Undue optimism in markets carries the risk of a painful reckoning, but unfounded pessimism can be just as damaging as an excess of confidence.Today’s market is running just that risk: growing concern over the falling price of oil threatens to outweigh the many positive indicators across most other asset classes.
The risks of pessimism are especially acute at the top of a market. As the economic cycle matures, it is natural for investors to seek the early signs of a reversal, enabling them to take profits just as asset prices come off their peaks.
Today, many are using the declining price of oil for just that purpose, as an early-warning proxy for other investments.
This is understandable until you consider that of the two key inputs into oil prices – demand driven by an expanding global economy, and supply relative to that demand – it is the latter that is driving prices down.
US shale extraction has prompted a long-term shift in the supply dynamic; Iran has newly restored access to Western purchasers, and neither Russia nor Saudi Arabia has yet been persuaded of the merits of cutting back supply.
The International Energy Agency estimates that demand for oil actually increased, by almost 2pc, in 2015 from the previous year, confounding the view that prices are mirroring a contracting global economy. This is what makes the current focus on the oil price alone so difficult to understand.
Conditions have been good for a long time in credit markets, with defaults at a historically very low level, and as the cycle ages we would expect them to increase gradually. But this does not have to happen in Q1 2016 – monetary policy remains accommodative, earnings and labour markets are solid, and consumer balance sheets are in good shape (helped, in fact, by the increase in discretionary income that a low oil price delivers). All these factors point to modest growth, but unnecessarily negative sentiment driven by concern around oil could lead investors to ignore them.
China’s slowdown is of course a headwind, but indications elsewhere are broadly positive. Inflation is still well below target but eurozone growth is holding up, bolstered in part by stimulus measures from the European Central Bank and spending by governments. While European exports will, of course, be affected by declining Chinese demand, this should not be overstated: 7pc of eurozone exports go to China, but trade with the UK is double that figure and 16pc of exports go to Asian countries other than China and Japan.
We don’t see a case for the sustained sell-off in global equities we’ve seen since the beginning of the year, and we believe there is scope for moderate gains in corporate credit on the basis that markets are overpricing fears of recession. There are particular opportunities in European corporate credit: Europe is still in the expansionary phase of its cycle, unlike the US, and has low exposure to the energy sector, which accounts for just 1pc of the domestic high-yield market.
Naturally, a material pick-up in defaults in the energy industry over the next two or three years should be expected, but non-energy sectors are in good shape – partly as a result of declining energy prices. Low prices, we should remember, are good for consumers and good for countries that are net importers of oil.
The big headline risk is that the undue concentration on the oil market turns into sustained contagion. We are already seeing evidence of this: the high-yield bond sell-off before Christmas, legitimate in the case of energy firms, spilt over into other sectors and credit conditions have been on a tightening trend ever since. That could soon lead to a long-term general contraction as investors, banks and business leaders alike batten down the hatches.
As a rule, financial markets should reflect what is happening in the economy and not the other way around, but experience has taught us that the behaviour of markets can become a self-fulfilling prophecy: because prices are going down, investors think something important must be happening and reduce their exposures, business confidence declines further and it’s harder for anyone to make an investment case.
Functioning normally, the market should be a barometer of what’s happening in the real economy, as the variety of inputs that determine profitability or otherwise for businesses feed through to asset prices. But, given the reliance of the corporate world on investment capital, it is possible for interruptions to markets to have a direct impact on the economy.
When that happens, tightening of financial conditions – such as a fall in the stock market or a rise in the cost of borrowing – coupled with other bearish indications such the appreciation of gold, directly influence the amount and affordability of investment capital available.
No thoughtful observer of the market would argue that conditions are unlikely to worsen over the medium term. Defaults have been abnormally low in credit markets for a long time and we are getting to the point where they will pick up, especially in the energy sector.
Yet that in itself is not a justification for panic: if defaults do increase, an orderly market should be able to absorb them, reflecting that a higher run rate would be a return to typical conditions, not a sign that the market is about to enter a cyclical downturn. But the interests of an orderly market are not served by an illogical concentration of sentiment on a single input.
With Mario Draghi’s recent flagging of a further rate cut in March prompting only a temporary rally, it appears that we may look in vain for another successful intervention by central banks.
Our best hope of averting a premature turn in the cycle is that investors do not overreact to oil prices and look at the broad fundamentals rather than the behaviour of one supply-driven asset.
Andrew Wilson is EMEA chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Asset Management
time.com: According to a new report
About a third of the world’s publicly-traded oil companies are at high risk of going bankrupt this year, according to a new report out Tuesday.
Consulting and audit firm Deloitte put out its findings after closely examining 500 publicly-traded oil and natural gas exploration and production companies worldwide. The threat these companies face is a result of crude prices hovering near 10-year lows, which has already prompted firms to slash their budgets and staff.
The 175 or so companies most at risk have more than $150 billion in debt,according to Reuters’ report on the Deloitte study, and they’re having trouble generating cash given the decreased value of secondary stock offerings and asset sales.
