minyAAA(DOUBLE BOTTOM)aaaK @$60… 110615


Oil Forming A Double Bottom?

By (Ross Woodfield) |  Commodities  |  Mar 16, 2015 07:50AM GMT  |
 

The oil markets were plenty active late last week as the short term support levels broke down. Could a large double bottom be forming on the weekly charts denoting a larger reversal structure that the market has been waiting on? Alternatively, could it be temporary support ahead of a larger shift lower?

Crude Oil Weekly Chart

Crude Oil Weekly Chart

Oil prices tumbled late in the week, down to the low seen in January at $43.57 a barrel. This came on the back of a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) which showed production in the US expanded by 115,000 barrels a day. This has piled on the bearish sentiment as the market was hoping supply would contract with the falling prices.

Further adding bearish sentiment was news that storage facilities at Cushing were near to reaching capacity. If this happens, we may see a glut be forced onto the market, which will be detrimental to oil prices. Certainly the support at $43.57 a barrel would come under serious pressure.

The technical pattern of a double bottom could be forming at present as the support at $43.57 holds firm. There would have been plenty of buy orders at this level as it represents the low reached back in January. This structure will take many weeks to be confirmed, but any believers will be buying up with tight stop losses underneath the support. For some time the market has been talking about oil prices finding a bottom and this could be the beginning of it, but there is a long way to go.

The flipside is that this is merely a temporary halt in the continuation of the bearish trend. The most recent weekly candle on the above chart certainly looks impulsive and could carry a lot of momentum. If the support at $43.57 fails, there will be plenty of stop losses triggered (from all those buy orders above) that will add further momentum to the breakout.

Crude Oil Daily Chart

Crude Oil Daily Chart

Either way it plays out, Oil is at a critical point that will likely determine prices for the next 6 months. A breakout lower will look for targets at $39.48, $37.43 and $33.56 with $33.56 being the low found back in 2008 and likely to be a solid level. If the current support level holds, look for resistance at 48.83, 45.59 and 59.17.

The market is at a turning point with the possibility of a double bottom forming that could lead to a reversal of the bear trend. Alternatively a breakout will see a continuation of the trend which would target the 2008 lows.

JAKARTA. Harga minyak mentah bangkit menembus level US$ 60 per barel. Minyak terangkat spekulasi kenaikan permintaan dari negara-negara maju. Sedangkan stok minyak Amerika Serikat (AS) susut dan dollar terkoreksi.

Mengacu data Bloomberg, Rabu (10/6) pukul 17.00 WIB, harga minyak West Texas Intermediate (WTI) kontrak pengiriman bulan Juli 2015 senilai US$ 61,43 per barel atau naik 2,14% dibandingkan hari sebelumnya. Selama sepekan, harga terangkat 3%.

Deddy Yusuf Siregar, Research and Analyst PT Fortis Asia Futures, menilai, kenaikan harga minyak ditopang oleh penambahan permintaan dari negara-negara maju untuk kebutuhan musim panas sebesar 38.000 barel per hari.

Selain itu, Energy Information Administration (EIA) AS merevisi prediksi kenaikan permintaan minyak dari sebelumnya 340.000 barel menjadi 380.000 barel per hari. Lalu inflasi China bulan Mei 2015 sebesar 1,2% atau lebih baik dari posisi periode sama tahun sebelumnya 1,5%. “Data inflasi Tiongkok yang menguat membuat harga minyak ikut melambung,” ujarnya.

Data pasokan dan stok minyak AS turut mengerek harga. American Petroleum Institute menyebutkan, pasokan minyak Negeri Paman Sam terkoreksi 6,7 juta barel per 5 Juni 2015. Seirama, data Bloomberg memperlihatkan, stok minyak mentah AS menciut 1,5 juta barel menjadi 475,9 juta barel pekan lalu.

