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries [OPEC] meeting in November led to supply being maintained despite waning demand.

On Tuesday the price of Brent crude oil was sitting at $US36.39 a barrel. The price has fallen 35 per cent this year, and 70 per cent in just 18 months.

The steep declines in the oil prices and the underperformance of the ASX energy sector have brought into stark contrast the performance of petrol company Caltex Australia this year.

The company is the only one in the sub-index of 11 stocks to post a gain for the year, with its nearest best-performer being Oil Search, down 22.7 per cent. It is the only member of the group that benefits from lower oil prices.

Last week Caltex upgraded its benchmark after-tax profit guidance for 2015 to a record $615 million to $635 million, 5 per cent higher than Bloomberg consensus forecasts.

The news sparked excitement among stockbrokers, with Macquarie Bank, Credit Suisse, Bell Potter, UBS and Deutsche Bank among those upgrading their guidance or target prices.

“2015 is expected to be a good year for Caltex, thanks to high refiner margins/low Australian dollar,” UBS analyst Nik Burns said.

Credit Suisse analyst Mark Samter noted corporate costs were higher, largely due to bonus payments but added “if any management team [and other staff] deserves it, it is this one though”.

He  said the share price falls of others in the sector had been “significant”.

“With volumes still low [albeit recovering], the real strength came from margins,” he said.

The profit guidance reignited concerns from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission about the “gouging” of petrol prices at the bowser by the petrol retailers.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/commodity-prices-closer-to-the-bottom-credit-suisse-says-20151221-glszd7.html#ixzz3v3AgddLp
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Posted on Thu, 17 December 2015 21:52 | 0

NEW YORK. Minyak memperpanjang kenaikannya, Rabu (23/12). Mengacu data Bloomberg, harga kontrak minyak jenis West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman Februari naik sebanyak 42 sen menjadi US$ 36,56 per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange dan  berada di U$ 36,48 pukul 03:56 waktu Singapura WIB.

Kontrak minyak naik 33 sen menjadi U$ 36,14 pada Selasa (22/12). Volume semua berjangka yang diperdagangkan adalah sekitar 44 % di bawah rata-rata 100-hari.

Minyak di New York memperpanjang kenaikan dan diperdagangkan mendekati paritas untuk Brent sebelum AS persediaan minyak mentah dan produksi data.

Minyak jenis WTI, pekan ini naik ke dekati Brent untuk pertama kalinya sejak Januari pada spekulasi keputusan AS bulan ini untuk mengakhiri larangan 40- tahun pada ekspor dapat meringankan kelebihan pasokan bangsa. Stok minyak mentah kemungkinan naik 1,2 juta barel pekan lalu, menurut survei Bloomberg sebelum laporan pemerintah hari Rabu.

Minyak menuju kerugian tahunan kedua dipicu tanda-tanda banjirnya pasokan global yang akan berkepanjangan setelah Organisasi Negara Pengekspor Minyak (OPEC) efektif ditinggalkan batas produksi pada pertemuan awal bulan ini. Brent, patokan untuk lebih dari setengah minyak mentah dunia, siap untuk mengakhiri tahun 2015 dengan harga rata-rata tahunan terendah dalam 11 tahun.

Di mana harga kontrak Brent untuk pengiriman Februari adalah 41 sen lebih tinggi pada U$ 36,52 per barel di London berbasis ICE Futures Europe exchange. Kontrak kehilangan 0,7 % menjadi U$ 36,11 pada Selasa, penutupan terendah sejak Juli 2004.

http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/minyak-wti-naik-ke-us-3656-per-barel

Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID

 Bisnis.com, JAKARTA — Harga minyak terus merosot ke level terendah dalam tujuh tahun terakhir. Kombinasi dari tekanan kenaikan suku bunga Federal Reserve dan melonjaknya pasokan minyak Amerika Serikat ke level tertinggi dalam tiga dekade terakhir bisa terus berlanjut sampai akhir tahun ini.