Moreover, while many firms were able to cushion the blow of collapsing prices last year by virtue of having sold their output forward, the forward curve in futures markets this year offers no such comfort. Brief hopes that the world’s largest producers, Russia and Saudi Arabia, would cooperate to cut output and end the glut were dashed early Tuesday after a meeting between their respective ministers ended without a binding agreement.
Despite its doom and gloom, the report offered a silver lining to one segment of the industry: oilfield service providers that supply the workers and equipment needed to drill wells. Because servicers have lower capital costs than producers, there have been fewer bankruptcy filings in their ranks. Only 14 of the 53 energy companies in the United States that filed for bankruptcy last quarter were service providers. Deloitte said that trend is expected to continue—at least in the short term.
They may end up being right, but they were all way too early.
Activist investors are that special breed of hedge fund managers known for their aggressive forays into situations few others would touch (especially if much, much debt can be issued) usually demanding management, business or board changes. And while sometimes they make a killing thanks to their aggressiveness, other times they themselves are crushed.
Like this time.
Activist investment in the energy space has been nothing short of a total disaster: as Reuters reports, those “brave enough to have ventured into the volatile energy sector are paying a heavy price for their courage, stuck with hefty paper losses and no near-term recovery in sight.”
Among the more prominent names pounded in recent months are Corvex Management, Elliott Associates and ValueAct Capital – they are among the largest and most prominent activist firms that have seen the value of their energy holdings tumble in step with sliding crude prices and remain exposed to the price rout.
Southeastern Asset Management, an investment management firm and occasional activist, has seen the value of its energy bets fall $2.7 billion in the last year, which include holdings in Chesapeake Energy Corp and Consol Energy.
Corvex’s $1 billion holding in natural gas pipeline company Williams Companies worth around 14 percent of the firm’s total portfolio, represents the largest current exposure of any activist fund to a single energy stock, according to quarterly filings. Corvex’s stake in Williams – which has an agreement to be purchased by pipeline rival Energy Transfer – lost $1.1 billion over last year, filings show. Corvex declined to comment.
The second largest exposure is Elliott’s $863 million stake in oil and gas company Hess Corp which is worth around 10 percent of Elliott’s portfolio, according to filings. The stake was valued at as much as $1.7 billion in the third quarter of 2014, filings show. Elliott declined to comment.
Fir Tree Partners lost $259 million, Symmetric.io data show, among various energy investments including Williams.
ValueAct, a shareholder in Halliburton since 2012, disclosed last January that it bought a stake in Baker Hughes, saying at the time that its belief in the deal was underpinned by the drop in oil prices. The two holdings together comprise nearly 10 percent of ValueAct’s total portfolio and lost a combined $656 million in value in the course of last year, Symmetric.io data show. ValueAct declined to comment.
They are not the only ones: Thirteen activist investors with the largest fund exposure to the energy sector have suffered a combined $9.2 billion in unrealized paper losses in 2015, according to quarterly filings analyzed by hedge fund data firm Symmetric.io.
But nobody’s combined loss is as big as that of Carl Icahn: the sum of the one-year losses includes a $2.8 billion drop in the value of Carl Icahn’s on seven energy industry investments, Symmetric.io data shows. While that is the biggest loss for any activist investor, Icahn invests his own money and can ride out the oil downturn for as long as he wants. Others do not have that luxury.
One has already shut down: Orange Capital, headed by a person who some say spends more time engaging in twitter spats than managing money, is already shutting down in part because of its exposure to a Canadian oil and gas driller.
“This is a cyclical industry. Everyone knows it comes back. But not everyone has the time to wait it out,” said Kai Liekefett, a partner at law firm Vinson & Elkins who is head of its activism practice. “The problem is that activist hedge funds have to answer to their own investors, and the question is whether they will give them the time.”
The problem for hedge funds, many of whom have investors who can demand their money back on a quarterly basis, was that many just had not foreseen such a long, steep fall in crude prices even after they began their slide in June 2014. “It is possible that certain activist investors in oil and gas stocks misjudged the severity and speed of the drop in oil and gas prices,” said Osmar Abib, global head of oil and gas banking at Credit Suisse.
Of course, by now everyone knows that the meaning of the word “hedge” in “hedge fund” is mostly for show, and not to actually, you know, hedge in case something unanticipated happens… like the biggest commodity rout in history.
Here are the casualties:
Singapore, Feb 16, 2016 (AFP)
Oil prices rose on Tuesday with Brent breaking past $34 a barrel on expectations that energy heavyweights Russia and Saudi Arabia will discuss the global oversupply issue in a Doha meeting.
At around 0330 GMT, European benchmark Brent crude for April delivery was trading $1.15, or 3.44 percent, higher at $34.54.
Its US counterpart West Texas Intermediate for March delivery was up $1.33, or 4.52 percent, at $30.77 compared to its Friday close. There was no settlement in the New York Mercantile Exchange on Monday due to a US public holiday.