Depresiasi dollar

Selanjutnya AS akan merilis data stok minyak. Prediksi para analis, stok minyak AS kembali berkurang 1,5 juta barel. Jika proyeksi itu benar, harga minyak kembali naik. Tetapi Deddy mengingatkan, penurunan stok minyak AS diimbangi dengan melubernya pasokan minyak dari negara-negara Timur Tengah dan Organisasi Negara-Negara Pengekspor Minyak alias OPEC.

Iran juga berencana meningkatkan produksi minyak hingga 1 juta barel per hari dalam enam bulan mendatang setelah sanksi internasional terhadap Iran dicabut. Alhasil, kenaikan harga minyak tertahan.

Sementara itu, Wahyu Tri Wibowo, analis PT Central Capital Futures, memandang bahwa kenaikan harga minyak merupakan dampak pelemahan indeks dollar AS. “Data ekonomi AS bagus namun indeks dollar belum bisa menguat. Karena ada isu kuatnya dollar sebagai ancaman ekonomi mulai berasa di Gedung Putih,” terangnya.

Rabu (10/6) pukul 16.00 WIB, indeks dollar melemah 0,5% menjadi 94,692. Jika indeks dollar AS kian melemah, maka penguatan harga minyak bisa berlanjut. Secara teknikal Deddy menjelaskan, harga bergerak di atas moving average (MA) 50, 100 dan 200. Stochastic menguat ke level 53. Relative strength index (RSI) di level 58.

Sementara indikator moving verage convergence divergence (MACD) berada di area positif, yakni 0,52. Prediksi Deddy, Kamis (11/6), harga minyak bergerak di kisaran US$ 59,59 sampai US$ 61,5 per barel. Sepekan, harga minyak akan bergulir di US$ 59-US$ 62 per barel.

Sedangkan prediksi Wahyu, harga minyak sepekan ke depan bergerak dalam rentang US$ 56-US$ 64 per barel.

http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/harga-minyak-kembali-bangkit
Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID

Singapore, June 10, 2015 (AFP)
Oil prices extended gains Wednesday on expectations of a huge decline in US crude reserves, signalling that demand is improving in the world’s top economy and a global supply glut could soon end, analysts said.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for July delivery gained 79 cents to $60.93 in Asia, while Brent crude for July was up 61 cents to $65.49 in mid-morning trade.

That came the day after strong gains that saw WTI jump $2 while Brent closed up $2.19.

Industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday reportedly signalled a 6.7 million barrel drop in US supplies in the week to June 5, ahead of the latest official stockpiles report due later Wednesday.

“A big drop in API inventories provided some justification for today’s big move upward,” said Nicholas Teo, market analyst at CMC Markets in Singapore.

A dip in US stockpiles is seen as signalling healthy demand in the world’s top crude consumer, supporting global prices.

Dealers expect that a drawdown of the United States’ burgeoning reserves during the summer months, coupled with a slowdown in its shale output, could whittle down excess global supplies.

A surplus of US stocks was a key reason oil prices collapsed by more than 50 percent between June and January.

“We believe that only (if) US production starts to ease off, then we would be seeing improvements to the supply situation,” said Daniel Ang, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

The Department of Energy’s (DoE) petroleum report last week showed US output rose 20,000 barrels a day to 9.59 million in the week to May 29 — the second consecutive gain and the highest since January 1983.

In its short-term energy outlook Tuesday, the DoE said US oil production is expected to “generally decline” through early 2016.

JAKARTA – Harga minyak mentah selama tiga pekan berada pada level tertinggi bahkan sempat menyentuh level USD61 per barel, namun harga minyak kembali terkoreksi pada perdagangan hari ini.

Pada perdagangan hari ini, patokan AS, minyak mentah light sweet atau West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman Juli turun USD1,62 menjadi USD59,64 per barel dalam perdagangan di New York Mercantile Exchange.

Menurut Analis MNC Securities Sabrina Raisa, minyak mengalami pembalikan arah terutama saat ini karena harga minyak masih menunggu data dari OPEC.

“Selama tiga pekan bertahan di level tertingginya, hari ini turun karena masih menunggu data OPEC,” katanya dalam Power Breakfast di MNC Channel, Kamis (4/6/2015).