Pada perdagangan hari ini sampai pukul 15:20 WIB, harga minyak West Texas Intermediate (WTI) turun 0,37% menjadi US$34,82 per barel, sedangkan harga minyak Brent naik 0,16% menjadi US$37,12 per barel.

Michael McCharty, Kepala Strategi pasar CMC Markets, mengatakan penggerak harga minyak ke arah bawah saat ini adalah dolar AS yang terus menguat serta tambahan respon negatif setelah data pasokan dan produksi minyak Amerika Serikat (AS) masih meningkat saat ini.

“Kami melihat produksi shale oil AS cenderung stabil meskipun harga minyak sudah anjlok parah,” ujarnya seperti dilansir Bloomberg pada Jumat (18/12).

Pekan ini, data Energy Information Administration (EIA) menunjukkan data pasokan minyak AS sampai pekan yang berakhir (11/12) melonjak 0,97% mejadi 490,65 juta barel per hari. Level itu mendekati angka tertinggi pada April 2015 di mana saat itu pasokan minyak Negeri Paman Sam berada di level tertinggi dalam tiga dekade terakhir.

Di sisi lain, produksi shale oil AS juga kembali meningkat sebesar  0,13% menjadi 9,17 juta barel per hari dibandingkan dengan pekan sebelumnya sebesar 9,16 juta barel per hari. Stabilnya produksi shale oil AS bisa menjadi faktor penekan harga minyak sampai tahun depan.

Secara teknis pasar, Yoo Kyung Ha, analis komdoitas Dongbu Securities CO., mengatakan peningkatan pasokan minyak di AS  sudah jauh di atas ekspektasi pasar. Saat ini, pelaku pasar enggan mengambil posisi beli panjang sehingga sulit menurunkan pasokan minyak.

Adapun, 53% pelaku pasar masih yakin tren pelemahan untuk harga minyak WTI masih akan berlanjut atau belum menemui level bawahnya.

Where’s the floor? Is this the new normal? Answers have proven elusive and predictions unreliable as the oil market continues to lurch to and fro, though mostly down; oil is at an 11-year low.

Looking forward, bears and bulls abound – panicky and glued to OPEC’s every, somewhat disjointed move. For its part, the oil-producing cartel is grappling with an existential crisis. To be sure, OPEC isn’t dead and it hasn’t lost its market moving capabilities, but disagreements over how to apply those means – and a creeping suspicion that OPEC and non-OPEC pain thresholds are not mutually exclusive – have fractured the group.

As it stands, OPEC is producing roughly 31.70 mbpd – up 1 percent from November, and more than 5 percent from a year ago. Record volumes from Saudi Arabia and Iraq have buoyed production to date, but Iran’s oil industry is heating up as the country, and global investors, prepare for life after sanctions. According to OPEC’s 2016 demand projections, the cartel’s supply surplus could reach 860,000 bpd if current production rates hold.

Globally, signs of the glut are everywhere, and growing. In the U.S., crude inventories are at their highest level in 80 years; stockpiles are at 97 percent of capacity in Western Europe; and OECD oil inventories are more than a quarter of a million barrels above their five-year average. Onshore crude storage space may run out in the first quarter of 2016.

Related: Oil Price Scenarios For 2016

As a result, OPEC revenue is down some $500 billion a year, and counting. Saudi Arabia’s troubles are well documented – the kingdom’s budget deficit is expectedto come in around 20 percent of GDP this year, with a similar outlook for 2016. The International Monetary Fund estimates that Saudi Arabia will run out of cash in five years barring any oil price turnaround or drastic spending changes. That being said, they have cash – as do Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, who possess relatively large fiscal buffers.

Elsewhere, Venezuela is caught between China and a hard place. Inflation is in triple-digit territory and the country’s economy is primed for a world-worst 10 percent contraction this year. Recent elections have paved the way for major political reforms, but the country has few weapons in its arsenal to combat a prolonged period of low prices. Chinese financing has become a precarious crutchagainst stagnating production, and we can expect to see more of it as Venezuela feverishly attempts to boost production of heavy Orinoco oil.