“As representatives from major oil producers fly to Doha to meet, the bullish flames get fanned, causing prices to remain strong,” said Daniel Ang, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.
“As much as we continue to believe that this is yet another meeting that would yield nothing, the markets remain wary of any sudden agreement that major oil producers could come to.”
Oil prices have been depressed since last peaking in mid-2014 due to oversupply, sluggish demand and slowing economies. They are currently down about 70 percent from June 2014 levels.
Adding to the pressure on prices is the resumption of Iranian oil exports this year after international sanctions linked to its nuclear programme were eased by world powers.
Bloomberg News reported that Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi was expected to speak privately with his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak in Doha on Tuesday.
“It does seem like Russia has been invited into the inner circle of OPEC countries which was vastly different from a year ago.” said Ang.
“However, we still remain sceptical for an agreement to be struck between those who are attending the meeting.”
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA- Penurunan harga minyak mentah hingga di bawah US$30 per barel pada awal tahun ini, bahkan tercatat yang terendah dalam 12 tahun terakhir, telah menyeret hampir seluruh komoditas.
Saat ini, harga minyak masih terbenam di kisaran US$30 per barel.
Banjir pasokan minyak dibarengi dengan pelemahan permintaan di pasar global menjadi pemicu utama anjloknya harga minyak.
Negara-negara produsen utama yang tergabung dalam OPEC enggan memangkas produksi. Sementara itu, Iran bakal menambah volume ekspor minyak setelah sanksi ekonomi dari AS dan sekutunya dicabut. AS untuk pertama kalinya menyatakan akan menjadi eksportir minyak.Padahal, selama ini AS merupakan importir minyak.
Dari sisi permintaan, China sebagai negara dengan perekonomian terbesar kedua di dunia mengalami perlambatan sehingga menurunkan pembelian minyak.
Pelemahan harga minyak memberikan sentimen negatif terhadap seluruh sektor terutama komoditas. Para produsen minyak pun memilih efisiensi dengan me mangkas belanja modal dan operasional.
Akhir-akhir ini bahkan sedang ramai diperbincangkan soal ‘kiamat minyak’ atau oilmageddon. Sebuah istilah yang dipakai oleh analis dari Citi Group Jonathan Stubbs terkait dengan perang harga minyak saat ini.
Stubbs menyatakan ada empat hal yang saling terkait yang menjadi sentimen negatif bagi pasar global yaitu dolar AS yang terus menguat, harga komoditas yang terus merosot termasuk minyak, perlambatan perdagangan global, dan perekonomian negara berkembang melambat.
Ketika harga minyak rendah, seharusnya konsumen senang karena pengeluaran mereka akan turun.
Apalagi sebagian besar penghuni bumi merupakan konsumen, hanya sebagian kecil yang menjadi produsen.
Ketika harga minyak rendah, tentu maskapai penerbangan, perusahaan perkapalan, sektor logistik, pembangkit berbahan baku minyak, dan pabrikan yang menggunakan bahan baku minyak tentu akan senang. Namun, dampak dari harga minyak ini merembet ke seluruh sektor terutama harga komoditas.
Pelemahan harga minyak ini seperti lingkaran setan yang sulit diputus karena dampaknya merembet kemana-mana. Harga komoditas pertanian dan pertambangan pun anjlok.
Lalu di mana posisi Indonesia dengan pelemahan harga minyak ini? Indonesia yang merupakan importir minyak sedikit beruntung dengan kondisi harga ini.
Hampir 50% kebutuhan minyak di Tanah Air masih diimpor. Kebutuhan minyak mentah di Indonesia sekitar 1,6 juta barel per hari, sedangkan produksi di dalam negeri sekitar 700.000—800.000 barel per hari. Artinya, Indonesia akan memeroleh harga yang lebih murah.
Apakah Indonesia diuntungkan?
Tidak sepenuhnya, justru lebih banyak memperoleh dampak negatif dari pelemahan harga minyak ini. Indonesia selama ini menjadi
eksportir komoditas perkebunan seperti karet, minyak sawit, biji kakao, kopi serta produk pertambangan seperti mineral dan
Perolehan devisa sektor tersebut terpangkas signifikan. Pendapatan sektor migas otomatis bakal turun.
Dalam APBN 2016 ditetapkan harga acuan minyak Indonesia (Indonesian crude price/ICP) US$50 per barel dengan target produksi 827.000 bph.
Jika harga minyak turun maka produksi pun turun. Jika ICP US$30 per barel, maka proyeksi produksi turun menjadi 790.000 bph.
Lalu, apakah akan terjadi ‘kiamat minyak’ seperti skenario Stubbs?
Saya rasa tidak.
Harga minyak pasti akan menemukan titik keseimbangan baru. Ketika harga rendah seperti saat ini, beberapa produsen minyak akan mengurangi produksi terutama bagi mereka yang biaya pengeborannya tinggi.