Sabrina menambahkan, saat ini OPEC belum mau meminimalisir produksi sehingga persediaan belum berubah.

“Minyak masih pembalikan arah, saat ini minyak menunggu data dari opec karena pasokan tersebut belum mau diminimalisi, sehingga belum berubah,”tambah dia.

Sementara itu, patokan Eropa, minyak mentah Brent untuk penyerahan Juli, kehilangan USD1,69 menjadi USD63,80 per barel di perdagangan London.

http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/06/04/19/1159918/tunggu-data-opec-harga-minyak-turun-dari-level-tertinggi
Sumber : OKEZONE.COM

 

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA–Harga minyak mentah dunia turun dalam perdagangan Asia pada Selasa (2/6/2015) karena penguatan dolar AS.

Adapun, investor memperkirakan kartel OPEC akan mempertahankan tingkat produksinya pada pertemuan penting pekan ini meskipun pasokan global berlimpah, kata para analis.

Harga patokan Amerika Serikat, minyak mentah light sweet atau West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman Juli melemah tujuh sen menjadi 60,13 dolar AS per barel, sedangkan minyak mentah Brent untuk Juli turun 15 sen menjadi 64,73 dolar AS per barel dalam perdagangan sore.

United Overseas Bank Singapura mengatakan harga turun karena dampak dolar AS yang menguat dan kekhawatiran pasokan tetap tinggi ketika OPEC bersiap untuk melakukan pertemuan pekan ini guna memutuskan target produksi.

Dolar berada di 124,65 yen di Tokyo pada Selasa (2/6/2015), sedikit lebih rendah dari 124,81 yen pada Senin (1/6/2015) sore di New York, tapi jauh di atas 124,12 yen pada Jumat lalu dan tertinggi sejak Desember 2002.

Penguatan greenback membuat minyak yang dihargakan dalam dolar AS lebih mahal untuk pembeli yang menggunakan mata uang lemah, sehingga mengurangi permintaan dan mendorong harga yang lebih rendah.

Analis memperkirakan Organisasi Negara Pengekspor Minyak (OPEC) setuju untuk terus memproduksi minyak pada jumlah yang sama ketika mereka bertemu di Wina pada Jumat (5/6/2015). Kartel itu memproduksi sekitar 30% minyak mentah dunia.

November tahun lalu OPEC menolak memotong target produksi harian 30 juta barel, yang telah diterapkan lebih dari tiga setengah tahun, meskipun pasokan global melimpah.

Langkah yang mengirim harga minyak yang sudah turun makin jatuh secara luas dianggap sebagai upaya taktis untuk meningkatkan permintaan dan merugikan produsen non-OPEC, terutama produsen serpih minyak Amerika Serikat.

Ketika ditanya di Wina, apakah strategi ini bekerja, Menteri Perminyakan Arab Saudi Ali al-Naimi pada Senin mengatakan: “Jawabannya adalah ya … Permintaan sedang meningkat. Pasokan sedang melambat. Ini adalah fakta. Pasar sedang melakukan stabilisasi.”

“Anda dapat melihat bahwa saya tidak tertekan, bahwa saya senang,” katanya seperti dilansir kantor berita AFP

 

NEW YORK kontan. Rabu kemarin (15/4), harga minyak dunia bergerak ke atas level US$ 56 untuk pertama kalinya di 2015. Dengan demikian, ini merupakan hari kelima kenaikan harga minyak dunia.

Padahal, beberapa waktu terakhir, konsumen AS menikmati bulan madu berupa murahnya harga bensin pada tahun ini akibat anjloknya harga minyak. Sekadar informasi, harga rata-rata bensin AS per galonnya sebesar US$ 2,39. Berdasarkan data AAA, angka ini di bawah harga rata-rata bensin tahun lalu yang sebesar US$ 3,63.

  • Lalu, apakah masa harga bensin murah di Amerika akan segera berakhir?