Speaking of Chinese financing, OPEC minnow Ecuador owes the Asian giant upwards of $5 billion. Ecuador is faring better than Venezuela – it recentlyhonored a bond payment in full for the first time in its history – but the country’s long-term relationship with China is a case study in toxic friendships. Low oil prices, a strong dollar, and faltering diversification efforts, further limit President Rafael Correa’s hedge opportunities against both Chinese money and adisgruntled populace at home.

The current market turmoil has created a once in a generation opportunity for savvy energy investors.
Whilst the mainstream media prints scare stories of oil prices falling through the floor smart investors are setting up their next winning oil plays.

Back across the Atlantic, top African producers Algeria, Angola, and Nigeria have an average fiscal break-even price of nearly $110 per barrel; and all three have called for production quotas to be restored amid tumbling government revenues. Planned spending cuts, decent foreign reserves, and little foreign debt easeAlgeria’s struggle relative to its OPEC brethren, but its massive welfare program is worrying long-term. For its part, Angola is expanding its long-term sales deals with China, using its oil as collateral in return for infrastructure improvements.

Nigeria is in perhaps the most dire straits of the group – Libya aside. President Muhammadu Buhari would like to extract more revenue from the nation’s vital offshore oil fields, but his untimely review of the fiscal terms has sparked tensions among already anxious investors. The ongoing reform of the oil industry has already cost Nigeria more than $50 billion in investments, and threatens to deter some $150 billion more over the next 10 years. In all, Nigeria’s oil output coulddrop as much as 15 percent by 2017 as a result of cash shortages and investment gaps. Long-term, the focus is on the state’s non-oil economy, particularly its solid mineral sector, which has great potential for growth.

Related: These 29 Oil Companies Could See Their Credit Ratings Cut

The Saudi strategy has yet to bear itself out, but early indications suggest it is generating returns. Non-OPEC supply is expected to suffer its steepest decline in two decades in 2016, at a drop of nearly 0.5 mbpd. Moreover, U.S. shale producers are among the hardest hit. Oil production across the seven most prolific shale plays is expected to plummet a combined 116,000 bpd in January 2016.

Still, the strategy is not without sacrifice, and several OPEC members are struggling to find – and, more importantly, endure – that magical balance between non-OPEC pain, market share retention/growth, and self-inflicted damage. Their tipping points are nearly impossible to predict, but there will be more losers than winners in this game of brinksmanship.

By Colin Chilcoat of Oilprice.com

 

 

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi global disertai dengan menurunnya harga energi berdampak terhadap menurunnya iklim investasi disektor energi. Selama kurun 2015-2016 pertumbuhan ekonomi global diproyeksikan melambat.

Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) telah dua kali memangkas proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia pada tahun ini. IMF meramalkan pertumbuhan ekonomi global pada tahun ini hanya akan tumbuh 3,1 persen dan menjadi 3,6 persen pada tahun depan.

Perkembangan ekonomi dunia ini menunjukkan bahwa tahun 2015 dan tahun depan masih akan berada di persimpangan, karena beberapa faktor global.

Pertama, transformasi ekonomi China dari yang tadinya berbasis ekspor dan manufaktur kini beralih fokus lebih besar pada konsumsi dan jasa.

Kedua, penurunan harga komoditas.

Ketiga atau yang terakhir adalah rencana kenaikan suku bunga di Amerika Serikat (AS), yang bisa berdampak secara global dan menambah ketidakpastian ekonomi dunia. (CATATAN: dah terjadi)

Sejumlah negara emerging dan developing utama seperti China, India, Rusia, dan Brasil yang dalam beberapa tahun terakhir menjadi mesin pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia, diproyeksikan tahun depan masih mengalami perlambatan. Menurut IMF perlambatan ekonomi China akan berlanjut pada tahun depan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi pada 2015 dan 2016 hanya akan tumbuh 6,8% dan 6,3%.