Biaya rata-rata produksi minyak di Indonesia misalnya sekitar US$30 per barel. Ketika harga terus berada di kisaran US$30 per barel, tentu para kontraktor kontrak kerja sama mengerem produksi.
Dalam beberapa waktu, pasokan minyak akan kembali normal dan harga pun bakal membaik. Harga minyak mungkin akan mencapai titik terendah kemudian merangkak naik.
Dalam perekonomian global yang dinamis, tentu ekonomi tidak selalu tumbuh selamanya. Pun sebaliknya, harga minyak akan kembali naik meskipun lambat sambil memberikan waktu bagi para pelaku bisnis untuk menyesuaikan diri.
marketwatch: U.S. stocks finished Tuesday’s volatile session little changed as a rally in materials was offset by losses in the energy sector fueled by a fresh drop in oil prices amid a global stock selloff.
The S&P 500 SPX, -0.07% closed off by a point, or less than 0.1%, at 1,852. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.08% closed off 12.67 points, or less than 0.1%, at 16,014. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.35% ended the day down 14.99 points, or 0.4%, at 4,268.
All three benchmarks opened in negative territory, turned positive and later released their gains as oil prices skidded again, after dipping in and out of positive territory in the morning.
The energy sector was the S&P’s worst performer Tuesday, down 2.5%, followed by telecommunications and financials. Energy giant Chevron Corp. CVX, -0.08% was leading the Dow industrials decliners.
An earlier rally in the tech sector, which helped lift the main indexes, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq, lost steam as the day wore on. The tech selloff over the past two sessions had battered the so-called FANG stocks: Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google parent Alphabet.
On Tuesday, the FANGs pushed higher in the morning but lost those gains in the afternoon. Facebook FB, -0.28% closed down 0.2%, Amazon AMZN, -1.24% fell 1.2%, and Alphabet GOOG, -0.09% GOOGL, -0.45% lost 0.7%. The lone outlier was Netflix NFLX, +3.37% which gained 3.4%.
“The fear is palpable,” said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist at Capitol Securities Management, pointing to the heightened volatility in the stock market. “You feel smart for three seconds and then you get humbled again.”
Pressure on oil prices and continuing worries about a slowdown in global economic growth were behind a stock selloff that hit markets across the world earlier, analysts said. It began in Japan, where the Nikkei Stock Average NIK, -5.40% closed more than 5% lower, its biggest decline since 2013, and the 10-year Japanese benchmark yield TMBMKJP-10Y, -163.32% fell into negative territory for the first time ever.
Global markets are more sensitive to moves in Japanese stocks this week, as Japan is the only significant Asian market open while China’s stock market remains closed throughout the week for the celebration of Lunar New Year, said Diane Jaffee, a portfolio manager at TCW.
Otherwise, stocks continued the recent trend of moving in tandem with the gyrations in oil prices.
Oil prices CLH6, -4.51% leaned higher earlier in the day, as they shrugged off a downbeat report from the International Energy Agency, but tumbled again in the afternoon following a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that cut its 2016 price forecasts. Brent oil LCOJ6, -6.39% also fell.
Companies in the energy space with balance-sheet issues continue to get severely punished, said Tim Anderson, managing director at MND Partners. He cited Chesapeake Energy corp. CHK, -4.41% which slid 4.4% Tuesday on top of Monday’s 33% plunge, and Williams Companies Inc. WMB, +7.35% which recovered 7.4% Tuesday after a 35% loss Monday.
If the “quality names” in the oil sector, namely “big multinationals positioned to survive any shakeout,” can outperform the commodity “today, and maybe throughout the week it could be an early sign of a change in sentiment toward the sector,” Anderson said.
Bank stocks got pounded both in the U.S. XLF, -0.15% and in Europe FX7, -3.97%amid worries about the impact of record-low interest rates and deteriorating credit conditions on banks’ balance sheets. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS, -0.67% and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM, -0.60% were among the Dow industrials’ leading decliners.
Yellen ahead: Tuesday’s moves come ahead of the marquee event for U.S. markets this week: Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s semiannual testimony before House and Senate committees on Wednesday and Thursday.
“The market is starting to price out any more rate hikes from the Fed in 2016, let alone at the March meeting. Anything from Janet Yellen that confirms or denies that thinking will see markets react as the feeling that the Fed acted too early in December continues to grow,” said James Hughes, chief market analyst at GKFX, in a note.
Economic data: A report found U.S. job openings, known as JOLTS, jumped to 5.6 million in December, the second-highest on record. Yellen has said she pays close attention to the quit rate, a proxy of worker confidence, included in the report.
But inventories at U.S. wholesalers fell in December for the third straight month, another sign companies cut back on restocking toward the end of 2015 amid softer sales.
HONG KONG kontan. Harga kontrak minyak dunia kembali naik sebelum dirilisnya data cadangan minyak mingguan AS, Selasa (9/2). Mengutip data Bloomberg, pagi tadi, harga kontrak minyak jenis West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengantaran Maret naik sebesar 61 sen menjadi US$ 30,30 per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange.