“Saat ini, harga minyak tengah berupaya menembus resisten level yang krusial yang dapat memicu harga naik sebesar US$ 6 hingga US$ 10 ke level US$ 60,” tulis Timothy Anderson, Managing Director MND Partners.

Kenaikan harga minyak kemarin memicu aksi beli saham-saham energi di Wall Street. Menurut Anderson, lompatan harga si emas hitam menyebabkan investor lebih percaya diri untuk masuk ke saham-saham berbasis energi.

Sejumlah saham energi AS yang diburu investor pada Rabu (15) kemarin antara lain Range Resources yang naik hampir 6%, Transocean naik 9%, Exxon naik 2%, Royal Duth Shell naik 1,7%, Chevron naik 1,5%, dan Conoco Phillips naik 1,4%.

Sektor energi menjadi salah satu sektor yang memiliki performa terbaik pada dua hari terakhir. Kenaikan sektor ini berhasil mengangkat bursa AS.

Namun, yang perlu diingat, saham-saham tersebut sudah mengalami penurunan dua digit (dalam %) dari tahun lalu. Meski banyak analis yang yakin harga minyak akan mendaki lagi, namun, banyak juga pihak yang meragukan apakah harga si emas hitam bisa kembali ke level US$ 100 dalam waktu dekat.

“Kami percaya saat ini masih terlalu dini bagi investor untuk membeli minyak. Kami melihat pasar minyak masih berupaya mencari keseimbangan,” papar Paul Christopher, Head of International Strategy Wells Fargo.

  • AS akan menjadi negara independen energi?

Anjloknya harga minyak dunia dipicu oleh melimpahnya suplai minyak global. OPEC, yang dipimpin oleh Arab Saudi, sangat vokal menyerukan bahwa pihaknya tidak akan memangkas produksi. Bahkan OPEC kembali menaikkan produksi lagi pada Maret.

Di sisi lain, Amerika juga tengah menuju tingkat produksi ke rekor tertinggi di tahun 2015, bahkan melampaui produksi pada 1970 silam. Kenaikan produksi minyak AS ini yang kemudian memicu spekulasi bahwa AS akan menjadi negara yang mandiri atas energi. Departemen Energi AS memproyeksikan bahwa Amerika bisa menjadi negara yang independen atas energi -ekspor minyak lebih tinggi dari impor- pada 2019 medatang.

Departemen Energi AS juga meramal, jika harga minyak naik ke atas US$ 100 per barel, hal itu akan semakin mengerek tingkat produksi AS dan memangkas permintaan akan minyak impor. “Dengan demikian, AS bisa menjadi negara pengekspor energi di 2019,” jelas Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Namun, lanjut EIA, harga minyak masih akan bergerak moderat beberapa waktu ke depan. Itu berarti, AS tidak akan menjadi negara yang independen energi hingga 2028.

Hanya saja, meski harga minyak masih rendah, tingkat produksi minyak mentah AS akan mencapai rekor tertingginya pada tahun ini.

Lonjakan produksi minyak AS, lanjut EIA, akan tetap menekan harga minyak di bawah US$ 80 hingga 2020 dan di bawah US$ 100 per barel hingga setidaknya tahun 2028.

  • Apa yang menyebabkan kenaikan harga minyak yang tiba-tiba beberapa waktu belakangan?

Faktor utama yang mendorong kenaikan harga minyak sepertinya dipicu oleh data yang dirilis Energy Information Administration (EIA)  AS yang menunjukkan bahwa suplai minyak di Amerika tidak banyak bertambah pada pekan lalu.

Adapun faktor lainnya adalah kenaikan permintaan minyak global, khususnya setelah perekonomian Eropa tampak lebih sehat dari prediksi sebelumnya.

Selain itu, seruan anggota Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agar memangkas produksi juga turut menyulut kenaikan harga bahan bakar ini dalam lima hari terakhir.

Asal tahu saja, Iran juga mengikuti jejak anggota OPEC lain, yakni Libia untuk meminta organisasi tersebut mengurangi produksi. Menteri Perminyakan Iran, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh mengatakan, anggota-anggota OPEC perlu memotong volume produksi minimal 5% atau setara 1,5 juta barel per hari dari kuota produksi.