Koreksi pertumbuhan juga dilakukan IMF untuk perekonomian India menjadi 7,3% pada tahun ini dan 7,5% pada tahun depan.  Untuk Asean 5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina, Thailand, dan Vietnam), IMF memangkas proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi Asean 5 menjadi 4,6% pada 2015 dan menjadi 4,9% pada 2016.

Sesungguhnya tanda-tanda perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi global sudah terefleksikan dalam harga komoditas energi yang cenderung menurun sejak kuartal III 2014. Sampai Desember 2015, harga minyak telah turun lebih dari 60%. Sementara itu harga gas telah menurun tidak kurang dari 52%.

Tahun 2015 juga ditandai dengan  masa paceklik bisnis minyak yang membuat kinerja perusahaan migas ikut jatuh. Harga minyak Indonesia sudah turun lebih dari 50% sepanjang semester pertama tahun ini dibandingkan dnegan periode sama tahun lalu. Kondisi ini menyebabkan kontraktor kontrak kerjasama migas (KKKS) memotong biaya investasinya tahun ini dari US$23,6 miliar menjadi US$20,2 miliar. Kegiatan ikutan lainnya seperti pengeboran juga ikut terpangkas.

Bagaimana dengan respon perusahaan migas? Tentu saja mereka serempak memotong ongkos produksi dan mengurangi atau menunda investasi mereka. Rata rata perusahaan migas memotong belanja modal hingga 20%.

Kecenderungan penurunan harga energi berdampak terhadap penurunan peringkat investasi sektor tersebut. Sejumlah lembaga rating memberikan peringkat yang lebih rendah kepada sektor energi dibandingkan sektor yang lainnya. Akibatnya, biaya investasi perusahaan energi, terutama yang bersumber dari utang, menjadi lebih mahal. Dalam perkembangannya, kecenderungan penurunan investasi sektor energi juga terjadi di Indonesia.

Kementerian Energi dan sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) mencatat realisasi investasi sektor energi selama sebelas bulan mencapai US$20,87 miliar atau sekitar 45% dari target US$45,59 miliar.

Dari total realisasi ini sektor minyak dan gas bumi menyumbang US$9,6 miliar, kemudian sektor energi baru terbarukan dan konservasi energi dengan investasi US$1,17 miliar. Lalu, sektor ketenagalistrikan sebesar US$6,8 miliar dan sektor batu bara capaian investasinya sebesar US$3,3 miliar.

Mencermati perkembangan beberapa indikator yang ada, prospek investasi sektor energi Indonesia untuk kurun 2015-2016 belum akan kembali pada tren normal. Dari sisi eksternal, Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) juga menyebutkan bahwa investasi di industri ini mengalami penurunan tajam saat ini.

Dalam outlook energi dunia yang dirilis IEA, investasi di bidang perminyakan akan menurun 20% tahun ini. Tren tersebut diperkirakan akan berlanjut pada 2016, menyusul adanya perkirakan bahwa harga minyak tidak mungkin kembali mencapai angka US$80 per barel sebelum akhir dekade ini.

Sejumlah proyek pemerintah di sektor energi seperti proyek pembangkit listrik 35.000 MW, pengembangan jaringan gas untuk sektor transportasi dan rumah tangga, dan pembangunan kilang pada satu sisi akan mendorong prospek investasi sektor energi dan tambang yang berbasis energi menjadi relatif lebih baik.

Akan tetapi pada sisi lain, potensi tersebut akan sulit dikonversi jika sejumlah hambatan investasi yang selama ini dikeluhkan oleh investor tidak segera direspons atau diselesaikan oleh pemerintah.