Pada pukul 08.45 waktu Hong Kong, harga kontrak yang sama berada di level US$ 30,16 per barel.
Pada Senin (8/2), harga kontrak minyak tertekan hingga US$ 1,20 menjadi US$ 29,69 sebarel. Ini merupakan kontraksi pertama harga minyak di bawah US$ 30 sejak 2 Februari lalu.
Berdasarkan hasil survei Bloomberg, cadangan minyak AS kemungkinan akan naik sebesar 3,2 juta barel pada pekan lalu. Data resmi mengenai cadangan minyak ini akan dirilis Energy Information Administration pada Rabu besok.
“Saat ini merupakan waktu yang volatil dan sulit bagi minyak. Pasar akan terus mengalami kelebihan suplai dalam beberapa bulan ke depan. Ada faktor Iran dan belum ada pemangkasan produksi yang signifikan di AS. Cadangan minyak sangat tinggi, yang artinya minyak masih akan terus tertekan,” papar Ric Spooner, chief analyst CMC Markets di Sydney.
Sementara itu, harga kontrak minyak jenis Brent untuk pengantaran April turun US$ 1,18 atau 3,5% menjadi US$ 32,88 per barel di ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Harga minyak sempat melonjak US$35 per barel setelah Rusia menyatakan OPEC dan negara produsen minyak lain akan bertemu untuk membahas volume produksi.
Minyak Brent sempat melonjak 8,28% ke harga US$35,84 per barel sebelum mempertipis penguatan menjadi 4,29% ke US$34,52 per barel pada pukul 04.56 WIB. WTI sempat menembus US$34,8 per barel sebelum diperdagangkan menguat 4,37% ke US$33,71 per barel.
Pemicu lonjakan harga minyak adalah pernyataan Menteri Energi Rusia Alexander Novak tentang rencana pembicaraan antara OPEC dan negara produsen minyak non-OPEC tentang volume produksi.
Novak mengatakan Arab Saudi telah mengajukan proposal untuk memangkas hingga 5% volume produksi minyak global dalam pertemuan OPEC sebelumnya. Pertemuan OPEC Selanjutkan akan digelar pada Juni.
“Tanpa pernyataan dari Arab Saudi, ini cuma gosip. Sat hal yang saya yakin, harga tidak akan bertahan di sini. Jika berita ini benar, minyak akan terus naik dan jika tidak bisa kembali ke US$26 per barel,” kata Mike Wittner dari Societe Generale kepada Bloomberg.
Negara-negara produsen yang tergabung dalam OPEC saat ini memproduksi minyak melebihi kuota, khususnya Arab Saudi yang terus memompa minyak untuk mempertahankan market share menghadapi produsen shale di Amerika Serikat.
Namun, negara-negara OPEC menyangkal ada rencana pertemuan terkait produksi antara OPEC dengan negara produsen minyak lain. Empat perwakilan OPEC menyatakan tidak pernah mendengar kabar soal rencana diskusi tersebut.
Reli dalam 3 hari terakhir memangkas penurunan harga minyak sejak pergantian tahun menjadi 10%. Harga minyak sempat menyentuh level terendah sejak 2003 pada 2016 tertekan penurunan permintaan dari China dan suplai tambahan dari Iran.
Washington, Jan 26, 2016 (AFP)
The World Bank warned Tuesday that slowing emerging-market economies were hampering an oil recovery, and prices could sink further in a blow to a “fragile” global economy.
Crude oil in 2016 is projected to come in at $37 a barrel, down from its October estimate of $51, the World Bank said in a new quarterly report.
“A faster-than-expected slowdown in major emerging markets economies — especially if combined with financial stress — could further reduce commodity prices considerably, setting back growth in commodity exporters and the global economy,” it said in the Commodity Markets Outlook report.
Oil prices fell below $30 a barrel in mid-January to lows last seen more than 12 years ago amid a global oversupply and weakening demand.
The World Bank recently downgraded the growth projections for emerging-market and developing economies, after they slowed to a 3.3 percent pace last year, their weakest showing since 2010.
Emerging-market economies have been the main drivers of commodity demand growth since 2000, a reason why their weakening growth prospects are weighing on commodity prices, the World Bank said.
“Low commodity prices are a double-edged sword, where consumers in importing countries stand to benefit while producers in net exporting countries suffer,” said Ayhan Kose, director of the Bank’s Development Prospects Group.
“It takes time for the benefits of lower commodity prices to be transformed into stronger economic growth among importers, but commodity exporters are feeling the pain right away.”
The World Bank explained its stiff 27.5 percent downgrade on 2016 oil prices reflects a number of supply and demand factors that emerged in the past three months.
US oil production has shown greater resilience due to cost cuts and efficiency gains, it said.
Other factors cited include the “sooner-than-expected” resumption of Iranian oil exports after international sanctions were lifted and mild winter weather in the northern hemisphere that reduced demand for heating.
Oil prices, which fell by 47 percent in 2015, are expected to decline at a slower pace, by an additional 27 percent this year, the report said.