Sikap ini berseberangan dengan keputusan Arab Saudi pada November lalu yang menjaga produksi kolektif sebesar 30 juta barel sehari. Padahal suplai yang melimpah memicu harga jatuh sejak tahun lalu.

Analis SoeGee Futures Nizar Hilmy mengatakan, aksi Iran dan Libia memicu spekulasi suplai mungkin bisa susut. Pasar kian optimistis, EIA melaporkan, produksi shale oil di North Dakota, Amerika Serikat akan berkurang 57.000 barel per hari mulai Mei nanti. Dus, produksi minyak AS bisa berkurang menjadi 4,9 juta barel per hari.

“Memang, sentimen ini relatif sesaat, sebab stok minyak global masih banyak. Tapi ada harapan OPEC mengurangi produksi dalam jangka panjang,” kata Nizar.

Harga minyak hingga akhir pekan ini akan dipengaruhi data stok di AS. Sejumlah analis memperkirakan, stok bertambah 3,5 juta barel per pekan lalu. Namun, pertambahannya lebih rendah ketimbang pekan sebelumnya, 10,9 juta barel.

“Jika data sesuai ekspektasi, reli harga minyak bisa berlanjut. Sebaliknya, jika di atas perkiraan, laju kenaikan akan tertahan,” tutur Nizar. Ia menebak, hingga akhir pekan ini, harga minyak mentah bergerak di kisaran US$ 52 hingga US$ 55 per barel.

Editor: Barratut Taqiyyah
SUMBER: CNBC,BLOOMBERG
By Nick Cunningham
Posted on Wed, 01 April 2015 15:46 | 3

Oil prices will remain subdued for the next 20 years.

That comes from a new policy brief from Stanford economist Frank Wolak, who says that a series of phenomena – surging U.S. shale production, a weakening OPEC, the shale revolution spreading globally, efficiencies in drilling, and more natural gas substitution for oil – will combine to prevent oil prices from rising above $100 per barrel anytime soon.

Wolak correctly identifies several trends that are already underway, several of which contributed to the 2014-2015 oil bust.

But there are very good reasons as to why the notion that oil prices will not rebound and instead stay in a moderate band of $50 to $60 per barrel over the next 20 years, as Wolak suggests, is a bit optimistic (or pessimistic, depending on your point of view). Wolak does offer some caveats for why his scenario for tepid oil prices may not play out, but they are treated more as outside risks rather than real possibilities.

Related: Earthquake Case Could Doom Fracking In Oklahoma

Let’s examine some of his points. First is the argument that shale production has truly upended global supplies. Citing a 5 million barrel-per-day increase from North America – 4 million from U.S. shale and 1 million from Canada’s tar sands – Wolak wisely notes the role that shale has played in causing oil prices to crash over the past year. But the shale boom will likely be temporary. Most estimates project that U.S. shale will begin to fizzle after the next five years or so. The IEA in its 2014 World Energy Outlook said that U.S. shale will peak and then decline in the early 2020’s. Some think it could happen even sooner.

After U.S. shale stops driving global growth, what are we left with? The IEA says that an overwhelming amount of oil growth will need to come from the Middle East, particularly from Iraq. Iraq, a war-torn country rife with insecurity and political gridlock, is expected to account for 50 percent of the growth in oil production that is needed in the 2020s. “We now have a problem,” IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol said at a February conference, referring to the world’s likely inability to meet rising demand over the next 20 years.

Moreover, an estimated $900 billion in investment each year will be needed to meet demand through 2030, an astronomic sum considering investment only reached a little under $700 billion in 2014, and is set to decline by around 17 percent in 2015. Massive cut backs in capital expenditures over the next few years will plant the seeds for the next oil price spike.

