minyaaa(di bawah 61)aAK … 14 Agustus 2015

Metrotvnews.com, New York: Harga minyak mentah dunia kembali mendekati titik nadirnya di 2015 ini setelah pemadaman kilang dan data yang menunjukkan persediaan pasokan kilang minyak kembali berlebih.

Reuters melansir, Jumat (14/8/2015), harga minyak mentah Amerika Serikat (AS) CLc1 menetap USD1,07 di USD42,23 per barel setelah sebelumnya diperdagangkan sebesar USD41,91 per barel.

Angka tersebut merupakan yang terendah sejak Maret 2009, ketika krisis keuangan mendatangkan malapetaka bagi kejayaan harga minyak. Sementara harga minyak mentah Brent LCOc1 mentah tergelincir 1,1 persen menjadi USD49,13 per barel.

Pelemahan harga minyak mentah ini karena kekhawatiran investor terhadap perang mata uang atau penyusutan aset yang berkurang. Ekuitas AS terhantam harga energi yang lemah, sehingga menyeret saham perusahaan-perusahaan menjadi lebih rendah.

Sekadar diketahui, ketika harga minyak melemah, imbal hasil obligasi menguat di pasar utama setelah bank sentral Tiongkok meyakinkan investor tidak ada alasan mata uangnya terus jatuh. Namun demikian, hal tersebut menyeret harga minyak jatuh ke posisi terendah dalam enam tahun akibat kekhawatiran pasokan.

Meskipun demikian, mata uang yuan melemah untuk hari ketiga dan beberapa analis memperkirakan adanya penurunan lebih lanjut dalam menghadapi ekonomi lemah. Bahkan, Wakil Gubernur Bank Rakyat Tiongkok Yi Gang menolak pembicaraan tentang devaluasi yuan lebih dalam.



Singapore, Aug 13, 2015 (AFP)
Oil prices climbed in Asia Thursday but lingering worries over the crude supply glut held down gains sparked by stronger US demand and a falling dollar, analysts said.US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for September delivery turned higher in afternoon trade, rising 10 cents to $43.40. Brent crude for September gained 15 cents to $49.81.Prices had moved off six-year lows on Wednesday on news that US crude supplies fell — a sign of stronger demand in the world’s top oil consumer — and the dollar declined.The US Department of Energy Wednesday said the estimated amount of crude oil in the country’s commercial storage tanks tumbled 1.7 million barrels to 453.6 million barrels in the week ending August 7.The report also said US domestic oil production fell 70,000 barrels a day to about 9.4 million barrels, which is positive for oil prices in an oversupplied market.

The dollar took a hit after China’s surprise move to devalue the yuan, with analysts saying this could delay plans by the US central bank to raise interest rates, a move previously expected as early as September.

A weaker US currency makes dollar-priced oil cheaper for holders of other units, perking up demand and supporting prices.

But analysts said oil prices were being weighed down by continued concerns over a glut in the world crude market.

“The market is just bearish overall,” said Daniel Ang, an investment analyst with Phillip Futures in Singapore.

“There’s still no big change to the supply and demand fundamentals in the oil market,” he told AFP.

Sanjeev Gupta, who heads the Asia Pacific oil and gas practice at professional services organisation EY, said the decline in the yuan has “also raised doubts on China’s appetite” for commodities, including oil.

China is the world’s second-biggest economy and its top energy consuming nation.

Posted on Tue, 11 August 2015 21:35 | 0


With West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent close to their January 2015 lowssome readers are wondering how these lows compare with historic lows when the oil price is adjusted for inflation (deflated). BP just happen to provide an oil price series that is adjusted for inflation (Figure 1). The data are annual averages and based on Brent since 1984. Annual averages conceal the extreme swings in price that tend to be short lived. At time of writing WTI front month future contract was $44.42 and Brent front month future was $49.92.

Figure 1 The blue line gives the annual average oil price (Brent since 1984) in money of the day and the red line adjusted for inflation expressed in $2014. Three large spikes in the oil price are evident in the 1860s, 1970s and 2010s. It is notable that the magnitude of each spike is similar, of the order $100 to $120 (adjusted to 2014 $). The 1860s and 1970s spikes were followed by long bear markets for the oil price, lasting for 110 years in the case of 1864 to 1973.

Related: Congress To Lift Oil Export Ban Next Month?

To understand what was going on 1861 to 1973 I suggest readers read The Prize:The Epic Quest for Oil Money and Power that earned author Daniel Yergin the Pulitzer Prize. It is a tremendous read. Most of us are however, more interested in how today’s prices compare with recent slumps, most notably the slump of 1986 and 1998 (Figure 2).

Figure 2 The main events, Acts 1 to 6, are described briefly below.

To get straight to the point. Brent will need to fall below $30 to match the lows seen in 1986 and to below $20 to match the lows seen in 1998.

Related: Frack Now, Pay Later: A New Era In U.S. Oil?

WTI in particular is trading close to its support level of $43.39 marked on 17 March 2015. If traders push the price below that level then the price could fall a lot lower for a brief period. At the fundamental level, supply and demand need to be rebalanced and the main problem is over-supply of LTO from the USA and of OPEC crude depending upon which way one views the problem. The recent price action since September 2014 has been brutal on producers but not yet brutal enough to remove the 3 million bpd over supply from the system.

I do not believe that the white knight of increased demand is about to gallop over the hill and therefore see a risk of substantially lower price in the months ahead. Colleague Arthur Berman has a somewhat more upbeat perspective.

Historic Fundamentals

The large scale structure of oil price history is shaped by supply and demand driven by both political dimensions and industry action and innovation. The main landmarks are:
1. The 1973 Yom Kippur war followed by the 1974 oil embargo. The amount of crude withheld from market by OPEC was relatively small (Figure 3) but was sufficient to cause the first oil price shock.

Figure 3 Oil exports for selected OPEC countries based on BP 2014.

2. The 1979 Iranian Revolution followed by the 1980 Iran-Iraq war led to the second oil shock. The price reaction at this time did not reflect the fundamentals of supply and demand and gravity soon took over sending the price down again in the years that followed together with OPEC market share.

3. The 1986 slump was caused by OPEC reasserting its authority and trying to reclaim market share that led to a prolonged bear market that culminated in 1998 when the world was awash in oil.

Related: When Will Oil Prices Turn Around?

4. The low point since the first oil shock was marked by $10 oil (money of the day) in 1998. I remember it well since I was running an oil related business at that time. This heralded in a new era for the industry that went through a massive restructuring with many household names being swallowed up by the super-majors.

5. The commodities Bull Run that began around 2002 that lasted to 2008 or 2014 depending upon one’s perspective had complex reasons from a perceived peak in conventional oil production, the Chinese industrial revolution, expansion of debt, zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and bubblenomics. Rune Likvern gives a good account of the links between the oil price and economic policies.

6. The 2008 financial crash brought an end to phase 1 of the Bull Run that was re-inflated by OPEC cutting supply and QE blowing more liquidity into the bubble until 2014.

Rune argues that an end to QE in the USA is implicated in recent global currency adjustments and the rout of the oil price and that is surely part of the story. But the OPEC policy of maintaining market share and over supply of either LTO or OPEC crude have also played a prominent role in Act 7 that is still being played out and still has a way to run before a new market equilibrium is reached.

By Euan Mearns


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