IKLIM INVESTASI

Ada tiga faktor yang berpengaruh pada iklim investasi, yakni menaikkan produksi minyak dan meningkatkan kegiatan eksplorasi serta tantangan di bidang hukum dan regulasi. Sejak puncak produksi minyak kedua di 1995 dengan produksi rata-rata 1,6 juta barel per hari, produksi minyak Indonesia terus mengalami penurunan.

Dari identifikasi yang dilakukan, permasalahan utama yang dihadapi pelaku usaha sebagian besar adalah masalah nonteknis seperti masalah harmonisasi regulasi, perizinan, dan pembebasan lahan.

Sebagian besar domain penyelesaian masalah tersebut berada di tangan pemerintah dan pemerintah daerah, bukan pelaku usaha. Karena itu, jika pemerintah tidak akomodatif terhadap keluhan dan kebutuhan pelaku usaha, prospek investasi sektor tambang dan energi Indonesia kemungkinan akan semakin menurun.

Pada situasi perlambatan ekonomi global, sebagian besar negara diproyeksikan berlomba memberikan berbagai kemudahan untuk menarik investasi masuk ke negara mereka. Dalam hal ini, hal yang sama seharusnya dilakukan oleh Pemerintah RI.

Sektor energi menjadi faktor penting sebagai pendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, karena itu perlu dikembangkan. Upaya peningkatan investasi di bidang migas hendaknya menjadi titik sentral dalam menjaga keberlanjutan produksi migas untuk mengoptimalkan penerimaan negara dan tingkat pengembalian investor.

Investasi migas merupakan investasi padat modal, padat teknologi dan berjangka panjang, sehingga diperlukan kesungguhan dalam penerapan semua ketentuan sesuai kontrak yang di sepakati.

Dari sisi fiskal, kontrak kerjasama dapat dibuat sedemikian rupa sehingga lebih menarik bagi investor, mengingat kendala semakin sulitnya mencari sumber-sumber migas baru, terutama di daerah frontier dan laut dalam dan juga kegiatan pengembangan baru yang memerlukan teknologi tinggi dan biaya investasi yang besar.

Pembentukan dana energi juga sangat penting untuk di realisasikan guna membangun ketahanan energi nasional pada 2016. Dana tersebut, nantinya dapat digunakan untuk eksplorasi, membangun energi terbarukan, riset, pendidikan SDM dan lain-lainnya.

Pembentukan dana energi ini  juga untuk mengejar ketertinggalan pembangunan energi terbarukan. Hal ini dirasa penting karena pemerintah bersungguh-sungguh menempatkan energi baru-terbarukan sebagai kekuatan sumber energi nasional dan menargetkan penggunaan sebesar 23% pada 2025.

*) Fahruddin Salim, Doktor Manajemen Bisnis; Dosen Program Magister Manajemen

fortune: Energy

Oil Bubbles Back Up

Vadim Zlotnikov, the chief market strategist at AllianceBernstein, has low expectations for 2016. His prediction: 5% to 7% total returns for the S&P 500. In the past we’ve had technology or real estate or China pushing the market upward. “Today it’s just not clear where we are going to find the next growth driver,” he says.

His favorite idea in today’s environment: integrated oil stocks. They pay good dividends, and even with lower oil prices, those dividends are sustainable, as oil companies are spending less on drilling, exploration, and other capital expenditures. “On top of that you’re getting a free option in case there is a geopolitical event that causes oil prices to spike,” he says.

BAD.12.15.15 6-oil-bubbleBack to Balance: The gap between supply and demand is falling, suggesting a price rebound in the offing.

Given how low crude prices are—they’ve fallen from $105 to $40 a barrel since July 2014—it’s arguable whether you would even need global upheaval to cause a spike. Small shifts in supply or demand can have an outsize impact, and it’s clear that surging supply in North Dakota and Texas contributed to depressed prices. New drilling has slowed—but global oil consumption still increased 2% in the third quarter, according to the International Energy Association.