“The sharp oil price drop in early 2016 does not appear fully warranted by fundamental drivers of oil demand and supply, and is likely to partly reverse,” it said.
A recovery in the market would be gradual, the World Bank predicted.
It projected oil prices would rise to $48 a barrel in 2017, but that remains still well below $104 in 2013 before the market began its nosedive in the middle of the following year.
Singapore, Jan 22, 2016 (AFP)
Oil prices surged past $30 a barrel in Asia Friday after the European Central Bank (ECB) signalled further stimulus measures to help the struggling eurozone economy, but analysts expect oversupply woes to limit gains.
Remarks by ECB chief Mario Draghi that possible additional monetary stimulus measures could come as soon as March lifted global markets and brought a measure of joy after weeks of painful losses.
At around 0730 GMT, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for March delivery was up $1.31, or 4.44 percent, at $30.84 a barrel. Brent rose $1.52, or 5.2 percent, to $30.77.
On Thursday, Brent piled on almost five percent and WTI jumped more than four percent after Draghi said there were “no limits to how far we are willing to deploy our policy instruments” in a signal that more stimulus could be coming.
The black gold was also given a boost by a report showing US stockpiles did not rise last week as much as expected.
Earlier in the week, WTI sank to as low as $26.19 and Brent tumbled below $28 — both at more than 12-year lows.
Crude prices have been hammered the past three weeks, falling about 75 percent in 18 months on a supply glut, weak demand, overproduction and a slowing global economy.
Adding to downside pressure is the return of Iranian crude into the market after the lifting of Western sanctions, offsetting any output cuts from other countries.
Analysts said however it was still unclear if the ECB-fuelled rebound will hold.
Bernard Aw, market strategist at IG Markets in Singapore, said: “If market participants piled into oil because of ECB stimulus hopes, then the upmove will not be sustainable given that the supply glut will re-exert itself sooner rather than later.”
He cautioned against expectations that oil prices have already hit bottom.
“It’s the end of the week, and for the past three weeks, the markets have wrong-footed analysts who say that we are going to see a rebound,” Aw added.
The National Iranian Oil Company has said it had ordered an increase in output of 500,000 barrels per day after the sanctions were removed Sunday.
BMI Research said the weakness in commodity prices since the start of the year “reinforces our view that 2016 will be another tough year for commodity markets and that a sustained recovery will remain elusive”.
New York – Harga minyak mentah jatuh lagi, Rabu atau Kamis (21/01/2016) pagi WIB) kehilangan 6,7 persen di New York tanpa adanya tanda-tanda pengetatan persediaan dan di tengah perkiraan ekonomi global yang suram.
Patokan AS, minyak mentah West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman Februari, turun USid=”mce_marker”,91 menjadi US$26,55 per barel, tingkat terendah sejak Mei 2003. WTI diperdagangkan serendah US$26,19 per barel selama sesi, hari terakhir untuk kontrak Februari.
Kerugian juga berlanjut di perdagangan London, tapi tidak seberat WTI. Minyak mentah Brent North Sea untuk pengiriman Maret anjlok menjadi 27,88 dolar AS per barel, turun 88 sen dari Selasa.
Pasar masih dalam proses mencari posisi terbawah, kata analis Oliver Sloup di iiTrader.com.
Sloup mengatakan akhir kontrak WTI Februari bisa memperburuk kerugian dan dapat menyebabkan rebound” dengan kontrak baru Maret.
“Di masa lalu ketika kita telah melihat kontrak berjangka keluar dari papan perdagangan, kita telah benar-benar melihat bagian terbawah jangka pendek di pasar. Jadi kita tidak akan terkejut melihat sedikit lompatan,” imbuh dia.
JAKARTA. Harga minyak dunia terus mengalami penurunan hingga dibawah USD30. Saat ini, harga minyak Brent turun ke tingkat USD28 per barel. Anjloknya harga minyak dunia dipengaruhi jumlah pasokan minyak yang mengalami kelebihan namun tak seiring dengan jumlah permintaan. Terlebih, negara yang tergabung dalam organisasi pengekspor minyak dunia (OPEC) enggan memotong produksinya.
Kondisi ini semakin diperparah setelah pencabutan sanksi internasional terhadap Iran. Pasalnya, Iran kembali leluasa melakukan ekspor global terhadap minyaknya yang membuat pasokan minyak global semakin melimpah.
Anjoknya harga minyak berdampak pada peforma sejumlah perusahaan minyak di dunia. Untuk dapat melakukan efisiensi, perusahaan melakukan berbagai cara mulai dari penurunan biaya operasi hingga pemangkasan jumlah karyawannya. Berikut empat perusahaan minyak yang mengalami imbas anjloknya harga minyak seperti dirangkum Okezone, Kamis (21/1/2016).