Related: US Oil Demand Is Alive And Well

Another major reason that Wolak cites for why oil prices will remain stable and moderate is the fact that the shale revolution will spread like wildfire around the world. That is possible. Countries like China, Russia, and Argentina have massive shale oil and gas resources that in some cases even surpass those of the United States. But the spread of shale technology has proven stubborn, owing to a very complex set of circumstances. In Europe, the excitement in Poland in particular has proven to be ill-founded. After failing to find any commercial volumes of oil and gas and drilling some dry holes, oil majors Chevron and ExxonMobil, among others, packed up and left. Opposition to fracking has also walled off major sources of energy in Europe.

In China, the going has been no better. The lack of infrastructure, complex geology, and increasingly scarce and contaminated water are all throwing up major roadblocks. Argentina is trying its best to replicate the shale boom, but a web of rules on the movement of capital, plus regulated prices that hurt investment over the long-term (but in the current low-price environment, are currently helping Argentina) could constrain further development.

On the other hand, Wolak does cite the fact that increasing global efforts to deal with carbon pollution, the falling cost of alternatives, standardization and innovation, and weaker-than-expected demand could all keep a lid on prices.

Related: Oil Prices To Fall Or Fly Depending On Iranian Nuclear Talks

Those are all very possible scenarios. But there is also a wide array of upside forces that Wolak leaves out. Just to name a few: rising interest rates will increase the cost of capital; a wave of bankruptcies this year could scare away banks, also increasing the cost of capital; declining conventional production; and the increasing shift to expensive oil (deep offshore, Arctic) to replace maturing fields will increase the marginal cost of production. Plus, if the world does experience fast and robust increases in oil demand (think China and India), can oil producers keep up?

In other words, Wolak’s scenario largely depends on several optimistic trends all coming true. If we have learned anything over the past year, it is that oil markets are highly volatile. A long and sustained period of moderate oil prices just isn’t likely.

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA— Harga minyak mentah dunia pada perdagangan Senin (20/4/2015) bergerak menguat signifikan.

Minyak West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman Mei 2015 pada perdagangan Senin dibuka naik 0,75% ke US$56,16 per barel. Pada pk. 07:05 WIB, jadi menguat 0,99% ke US$56,29 per barel.

Minyak Brent pada perdagangan Senin dibuka naik 0,63% ke US$63,85 per barel. Pada pk. 07:06 WIB jadi menguat 1,06% ke US$64,12/barel. Pada pk. 07:06 WIB jadi melejit 1,06% ke US$64,12/barel.

Bloomberg menyebutkan minyak menguat karena jumlah pengeboran anjungan lepas pantai (rig) aktif di Amerika Serikat turun ke level terendah sejak tahun 2010.

New York, April 14, 2015 (AFP)
Global oil prices rose for the fourth straight day Tuesday, with US prices jumping after a government report predicted a drop in US shale-oil production.

West Texas Intermediate for May delivery, the benchmark US futures contract, added $1.38 to close at $53.29 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent North Sea crude for May, the global benchmark traded in London, settled at $58.43 a barrel, up a modest 50 cents from Monday’s close.

“The EIA report on Monday seems to be carrying the day today,” said Robert Yawger of Mizuho Securities.

The US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration said that output from the country’s seven shale regions, which has been driving US crude production to a record high, looked set to fall by 57,000 barrels per day in May.

Analysts noted it was the first time the EIA had projected a drop since it began the monthly drilling productivity report in 2013.

“This is adding credence to the belief that lower prices and the precipitous drop in the rig count are finally impacting production, sending prices to test the highs last seen in early February,” said Matt Smith of Schneider Electric.

But Commerzbank analysts underscored the limited impact in the context of the copious global supply that has pushed prices about 50 percent lower since mid-2014.

“Compared to the current oversupply of up to two million barrels per day… this would be but a drop in the ocean,” they said in a research note.

Traders also expected another rise in US crude inventories to new record highs in Wednesday’s DoE report.

Tim Evans of Citi Futures predicted US crude stocks would rise by as much as four million barrels for the week ended April 10, including another gain at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point for WTI futures.

burs-vs/pmh

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