OPEC production is always a wild card, but the IEA expects non-OPEC output to decline in 2016. If overall production is flat, it wouldn’t require much demand growth for a 25% increase in the price of oil. That’s exactly what traders are predicting in the futures market for a year from now. “Demand [for oil] has been resilient, so it’s all about supply,” says Jeremy Zirin, chief U.S. equity market strategist at UBS. His prediction: Oil will rebound to at least $60 a barrel.

That’s hardly a boom price, but it would pay off for oil-stock bargain hunters. History shows time and again that Exxon Mobil XOM -1.78% has been a winner. Yes, it has faced a double whammy, first with lower oil prices and then with heat over whether it misled on climate change (which the company denies). Sure, its profits have sagged, but for Exxon $20 billion in earnings is a bad year, and it will come back. In the meantime, investors are paid to wait: With the stock now down to $78 a share (from $97 in November 2014), its dividend yield is 3.7%.

PICKS:

  • Exxon Mobil
    Dividend Yield
  • 3.7%
  • TransCanada
  • 4.8%

Our other oil pick is more contrarian: TransCanada TRP -2.08% . The Obama administration’s long-delayed decision to reject the company’s Keystone XL pipeline dragged the stock down all year, from $49 to $31 a share. Robert Kwan, energy analyst with RBC Dominion Securities, thinks that even without Keystone the stock could reach $59 in a year. Add the 4.8% dividend yield, and you’d have a 100% total return. Earnings have been up in 2015 because of higher oil-pipeline earnings, and Kwan anticipates 13% profit growth in 2016 as the company is slated to open two gas pipelines in Mexico.

“It’s a stock trading near its 52-week low,” says Hollis Ghobrial, an analyst with Westwood Funds, which has a sizable TransCanada position. “It’s got a 5% yield. Management has [implied] 8% to 10% dividend growth through 2017. And you’ve got some other pipeline projects—one in Mexico—underpinning that growth. There’s a lot to like.”


 fortune

cnn: The crash in oil prices is fanning the flames of revolt against Saudi Arabia inside the walls of OPEC.

A war of words has broken out between OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia and disgruntled smaller oil producers like Venezuela and Algeria. The smaller countries want the cartel to hit the brakes on production to help lift depressed oil prices — and their own struggling economies.

As the leading oil producer, the Saudis hold enormous sway over the oil cartel. Their long term bet is that by keeping oil prices low, they will squeeze American shale oil producers out of the game. That way, the Saudis can again regain market share lost to the U.S.

Just 10 years ago, Saudi Arabia was the world’s largest oil producing nation, churning out nearly twice as much crude oil as the U.S. But American output has skyrocketed in recent years thanks to the shale revolution, which has completely reshaped the global energy equation. Today the U.S. produces nearly as much as Saudi Arabia.

The onslaught of U.S. oil has sent prices spiraling from over $100 a barrel in mid-2014 to around$40 a barrel currently.

 

Weaker OPEC members face off with Saudi Arabia

The collapse in oil prices is especially hurting less affluent OPEC members like Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Nigeria and Venezuela. They are all but begging the Saudis to shift strategy — but so far their calls have gone unanswered.

“OPEC has never been more divided,” said Fadel Gheit, an Oppenheimer analyst who has been closely covering the oil industry for 35 years.

Venezuela’s oil minister warned that oil could plunge to $25 if OPEC doesn’t act fast. Algeria has called for a price floor, while Ecuador’s oil minister said the only way to balance the market is to cut production.

Nigeria’s former central bank governor Muhammad Sanusi II recently told CNN that Saudi Arabia’s decision to flood world markets with oil is a mistake. “It does not help them and it does not help anyone,” he said.

 

Revolt could destroy OPEC

All the bellicosity from OPEC members is coming as the group is preparing for what should be an awkward gathering in Vienna on December 4 to decide on output. Few expect Saudi Arabia to cave to the demands of others, but get ready for more verbal fireworks.

The deep dissension threatens to destroy OPEC, at least as we know it.