Chevron Pacific Indonesia adalah salah satu perusahaan yang dikabarkan memangkas jumlah karyawan lantaran anjloknya harga minyak dunia. Untuk melakukan penghematan, perusahaan energi raksasa asal Amerika Serikat (AS) ini akan memangkas sekira 1.500 karyawannya. PHK tersebut akan berlangsung di sekira 24 grup bisnis yang ada di perusahaan. Target pengurangan biaya dari PHK ini mencapai sekira USD1 miliar.
Perusahaan minyak dan gas milik pemerintah Malaysia ini mengaku dalam kesulitan besar menghadapi kondisi pasar global. Untuk mengatasi ini, Petronas akan memangkas belanja modal dan belanja operasi untuk empat tahun ke depan sekira 50 miliar ringgit Malaysia atau setara USD11,42 miliar (4,377 ringgit Malaysia per USD). Selain itu, Petronas juga akan mengumumkan perombakan organisasi pada Maret 2016 mendatang, perombakan meliputi pemotongan gaji mulai dari 20 persen hingga 30 persen. Perombakan ini secara otomatis akan mengurangi jumlah staf kontrak yang dipekerjakan.
Perusahaan minyak asal Belanda, Royal Dutch Shell akan melakukan pemutusan hubungan kerja (PHK) terhadap 10.000 karyawannya setelah merger dengan BG Group. Tidak hanya itu, Shell juga akan menjual aset senilai USD30 miliar. Tindakan PHK dan penjualan aset dilakukan guna melindungi profitabilitas perusahaan di era murahnya harga minyak.
Menghadapi anjlok harnya minyak dunia, membuat perusahaan milik Indonesia ini harus mengambil langkah menurunkan biaya operasi sebanyak 30 persen. Bahkan, Pertamina memungkinkan akan melakukan pemangkasan jumlah karyawan. Meski mengaku masih mencari jalan untuk mengatasi kondisi pasar global dengan mempertimbangkan masalah bonus dan kesejahteraan karyawan, namun dipastikan langkah paling akhir yang dilakukan Pertamina adalah pengurangan tenaga kerja.
London, Nov 27, 2015 (AFP)
World oil prices rose this week on concerns that heightened geopolitical tensions could disrupt Middle East supplies despite a market awash with crude.
Traders were turning their attention to next week’s OPEC output meeting to see if the oil producers’ cartel will slash high output levels.
The 12-nation OPEC, which counts the world’s biggest oil producer Saudi Arabia among its members as well as Nigeria, Venezuela and Iran, holds a regular meeting in Vienna on December 4.
Most analysts expect the cartel to stick to its decision taken at the last meeting in June, when OPEC defied calls to cut output despite sliding oil prices, so extending its strategy of preserving market share and fending off competition from the US shale energy boom.
Keeping the status quo would see the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ official production target left at 30 million barrels per day — where it has stood for four years — following pressure from cartel kingpin Saudi Arabia on the other members.
“We continue to believe that there will not be any change in Saudi or OPEC policy” in Vienna, noted Societe Generale analyst Michael Wittner.
“Oil market oversupply will continue through next year, due to resilient US production — even if it is declining — high OPEC output led by Saudi Arabia and Iraq and the gradual return of Iran starting in” 2016, he added.
OPEC member Iran last week said it would not negotiate with the cartel over a planned half million barrels per day oil production hike once sanctions are lifted.
Despite a supply glut that has caused crude prices to more than halve over the past 18 months — due primarily to high output from US shale rock but also owing to weaker Chinese demand — Iran has consistently said it plans to up its output when nuclear-related sanctions are lifted under a deal agreed in July with world powers.
Downward pressure on the oil market this week was meanwhile capped by the shooting down by Turkey of a Russian fighter jet on the Syrian border.
But reports that Russia is not taking military action against Turkey in retaliation eased fears that the tense situation in the region could escalate and disrupt Middle East oil supplies.
Moscow said retaliatory measures would focus on using its leverage to tighten the screws on Turkey’s economy, including halting joint economic projects.
Next week will see traders monitoring also the meeting of the Federal Reserve, when policymakers are expected to lift US interest rates for the first time in almost a decade.
A hike would likely boost the dollar, making oil priced in the US unit more expensive for holders of weaker currencies.
By late Friday in London, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in January edged higher to $44.93 a barrel from $44.66 a barrel one week earlier.
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for January stood at $42.02 a barrel compared with $40.39 for the expired December contract one week earlier.
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New York, Nov 24, 2015 (AFP)
A jump in petroleum-linked shares helped lift US stocks Tuesday after the Turkish downing of a Russian fighter jet on the Syrian border sparked a rally in the oil market.
Dow member ExxonMobil gained 2.0 percent while smaller oil producer Apache jumped 4.2 percent as sharp words between Turkey and Russia over the incident raised the fear of an escalation in tensions that could potentially affect the oil-rich Middle East.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 19.51 points (0.11 percent) at 17,812.19.
The broad-based S&P 500 rose 2.55 (0.12 percent) to 2,089.14, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index edged up 0.33 (0.01 percent) to 5,102.81.