“Of course, that’s a risk,” said Philipp Chladek, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst who covers the oil and gas industry in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

 

Saudis unlikely to budge

The 60% plunge in oil prices since June 2014 has slashed OPEC revenue by nearly $500 billion a year, according to the International Energy Agency.

On Monday, Saudi Arabia’s official news agency reported that the country is ready to “cooperate with all oil producing and exporting countries.”

But the comments didn’t give any details or signal a new willingness to cut output and the kingdom has made similar remarks in the past.

A Saudi ministerial source told CNN’s John Defterios the Saudis will not budge if Russia continues to produce nearly 11 million barrels per day, Mexico is not part of the non-OPEC equation and if Iraq refuses to live by an OPEC quota.

In other words, the status quo looks intact.

 

The Saudis are joined by rich neighbors like Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. These countries have the financial firepower to withstand cheap oil — at least for a few more years.

The Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, can also theoretically cut back on production. But they fear doing so will only cede more market share to the U.S., Russia and rival OPEC countries.

 

U.S. shale has reshaped the energy landscape

The real game changer here has been the U.S.

OPEC didn’t see the shale revolution coming and now it lacks appealing options to respond to the resulting oil glut.

OPEC also seems to have underestimated shale’s resiliency and flexibility. Last year’s decision to keep production steady has not been a knockout punch to shale. And shale producers remain ready to ramp up production as soon as prices go higher.

“Shale technology has changed this industry forever. It’s not going to disappear. It can only get better because it’s based on technology. Time is not on OPEC’s side,” said Gheit, the Oppenheimer analyst.

The Saudis would love to get U.S. producers to agree to stop flooding the market with oil. The problem is that the U.S. energy industry, unlike OPEC, is not a cartel designed to fix prices.

“There is no Mr. Shale that Saudi Arabia can call. In the U.S., it’s everybody on their own,” said Bloomberg’s Chladek.

–CNN emerging markets editor/anchor John Defterios contributed to this report.

 Jakarta -Pada hari ini, harga minyak dunia masih melanjutkan kejatuhannya hingga titik terendah. Minyak produksi Amerika Serikat (AS) jenis West Texas Intermediate (WTI) turun ke bawah US$ 37 per barel untuk pertama kalinya sejak krisis keuangan global 2008/2009 lalu.

Kondisi penurunan harga minyak ini disebabkan oleh produksi minyak yang terus melimpah, danOrganization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) memutuskan untuk tetap mempertahankan produksinya.

Dilansir dari Reuters, Selasa (8/12/2015), harga kontrak minyak jenis Brent turun 60 sen menjadi US$ 40,13 per barel, sementara harga WTI turun 79 sen menjadi US$ 36,86 per barel.

“Penurunan harga ini karena adanya fundamental baru setelah keputusan OPEC,” jelas riset JBC Energy.

Bila harga minyak Brent turun ke bawah US$ 36 per barel, berarti akan ada tingkat harga terendah baru sejak 2004.

Sejumlah bank seperti Goldman Sachs memperkirakan, harga minyak bisa menyentuh US$ 20 per barel tahun ini. Semua ini akibat pasokan yang berlebih.

(dnl/hns)

marketwatch: As crude-oil futures are descending toward seven-year lows, U.S. shale-oil producers are getting walloped.

West Texas Intermediate crude-oil futures for January delivery CLF6, +0.29% dropped 5.4% to below $38 a barrel Monday and were looking at their worst levels since 2009, after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries decided last week to keep crude-oil production at its current levels despite a price plunge of more than 60% from the 2014 summer peaks.

 

 

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest oil producer and exporter, “is clearly betting on two things: a pickup in 2016 global demand, and the long-awaited impact of production cuts from nonconventional U.S. projects,” said Katrina Lamb, head of investment strategy and research at MV Financial.

‘We believe Saudi Arabia will stay the course, forcing high-priced production out of the market.’

Jay Hatfield, co-founder and president of InfraCap and portfolio manager of its MLP exchange-traded fund

Since the November 2014 OPEC meeting, the Saudis have made their strategy to defend market share regardless of price very clear.

And it is a strategy that appears to be working, according to Jay Hatfield, co-founder and president of InfraCap and portfolio manager of its MLP exchange-traded fundAMZA, -11.84% AMZA, -11.84%

“We believe Saudi Arabia will stay the course, forcing high-priced production out of the market,” he said in recent comments.

Hatfield said the Saudi’s share of global production has edged up to about 10.5% currently from 10.4% in April 2015, while the U.S.’s share has declined to 9.5% from 10.1% over that period.

On Monday, U.S. monthly government data showed that total domestic shale-oil production is expected to fall by 116,000 barrels a day to 4.861 million barrels a day in January.

“Production is declining in the United States,” Brian Milne, energy editor and product manager at Schneider Electric. “Producers have different breakeven price points, but under $40-a-barrel oil will force some out of the market.”

Winners and losers

Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service, pointed out some other “big losers” from the oil-price plunge.

They include mostly Master Limited Partnerships that invested in upstream oil logistics, such as transportation and other infrastructure, as well as the banks that lent money to high-leverage domestic producers, he said.

“Canada with expensive oil sands’ output, and Venezuela, are two of the biggest losers” and high-cost producers in Northern Africa, Angola, Southeast Asia, and the North Sea are also suffering, said Kloza.

But eventually, oil refiners may become the big winners.

Hatfield expects demand for motor gasoline to grow by 3% in 2016 as consumers “continue to respond to lower retail gasoline prices.”

And with higher demand for the fuel, he’s looking for the U.S. to consume an additional 250,000 barrels of oil a day, which will help to “balance the global oil market.”

Meanwhile, Kloza said refiners are likely to benefit in the spring “when crude is widely available and [refinery] maintenance begins.” Refinery maintenance tends to choke supplies of refined products, such as gasoline.

In the mid-February to mid-May period, he expects retail gasoline prices to climb by 60 cents to 80 cents a gallon from prices possibly in the $1.75 to $1.99 range.

per tgl 07 Des 2015:

HONG KONG. Minyak tenggelam di bawah US$40 per barel di tengah spekulasi berlimpahnya pasokan global akan berlanjut setelah OPEC meninggalkan strategi lama yang membatasi produksi untuk mengendalikan harga.

Harga kontrak minyak jenis West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman Januari turun sebanyak 77 sen menjadi U$ 39,20 per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange dan berada di U$ 39,53 pada pukul 08:48 pagi waktu Hong Kong.

Kontrak minyak WTI turun U$ 1.11 ke $ 39,97 pada hari Jumat (5/12). Volume semua minyak berjangka yang diperdagangkan hampir tiga kali dari rata-rata 100-hari. Harga minyak telah turun 26% tahun ini.

Presiden Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu mengatakan pada Jumat lalu setelah pertemuan di Wina bahwa Organisasi Negara-negara Pengekspor Minyak akan terus memompa sekitar 31,5 juta barel per hari. Kelompok tersebut menyisihkan kuota produksi sebesar 30 juta barel per hari, menembus target dalam 18 bulan terakhir, sampai para anggota berkumpul kembali pada bulan Juni tahun depan.

Minyak telah merosot sekitar 40% sejak Arab Saudi memimpin keputusan OPEC pada bulan November 2014 untuk mempertahankan produksi dan mempertahankan pangsa pasar terhadap biaya produsen minyak shale yang lebih tinggi. Iran berusaha untuk meningkatkan ekspor minyak mentah mereka tahun depan ketika sanksi internasional atas program nuklirnya dihapus.

Minyak jenis Brent untuk pengiriman Januari turun sebanyak 25 sen, atau 0,6%, ke $ 42,75 per barel di bursa ICE Futures Europe exchange. Minyak mentah acauan Eropa lebih besar U$ 3,26 dari WTI.

http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/minyak-terus-tenggelam-ke-u-3920-per-barel

Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID

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