Government data upgraded US economic growth in the third quarter to 2.1 percent from the prior estimate of 1.5 percent. On the downside, the Conference Board’s read of consumer confidence tumbled to 90.4 in November from October, due mainly to consumers’ less positive view of the jobs market.
Travel stocks retreated after the State Department late Monday issued a global advisory warning US citizens of “increased terrorist threats” in the wake of the Paris attacks.
Expedia fell 2.9 percent, Priceline 1.9 percent and TripAdvisor 2.2 percent. United Continental dropped 3.0 percent and Delta Air Lines lost 3.1 percent.
Drug giants Pfizer and Allergan rose 2.0 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively, one day after unveiling their $160 billion mega-merger.
Cybersecurity company Palo Alto Networks gained 6.3 percent on news that revenue for the quarter ending October 31 grew 55 percent to $297.2 million.
Xerox dipped 1.3 percent as activist investor Carl Icahn disclosed a 7.13 percent stake in the company and said he planned to potentially seek board representation
NXP Semiconductors climbed 6.1 percent after announcing that US securities officials cleared its proposed sale of its RP Power business to Jianguang Asset Management for $1.8 billion.
marketwatch: Oil futures edged higher on Monday in volatile trade as the market reacted to Saudi Arabia’s pledge to work with global oil producers to help stabilize prices.
January West Texas Intermediate crude CLF6, +0.64% added 17 cents, or 0.4%, to $42.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude LCOF6, +1.41% was up 50 cents, or 1.1%, to $45.16 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange.
Oil futures had spiked higher, with WTI futures trading as high as $42.75 a barrel, after the Saudi Press Agency reiterated that the country was ready to work with oil producing and exporting nations toward stable prices. The rebound soon lost steam, however, as analysts noted the remarks were in line with previous Saudi statements.
“We are constantly bouncing from the area of $40 and if the Saudis do not deliver what they have said … we could see the oil price dropping below the $35 level,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade. “To trade on these headlines is always a very dangerous strategy as volatility picks up substantially.”
So far, there’s little indication Saudi Arabia is prepared to begin cutting production, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.
Flynn said much of the market action appeared technical in nature, with the January Nymex WTI contract moving lower to largely fill the gap left on the continuous futures chart after the expiration of the December contract at $40.35 a barrel last week.
After coming within almost a nickel of closing the gap, the Saudi news offered an excuse to cover short positions, he said.
Analysts said oil might have trouble shaking off weakness amid a stronger U.S. dollar and persistent worries about the global surplus of crude. The ICE U.S. dollar index DXY, +0.18% climbed Monday on growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise the interest rates in December.
But for now, energy futures prices followed oil higher, with Nymex December gasoline RBZ5, +2.19% adding 2.5 cents, or 2%,to $1.315 a gallon and December heating oil HOZ5, +2.10% tacking on 2.4 cents, or 1.8%, to $1.395 a gallon.
December natural gas NGZ15, +1.31% rose a penny to $2.154 per million British thermal units.
Jakarta detik -Masih rendahnya harga minyak dunia membuat kinerja perusahaan migas jalan di tempat. Bahkan, banyak dari perusahaan migas ini yang terlilit utang.
Bahkan dengan utang yang menggunung itu, banyak perusahaan migas berpotensi gagal bayar utang tak lama lagi. Ada juga yang peringkat utangnya yang sudah diturunkan oleh Moody’s.
“Sektor energi sekarang yang paling bermasalah. Ada 79 perusahaan yang berpotensi gagal bayar utang tahun ini, seperempatnya adalah perusahaan minyak,” kata Sharon Ou, Analis Senior Kebijakan Utang Moody’s seperti dikutip CNBC, Senin (22/11/2015).
Para perusahaan energi ini sebelumnya sudah menarik utang cukup besar ketika sedang menikmati masa jayanya, saat harga minyak tembus di atas US$ 150 per barel.
Sementara sekarang harga minyak bergerak di bawah US$ 50 per barel sejak pertengahan tahun ini. Ini bukan situasi yang baik bagi mereka. Alhasil, mereka kesulitan membayar utang-utang yang menggunung itu.
Menurut CEO perusahaan investasi Avenue Capital Group, Marc Lasry, para perusahaan ini menarik total pinjaman sekitar US$ 250-300 miliar awal tahun ini. Jumlahnya jatuh lebih besar ketimbang tahun sebelumnya yang hanya US$ 100 miliar.
Bank sentral AS, The Federal Reserve (The Fed), sudah memberi peringatan adanya kredit bermasalah di sektor eksplorasi migas, produksi, hingga jasa energi pada awal November ini.
Perbankan AS juga mulai memberi peringatan terhadak sektor yang sama, seperti Wells Fargo, Bank of America, dan JPMorgan Chase.
Berbagai bank di AS mulai lakukan renegosiasi pinjamannya dengan perusahaan migas, sementara beberapa bank lainnya justru sudah berhenti memberi kredit ke sektor yang sama.